Cold Air
@ScottLuft
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I write to right: exploring and communicating on topics of interest including energy, data, politics, and education
Ontario
Joined September 2011
Most pundits in Canada believe the Ontario ad featuring Ronald Reagan footage talking against tariffs caused too much negative blowback from Trump that hurt Canada. What a load of frightened nonsense. It was exactly what needed to be said. https://t.co/iey0SfrNkh
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with estimates of curtailment, distributed generation and costing... lowest market rates since early November mean lowest Class A rates since that time: class B pricing hanging in between $120-$125/MWh by my pre-non-hydro-renewable subsidy estimate. equates to <$100/MWh after
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following ON exports to QC, and others... QC was the largest export destination, but NY was a close second. Unlike previous (colder) weeks imports from MI were rare I have avg. rate for exports to QC above $135/MWh
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Ontario electricity reporting of IESO-controlled grid (Tx) data now through week 51 (ended Dec. 21, 2025) demand, and market pricing, still higher than since 2008, but moderating along with temps. high wind and increased gas compensated for lower hydro and nuclear
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No business in Canada should have a business model that is predicated on unlimited low skilled, temporary, indentured foreign labour. Abolish the TFW program now.
A&W owners in Quebec warn they could close restaurants or cut hours unless the federal government restores access to temporary foreign workers, arguing it’s becoming harder to find local staff willing to work fast-food jobs
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this was the situation in November. December has seen New York's appetite for Ontario supply grow near to Quebec's level (which is unchanged). MI is a net exporter to ON - but relatively small volumes I hope QC's reservoirs are recovering - but I'm not optimistic.
@brianlilley This is unbelievable, by @ParkerGallant7 @ScottLuft The IESO, Hydro-Quebec Annual Capacity Swap Agreement Looks Like a Loser for Ontario Ontario rate payers are propping up Hydro Quebec's contracted sales to the US! https://t.co/TFgxrqRIJw
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Ontario Power Generation now has nuclear deployment partnerships with Tennessee Valley Authority, and New York Power Authority. The public power nuclear triad
Great news that two of the oldest publicly-owned generation enterprises in the world 🇨🇦@OPG (direct lineage to HEPCO of 1906) and 🇺🇸@NYPAenergy (established by FDR based on the "Ontario model" in 1931) have signed an MOU to cooperate on⚛️nuclear energy.
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"For the first time, New York explicitly evaluated nuclear power in its power system modeling and found that adding new nuclear energy would make it easier and less expensive for the state to meet its 2040 clean energy target." AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING
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the bad news is Enbridge's latest reporting of natural gas storage levels shows another big drawdown on a level already well below what is typical for the time of year. Expect pricing to rise significantly if temperatures drop significantly. 2/2
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good news and bad news for Ontario electricity wholesale rates. Some good news is a warmer day with good wind had the rates in the day-ahead market well below they $100+/MWh pricing we've been seeing for weeks. Natural gas pricing at Enbridge's Dawn hub has declined. 1/2
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PJM capacity auction for 2027-28 hits the CAP; falls SHORT of reliability need - Capacity price hits $333/MW-day - Auction ~6.6 GW UCAP short of RTO reliability requirement of 152 GW UCAP - Load flex: demand response (ICAP) DOWN vs last year PJM to file solutions at FERC soon?
PJM's next capacity auction (27/28) result is already coming up next week (!) and auction parameters show continued load growth + supply crunch expected - Peak load up 3.3% - Reliability requirement up 6.3 GW (4.3%) - will we be short? - Load flexibility: sell side analysis says
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If I’m reading this right, Canada just experienced it’s largest population drop since WWII, and only the third quarter with a negative value since WWII. That just after our biggest multi quarter sustained rise since WWII.
This morning Statistics Canada reported an unprecedented -0.2% decrease in Canada's population in the third quarter of 2025. The drop was 76,068 people, leaving the population standing at 41,575,585 on October 1, 2025. #cdnecon
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As I reported on Monday, Ford’s failed EV strategy ended up costing the company $35.1 billion. And yet, @Ford CEO Jim Farley took home $24.9 million in compensation last year. If there’s a more outrageous example of out-of-control corporate pay, I can’t think of one.
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Had many a great chat with the owner of this bakery in my local neighbourhood. It’s just appalling that an honest human being is no longer safe to run a bakery. In 🇦🇺. Who would have thought?
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for those dreaming of a nuclear Winter :) With Point Lepreau starting up in New Brunswick and Bruce 2 now returning to production in Ontario, every reactor in Canada that could be generating power now is. A little late for the cold - but that's cuz' the cold was early!
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Statue diagnosed with TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME
WATCH: Replica of the Statue of Liberty topples due to strong winds in Guaíba, Brazil
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Editor at large of Christianity Today, ex-policy director of Southern Baptist Convention on Trump's tweet on the death of Rob Reiner >
How this vile, disgusting, and immoral behavior has become normalized in the United States is something our descendants will study in school, to the shame of our generation.
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There is no bottom. And even when you know there is no bottom, the lack of bottom can still astound...
Regardless of how you felt about Rob Reiner, this is inappropriate and disrespectful discourse about a man who was just brutally murdered. I guess my elected GOP colleagues, the VP, and White House staff will just ignore it because they’re afraid? I challenge anyone to defend it.
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