Timo Riske
@PFF_Moo
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Mathematician, Data science @PFF . The simple-minded thinks everything that didn't happen couldn't have happened. Tweets/opinions are my own.
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Joined January 2017
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Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time.
Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is:
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It's Pro Bowl week so here is your first annual reminder Mitch Trubisky couldn't complete a pass over a glass panel
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When Taylor Heinicke's career is over, he can just start a yearly column in which he predicts which QBs get benched in the coming season. Because he predicts it correctly every single offseason
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If you think about it Eli Manning was worse at every single on-field trait, but he was a better QB than Justin Herbert because he refused to play for the Chargers.
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Defensive rookie of the year
Quentin Johnston drops a perfect throw from Justin Herbert. Brutal
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the choice of QB or non-QB is perfect here
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Justin Fields has
- fewer rush TDs than Jamaal Williams
- lower yds per attempt than Zach Wilson
- fewer pass TDs than Jared Goff
- lower passer rating than Andy Dalton
(sorry I'm legally obliged to play this game whenever I see it)
Justin Fields has:
▪︎ More rush TD than Christian McCaffrey
▪︎ More rush yds than Dalvin Cook
▪︎ As many pass TD as Tom Brady
▪︎ Higher pass rating than Dak Prescott
Redefining DUAL-THREAT
#DaBears
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The Bears signed seven UDFA WRs. No excuses for Justin Fields this season
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Hot take: The Raiders paid like 60% of what the Rams paid to the same player
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If the Bears choose between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye..
Williams: Concerns are in-pocket/in structure. Exactly what Fields struggles with in the NFL. Bears might get PTSD.
Maye: No concerns, but North Carolina. Exactly where Mitch Trubisky played. Bears might get PTSD.
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The Chargers just lost 20-23 while their QB had probably the best game a QB had this season and this is not an overstatement
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The Jags drafted Trevor Lawrence without needing to trade up, then got another first overall pick the year after, still have Trevor on a rookie contract and feel completely average and irrelevant going into next season.
We need a study on how they botched this.
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2018: Gurley is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
August: Zeke is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
September/October: McCaffrey is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
December/Janaury: Derrick Henry is the...
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Burrow also played a really really good game overall, I think, but man, when Mahomes is making plays on one ankle to Marcus Kemp while Burrow is throwing to Chase & Higgins, it just hits different.
QB1, always has been.
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The AAF made it only to 8 games and still every single team won more games than Hue Jackson in 2016 & 2017.
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I don't want to be too dramatic and heroize Mahomes too much, but beyond this it can be noted that he received snaps to his feet all night and in a do-or-die drive his other receiver ran 10 yards backwards to set up 2nd&13 instead of 2nd&short. Unreal.
Mahomes led the Chiefs in rushing yards and his two leading WRs were Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson
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Borrowing cap space from the future and retiring when it's time to pay the debts is such a boss move
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If Trevor Lawrence earns a franchise QB contract at any point in his career, he should give 10% of it to Josh Lambo
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Ceiling: Justin Herbert
Middle ground: what the public thinks Justin Herbert is
Floor: what Tuanon thinks Justin Herbert is
Fill this out for me- Drake Maye
Ceiling:
Middle Ground:
Floor:
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After being drafted to the New England Patriots dynasty and then being traded to Kyle Shanahan, I'd sure wish for him that he finally gets into a winning situation
Jimmy Garoppolo says he expects to be traded from the San Francisco 49ers and he wants to be sent to a winning situation:
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Quarterbacks went off the board at No. 8, No. 10 and No. 12.
The NFL is overdoing it with QBs in the first round, why don't they use this exact range of picks to select one of these safe blue chip prospects who will transform your franchise to the better
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I'm not sure what to make of the fact the 49ers chose the much worse quarterback in 2005 and yet they've made it to the Super Bowl more often than the Packers since then.
Having an elite QB *can* be bad when it masks organisational deficiencies, because you never bottom out.
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Patrick Mahomes will throw to a 34 year old tight end and a few unproven or proven mediocre receivers next season and is favored to win the Super Bowl after losing his long time offensive coordinator.
Let that sink in.
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I really wonder what Patrick Mahomes is doing on the field if it's not quarterbacking
.
@danorlovsky7
says Joe Burrow is the “best quarterback in football” 👀
“Patrick Mahomes, best player. He’s the most talented player in the NFL and he’s the most dynamic weapon. Joe Burrow’s the best quarterback in football when it comes to quarterbacking.”
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Trevor Lawrence career arc
National champion
Runner up
Semi-finalist
AFC South 4th place
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If you think about it the Panthers could have had Lamar for two first-round picks and opted to take Bryce Young for two first round picks, two second-round picks and DJ Moore
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Brady's last two drives were touchdowns to tie a game, including a 55 yard bomb to Mike Evans over the best corner in the league. Dude is 44 and leaves the game on top. Unreal career.
