Roxy Koll ⛈
@RockSea
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Climate Scientist and #IPCC Lead Author. I put the ocean in a /shell/ and throw that shell back into the ocean. Occasionally that rains back as monsoon stories
Joined June 2008
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What does the future Indian Ocean look like?
1/ The warming in the Indian Ocean was strongest during the last seven decades, at a rate of 1.2°C per century.
This is dwarfed by the projected warming of 3.8°C per century in the future, if emissions continue at the current rate.
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Cyclone, heatwaves and the monsoon in one frame.
#CycloneRemal
in the Bay of Bengal, heatwaves over India and Pakistan, and the southwest monsoon picking up its pace.
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1/ India on Fire.
The Fire Map shows locations where fires were detected by satellite during the last 24 hours. Regardless of whether these fires are triggered by humans or not, extremely high temperatures and dry conditions due to climate change are exacerbating them.
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1/ The climate has changed, forever. Humans have caused it and our commitments are insufficient to bring the curve down. This is a curve that we are not flattening. Climate change will continue and intensify for centuries, if not a few thousand years into the future.
#IPCCreport
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I am excited and deeply honored to stand among giants in Earth and Space Sciences and to realize that our contributions have helped in advancing climate research and action.
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India needs the political and collective will for immediate and transformational climate action.
Op-Ed in Times of India.
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Death by DEGREES
An analysis of heatwaves over India
Frontline, 2 June 2023. Issue on stands now.
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1/ Here's an animated journey of the
#Monsoon
under
#ClimateChange
.
The New York Times story on the changing monsoon:
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Kamala Sohonie—a biochemist—and the first Indian woman to get a PhD in a scientific discipline.
1/ She was a biochemist and was at first refused a research fellowship at IISc by Nobel Laureate C V Raman, citing that she was a woman.
Learn more:
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Kerala State Action Plan on Climate Change is out.
The report includes an assessment of the historical changes, climate change projections for the future, and an action plan for 2023–2030.
Link:
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Strong winds from evolving Cyclone
#Tauktae
bring in storm surges south of Kerala. As the Arabian Sea becomes fertile, cyclones, heavy rains, and a rising sea level overlap and create "compound events", resulting in prolonged floods along the coast of India.
Video: WeatherGroup
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Death by DEGREES 🧵
1/ An analysis of heatwaves over India
Frontline, June 2023
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The Cloud Cluster That Unleashed the Delhi Rains
228 mm. That's three times the month's rainfall in just a few hours.
Warmer air holds more moisture for longer time. So, it may not rain for several days but when it rains, it dumps a month's or a season's rain in a few hours.
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Salaries of PhD Scholars and Research Associates should be competitive and on par with industry/international standards.
Otherwise the dearth of experts working to solve the nation's problems will continue.
Salaries for research scholars are low even after the 20% hike.
Govt. has approved enhancing emoluments for JRF/SRF/RAs engaged in R&D activities whereby they will receive following fellowships/month w.e.f 01/01/2023:
JRF - Rs 37,000
SRF - Rs 42,000
RA1 - Rs 58,000
RA2 - Rs 61,000
RA3 - Rs 63,000
@DrJitendraSingh
@srivaric
@guptaakhilesh63
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Urbanization alone is responsible for 60% of the warming trend in Indian cities.
— It's not just climate change.
Study by Vinoj @ IIT-Bhuvaneshwar:
Nature India highlight:
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When your artist wife accompanies you to a scientific lecture...
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India in stripes. These color stripes show that in India we are living in the warmest decades in the recorded history. The hottest years on record have occurred in the running decade.
#ShowYourStripes
#ClimateChange
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Stanford University has published a list of Top 2% Scientists. Here are the Top 2% from India listed under Climate Sciences, for 2019. While the list may not be comprehensive, happy to see our names along with the names of several outstanding colleagues.
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Carbon dioxide removal is not a current climate solution.
"Drastically reduce emissions first, or carbon dioxide removal will be next to useless."
What David Ho writes at Nature resonates with the recent IPCC Report
@_david_ho_
@Nature
@IPCC_CH
Link:
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On a documentary shoot with Madhav Gadgil on the Western Ghats and Climate Change.
Stay tuned for more for a follow up on the "Wounded Hills" short-film from Director Shaju John.
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Cloudburst.
Time-lapse video of a cloudburst in Austria, by Peter Maier.
