Sam Winter-Levy
@SamWinterLevy
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Fellow @CarnegieEndow, Technology + International Affairs. Previously poli sci PhD @ Princeton, @ForeignAffairs, @TheEconomist.
New Jersey, USA
Joined September 2011
In @ForeignAffairs, Nikita Lalwani and I write about the idea that winning the AI race will give one state unchallenged global dominance. To do so, we argue, it would have to undercut nuclear deterrence—no small feat.
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1/ Trump is meeting Xi this week for China trade talks. Congress is worried Trump may offer downgraded Blackwell AI chips as a concession. If this happens, it could effectively mean the end of US chip restrictions. Thread with highlights from our new 7,000-word report.
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Trump is in a surprisingly strong position to win the rare earths fight with China, but not if he keeps relying on tariffs. For @ForeignPolicy I explain how Xi’s escalation has given Trump a chance to fix his broken China strategy. (1/6) https://t.co/MfKzksdNAP
foreignpolicy.com
China’s complex new rules take on the entire world at once—and give Trump an opportunity.
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Time to apply is now, join the community!
The Irregular Warfare Initiative Nonresident Fellows Program — Apply by November 6! Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI) Nonresident Fellows play a pivotal role in advancing our mission to bridge the gap between scholars and practitioners in support of the global irregular warfare
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Unpacking the U.S.-Australia critical minerals deal announced yesterday (Oct. 20): 1. Australia and the US are logical partners on critical minerals. Both countries have important mining companies, significant expertise, and significant minerals resources. Australia has been
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1/ How can the US and partners build a resilient supply chain for rare earths in the wake of China's unprecedent rare earth export controls? @ArnabDatta321, @timhwang, @fiiiiiist, and I present a playbook for an Operation Warp Speed for rare earths, in a joint piece between @IFP
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Last month, China released its most sophisticated document yet on how it views AI risks and what mitigations it can implement to address them. Very interesting bits on open-source risks, labor market impacts, and CBRN. In our latest for @CarnegieEndow, @mattsheehan88 and I break
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🚨 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics goes to Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt 🚨 "for having explained innovation-driven economic growht" The best prize in years!
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Today, CA Gov. Gavin Newsom signed SB-53 into law—the first in the U.S. explicitly focused on frontier AI policy. The bill draws directly on the policy principles we outline in the CA Report on Frontier AI Policy, for which I served as lead writer alongside @RishiBommasani.
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FAI is hiring! Come join the AI policy team to work with @hamandcheese, @deanwball, and me at @JoinFAI.
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This sounds like the world's weakest negotiation: telling the UAE they'll get unlimited chips before they've agreed to a single concession in return.
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#China’s #AI advances test #US dominance in a race shaping #trade, #security, and #globalpower. @janet_e_egan (@CNASdc), @OJDaniels (@CSETGeorgetown), and @SamWinterLevy (@CarnegieEndow) will unpack the stakes. RSVP: https://t.co/5bYEKehR8P
#Network2020 #VirtualBriefingSeries
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Trump says he wants tariffs on semiconductors, so I wrote about how to do it right for ChinaTalk. Smart tariffs could remove a massive risk for the US economy. The answer is to focus on foundational (28nm+), not leading-edge, and on China, not allies.
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Respondents—especially superforecasters—underestimated AI progress. Participants predicted the state-of-the-art accuracy of ML models on the MATH, MMLU, and QuaLITY benchmarks by June 2025. Domain experts assigned probabilities of 21.4%, 25%, and 43.5% to the achieved outcomes.
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How can the U.S. make its AI offerings more compelling than China’s in the Global South? 🌐 Join Andres Castrillon (@Qualcomm), @SamWinterLevy (@CarnegieEndow), & @hodanomaar to discuss practical strategies for durable AI alliances. Register now👇 https://t.co/AtHUTlq2uo
datainnovation.org
The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan outlines an ambitious global strategy: export the full U.S. AI technology stack—hardware, models, software, [...]
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According to the AI+ plan announced by China's State Council last week, the PRC wants to integrate AI into 90 percent of most of its economy by 2030. It won’t work. In my latest for @CarnegieEndow, I explain why. 🧵
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Excellent piece from @mikereedschmidt and Todd Fisher, who previously ran the CHIPS program. I've seen a lot of debate on whether the govt CAN take an equity investment. This pretty persuasively answers the question of whether it SHOULD (no).
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“It remains possible that countries will develop significantly more powerful AI systems that could threaten methods of nuclear deterrence in ways that cannot yet be anticipated,” write @SamWinterLevy and Nikita Lalwani. https://t.co/U9ZoJVpRNS
foreignaffairs.com
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
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As we argued last year (with @MLiebreich and @laurimyllyvirta), "attacks on oil refineries will not have the effect on global energy markets that US officials fear.... Yet they can still inflict pain inside Russia, driving up the price of refined oil products, such as gasoline
foreignaffairs.com
Washington’s fears about energy markets are misplaced.
Petrol prices in Russia have hit record highs and the fuel is in short supply in several regions as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. The crisis prompted Moscow to suspend exports of petrol, @NastyaStognei and @fabrice_deprez report. https://t.co/xiuBmL436X
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As we argued last year (with @MLiebreich and @laurimyllyvirta), "attacks on oil refineries will not have the effect on global energy markets that US officials fear.... Yet they can still inflict pain inside Russia, driving up the price of refined oil products, such as gasoline
foreignaffairs.com
Washington’s fears about energy markets are misplaced.
Petrol prices in Russia have hit record highs and the fuel is in short supply in several regions as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. The crisis prompted Moscow to suspend exports of petrol, @NastyaStognei and @fabrice_deprez report. https://t.co/xiuBmL436X
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Nice review of Srinath Raghavan’s latest on Indira Gandhi by @SVRuparelia
Indira Gandhi and the Years that Transformed India — democracy vs authoritarianism
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