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Saying Jordan Davis can only play 50% of the snaps means you haven't seen Vita Vea rushing the passer. And Davis is more athletic
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Biggest QB contracts/extensions this offseason:
Aaron Rodgers 3-6
Russell Wilson 3-5
Kyler Murray 3-6
Deshaun Watson - suspended
Derek Carr - 2-6
Matt Stafford - 3-5
...
wait for it
...
Kirk Cousins 7-1😤
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Since 2010, Tom Brady got a roughing the passer call on 2.1% of his sacks or hits, that ranks 61st among 91 QBs with 100+ sacks/hits since then.
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The AFC has three types of QBs.
Those who have all-world weapons: Tua, Stroud, Burrow
Those who don't have all-world weapons: Herbert, Lamar, Allen, Trevor
Those who win the Super Bowl: Mahomes
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Mitch Trubisky got drafted in 2017, sat behind Glennon for a few games, was benched in 2020, didn't play at all in 2021 and has 200 more career dropbacks than Jimmy Garoppolo who was drafted in 2014 and had two deep playoff runs.
It's insane how little Jimmy G has played still.
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Imagine the feeling when you are an active NFL quarterback with longer MVP odds than a retired quarterback
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The Bengals went 9-8 against the hardest schedule with like six of their games with a healthy starting quarterback
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How Tom Brady adapted to Arians' downfield offense without losing his ability to get rid of the ball quickly is one the most impressive things we've seen from a QB, let alone a 43-year old QB, I think.
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An NFL front office really thought Jamal Adams would be worth two first round picks, this is insane.
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People will get super mad at that tweet, but my honest takeaway from week 1 is that Patrick Mahomes is probably further away from the rest of the league in terms of quarterbacking than we already thought to begin with.
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*If* Tua fails in the NFL while Josh Allen succeeds, it might be time to address the magnitude with which receivers in college matter for a QB.
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Imagine someone telling you 10 years ago that the All-Pro votes for QB after the 2021 season are entirely split between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
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I still can't believe the Saints tried the "pair an aging HoF QB with one of the best rosters in the league" approach four times straight and failed each time just to see the division rival Bucs do exactly the same and succeed in the first year
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Pressures in the Super Bowl:
Aaron Donald - 8
The whole Bengals defense - 6
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Gotta hand it to Tuanon, that's a clever usage of the Manhattan metric.
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Most valuable non-QBs during first 4 years in the NFL per PFF WAR, since 2006:
1) Michael Thomas
2) Darrelle Revis
3) Richard Sherman
4) Mike Evans
5) Tyreek Hill
Chris Godwin and Jamal Adams both can surpass Hill in 2019 (both need roughly 80-90% of their best year in 2020)
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The Bengals just got
- a touchdown on 4th down
- a 2pt conversion
- a successful onside kick
- a 29 yard touchdown with the game clock hitting zeros
- a 2pt conversion
Imagine this happening in a meaningful game. Everything would explode.
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The Saints only recovered the onside kick in Super Bowl 44 because Peyton Manning counted 17% against the cap in that year.
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Sauce Gardner covered Gabriel Davis and Stefon Diggs for a combined 25 snaps and gave up one target for six yards, no first down.
If he doesn't win DROY because of "only" two interceptions, we riot. When Stefon Diggs earns zero targets against you, you can't catch INTs.
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it's definitely way too early to say this gives me Jalen Reagor - Justin Jefferson vibes, so I won't tweet it
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Patrick Mahomes just completed a first ballot hall of fame career within 5 years of starting and people choose to be mad about refs. Amazing
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PFF passing grade on incompletions or interceptions over the last three weeks:
Justin Herbert 71.7
Dak Prescott 58.9
Josh Allen 46.9
Kenny Pickett 46.2
Everyone else below 45.
Herbert hat 10 dropped passes beyond the sticks over this timeframe. Dak ranks second with 5.
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No matter how obvious, once an ironic tweet reaches a certain number of people, there will always be people missing the irony
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The problematic racial sterotypes for QBs aside, why does the media spend time on "Dak vs Purdy"?
Dak v Purdy ain't a competition. Dak is unquestionably better at every aspect of QB play.
Why not talk about how Shanahan and the skill players make this offense unique and good?
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No, I will not tweet out that Jameis Winston has a higher career EPA/play than Matthew Stafford.
Oops...
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Do the ESPN analytics ever say anything other than GO?
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The Steelers have lost the fewest expected points on give aways and have gained the most expected points on take aways so far this season.
Amazing.
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The Cowboys had a point differential of +125 in the regular season.
During the season, the 49ers faced the
- Chiefs (+127)
- Seahawks (+6)
- every other opponent finished the season with negative point differential
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I feel so sorry for Daniel Jones, this mess is not his fault at all
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DaRon Bland has the same number of touchdowns on receptions this season as Kyle Pitts - the 4th overall pick in 2021 - has in his career.
