Seahawk Nerd
@SeahawkNerd
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Bringing mathematical thinking to all things Seattle Seahawks. Results are retrospective; process-based analysis is more predictive of future outcomes.
Joined May 2021
This is a portfolio of all my original work, in the form of a thread. Plots, charts, graphs, statistics, and analysis. By Seahawk Nerd.🧵
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If my math is correct, because the 49ers have clinched a playoff berth, if they lose to both the Colts tomorrow and the Bears next week, they essentially have nothing to play for in Week 18. Maybe they'll want to rest starters for the wild card game?
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Someone else who has Maye and Herbert top 2 in their MVP ballot!
If I had to submit an MVP ballot today: 1. Maye 2. Herbert 3. Stafford 4. Allen 5. Garrett
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Love seeing my 2023 draft crush blossom
I’ve seen enough. Parker Washington is the 2025 MVP
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A Floriday is what happens when “Why not?” meets “Why wait?”
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Love the dude but it was so obvious that he was never going to outgrow these in-game tantrums. Glad Seattle moved on instead of paying him.
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So, with the Panthers' win today, their motives against the Seahawks change slightly. They win the division if they beat TB in Week 18 regardless of Week 17 results. But, they can clinch before Week 18 if they beat Seattle and TB loses to Miami. Something to play for.
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Dude, move on and prepare for your next opponent. This is loser behavior.
Sean McVay advocates for a rule change that would treat backward passes during two-point conversion attempts the same as fumbles; such a rule would have wiped out last night's game-tying play.
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Good coaching wins championships.
Seen some people say Zach Charbonnet was only picking up the ball to hand it to an official on Seattle's wild 2-point try. NFL players do not go out of their way to do that. The Seahawks are taught to pick up every loose ball just in case. Charbonnet reiterated as much postgame
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So, Super Bowl matchups... In the AFC? Bills don't scare me. Patriots don't scare me. Broncos don't scare me. They already beat the Texans and Jaguars convincingly. I mean if I were setting odds, I'd make the Seahawks favorites to win the whole damn thing.
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I find it very likely Seattle beats the Panthers and 49ers and gets the 1 seed. The fans are bought back in. Nobody wants to come to Seattle in a January playoff game. They'd be favored against any possible NFC opponent.
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It's rare to be this close to 14 wins. This season has been absolutely magical. Mike Macdonald coming in and transforming an awful defense into an elite one. Bringing in Sam Darnold. JSN's breakout year. #1 ranked team by DVOA. Excellent special teams. I think this is the year.
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After the TNF win, I have had complete tunnel vision on the Seahawks' Super Bowl run. We take these opportunities for granted. Look how quickly the Lions' window closed. Two games from the 1 seed. A weak AFC. Lots of rookie contracts expiring soon. This may be their best shot.
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I asked Rashid Shaheed after the game about this return and he said: "We’ve been focused on that left return all week. We knew that they had kind of a weak point with their special teams and we were able to circle the punt return team and make a big play.” So Shaheed got Rams
Here was the Rams’ big special teams mistake Thursday night that contributed to their loss and the change that is being made.
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I'm not sure I can remember so much whining about NFL officials making the *correct call* as we have about the Charbonnet 2-pt conversion. Nobody is arguing that they got it wrong. They are complaining the rule exists. Seattle would have had a far more justifiable gripe if
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The Panthers beat the Bucs. What does that mean? Panthers can clinch the division versus the Seahawks if they win and the Bucs lose vs the Dolphins. More likely, the game against Seattle will not factor into their playoff clinching. They have to beat TB in Wk18.
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The Rams #1 seed odds took a significant drop with the Bears win, because the Rams now need three different teams to lose a game: The Seahawks, 49ers and Bears. They essentially need to win out and have it played out like this (assuming no Philip Rivers miracle against the
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Herbert is low-key having an MVP caliber season if you just turn on the film
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I don't see any red on Seattle's graph
Each Team's Net Success Rate (SR) by Game - Green bar = Higher offensive SR than opponent - Red bar = Lower offensive SR than opponent
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If you didn't already know it, spending the last 24 hours on twitter confirms that Rams fans are some of the worst NFL fans out there. Can't stand LA personalities.
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The four throws Sam Darnold made in overtime that changed everything. Dude completely transcended the narrative against the one defense that had given him fits, and he did it after that defense gave him fits again. This is a confidence-shifter in the building.
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