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I feel like the fact that this was thrown teaches us a lesson about whether every in-breaking target should be called anticipation (which happened way too often this season)
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Teams who started a backup QB in 3+ games in 2023:
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Colts
Raiders
Vikings
Jets
Bears
Falcons
Titans
Giants
Cardinals
Patriots
Chargers
The only team to not win a single game? The Chargers. They went 0-4, losing against three other backup QBs.
Stop trying to make everybody else around Justin Herbert seem worse, so that Herbert looks better.
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I wonder if Lamar were considered a better thrower coming out if playing with a top 10 pick and another first-round pick at WR in year 5 of college.
oh wait...in year 5 of college Lamar was the unanimous NFL MVP
Finding consensus on a Jayden Daniels comparison is difficult. But NFL evaluators don't agree with the Lamar Jackson comps.
"Better thrower than Lamar was coming out and it's not close," per an AFC exec.
Shades of RG3 as far as running style.
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If the Falcons draft Mac Jones, it will have taken Tom Brady only one year to create his usual AFC East QB environment among his division foes
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Most PFF WAR accumulated by non-QBs in a season, 2006-2021
2021 Rams 7.5
2012 49ers 6.8
2017 Eagles 6.4
2008 Ravens 6.3
To be successful with the "trade for a vet QB who isn't elite" route, you "only" need to have the best supporting cast of the last 15 years by a good margin.
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If they don't want to spend a ton of draft capital to trade for a starting QB, the Bucs are back to 2015: Their two best options on the free agent market are Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota
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Reading the post first against MOFO seems like the right thing and when Allen sees
#27
's hips, he knows the post is gonna be wide open. Good read, imho.
Chris Jones bullrushing the LT directly into Allen probably saved the season for the Chiefs right there. Game of inches.
This was the throw after the two-minute warning for Allen on second-and-9. He never even looked in Diggs's direction on the drag route.
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Jared Goff has a 123.4 passer rating which tells you all you need to know about passer rating
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It's easy to talk down the opponents after the fact, but the Chiefs beat the three best regular season teams in the AFC to make the Super Bowl, two of them on the road.
That is simply very impressive and extremely rare.
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Darnell Wright was the only rookie offensive linemen in 2023 who
- played at least 100 snaps
- had a 60+ run blocking and a 60+ pass blocking grade.
Good rookie years from offensive lineman are typically rare, but 2023 was extreme
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rule of thumb: When you're almost at the point where Fahrenheit and Celsius meet, it's not "football weather" anymore, it's probably just dangerous to everyone involved, including the fans.
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Before this tweet gets too much traction and people call me a Fields hater: This tweet is actually not really about Justin Fields. It's about the weird "look through the different stats and for each find the best name that is below player X" game.
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Kirk vs Carr vs Baker for the division title is the division we didn't know we needed
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The MVP of the regular season should have either been
Tom Brady - He has the best combination of volume, team success and quarterback play
or
Justin Herbert - but nobody is ready for this conversation.
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Who do you want to start week 1 for the Saints?
RT for Jameis
Like for Jameis
Reply for Taysom
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I've just now realized that the 2018 & 2019 Bears didn't only resemble the 2017 & 2018 Jaguars, they are keeping the similarity in 2020 by acquiring Nick Foles to get them out of regression valley.
Does this ultimately mean Nick Foles plays for the Bills in 2021?
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It's funny how this tweet is actually:
Bills paid Diggs less than $20M per year, got a lot of good, even elite, play out of him and were able to elevate their fringe playoff team status to being an perennial Super Bowl contender.
They invested the 22nd overall pick and will get…
the Stefon Diggs saga in Buffalo
in 2020 the Bills traded for Diggs
they gave up a 1st, 4th, 5th & 6th
they paid him as the
#6
most expensive WR in the NFL at the time
in 2022 they signed him to an even larger $96,000,000 deal
all told, from 2020-2023 the Bills paid him…
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How can one watch this game and think Purdy is the MVP, lmao. The 49ers are the better *team*
Better move Brock Purdy right near/at the top of the MVP favorites list….if you have not already, or if he wasn’t before this game. Don’t argue with me…argue with the stats.
And the tape.
It’s justified.
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This season is almost unpredictable, but we all already knew in August that the Packers at Vikings game would be the matchup between an anti vaxxer who already missed a game due to Covid and the passer with the highest PFF passing grade in the league
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Patrick Mahomes had 0 turnover-worthy plays in the playoffs, but he also avoids minor mistakes.
He already led the regular season with the lowest rate of negatively graded dropbacks (10.3%).
During the playoffs he brought this down to 6.3% so far.
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A lot happened in this game, but this is asking for a L, no matter how well your defense played up to that point
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