While you are at it, here is a podcast on cloudbursts that I did with Suno India
@SunoIndia_in
:
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Monsoon outlook for South Asia is out.
Above-average rainfall (blue shades in the map) is forecasted during 2024 monsoon (Jun–Sep) over most of South Asia except some areas over northern, eastern and north-eastern parts.
Read the SASCOF outlook via IMD:
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Night-time light over India...
...has increased by 43% in a decade
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Publicly funded data should be publicly available, free, and easy to access. IMD, ISRO, CWC, it's a long list for India.
Government institutions like IMD charge lakhs/Crores of rupees for accessing historical weather data created with taxpayer money. But they provide the same to select institutions (ex: IISc) free of charge. Researchers outside would never get to study or publish in such domains
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Biparjoy is the longest duration cyclone in the Arabian Sea at 9 days, compared to an average of 4-5 days.
Warming of oceans will keep disrupting the monsoon and trigger devastating cyclones.
Read more:
Rainfall Roulette: El Niño and Arabian Sea cyclone fuel a bearish monsoon
My article in MoneyControl on the tussle between Cyclone Biparjoy and the Monsoon – and what the El Niño is doing in the background.
@moneycontrolcom
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Oceanographers and ocean lovers, here's a beautiful depiction of the oceanic zones with the marine biodiversity in each zone. Illustrated by Green Humour
@thetoonguy
.
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Nature highlights our research on extreme rains over India and attempts at climate solutions.
Link:
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Monsoon patterns have changed over South Asia—instead of moderate rains spread through the season, we see long dry periods intermittent with short spells of heavy rains. As a 2°C global change is closing in, we need to urgently disaster-proof every village and city in South Asia.
EXCELLENT report by ROXY KOLL of IITM (Pune) on the South West Monsoon in India so far, foot print of Climate Change and its connections with wider climate and implications. One of the best I have come across. Very clear headed.
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1/ Arabian Sea used to be cool, but now it's a warm pool—supporting more intense cyclones. Tropical cyclones draw their energy from the warm waters—a reason why they form over the warm pool regions where temperatures are above 28°C.
More on WIO warming:
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Heatwaves over India in red.
Rest of the colors indicate temperature anomalies in response to —
the monsoon onset (delayed) over the southern tip,
the cyclone landfall over northwest,
and heavy rains-floods over northeast.
Source: IMD
@Indiametdept
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1/ It's likely that
#TauktaeCyclone
is the first Extremely Severe Cyclone (220 km/hr) to reach close to Mumbai in the last 130 years*. It impacted all 5 states on the west coast. Doesn't stop there—look at the thick clouds curving all around north India and neighboring countries.
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1/ With climate change, the storyline has changed for Mumbai and the coastline of India. This thread discusses how storms surge from intense cyclones, heavy rains, and sea-level rise are all overlapping—to create prolonged large-scale floods.
#MumbaiMustPrepare
@MumbaisMagic
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Reg. Rashtriya Vigyan Puraskar.
Thank you all, I'm overwhelmed by your heartwarming wishes. Due to a family health issue (currently stable), I'm unable to respond individually at the moment. I'll get back to you soon with updates ❤️
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I had an excellent interactive session on Climate Change with the members of the Kerala Legislative Assembly (MLAs).
Climate change is now definitely a poll agenda for Kerala.
Video of the session:
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Yay! IMD releases 120 year-long meteorological data to the public. Data for temperature, rainfall, cyclones—and climatological information of various environmental conditions are available now. Getting around the IMD website is frustrating as usual.
Link:
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○ Barbie movie Budget: $150 million
○ US pledge to the Loss and Damage Climate Fund: $17.5 million
#COP28
7/ Now look at the numbers from the US (annual), the richest country, which is historically the worst greenhouse gas emitter and the largest producer and consumer of oil and gas.
US military spending: Above $800 billion
US pledge to the L&D climate fund: Below $18 million
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During my student/early career life in Japan and Italy, I had local guardian families whose support enriched my life. If there're students from Afganisthan (or elsewhere) in Pune, who're away from home and feel lost, we would be happy to talk to you! Please DM and connect :-)
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This map tells you where in India the number of deaths due to extreme weather events is the largest—and what kind of event it is. Floods, cyclones, heat and cold waves, and lightning took about 1.4 lakh lives during the past five decades. Study
@moesgoi
@raykamaljit
@rajeevan61
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Those layered hills in Maharashtra formed through millions of years of volcanic lava-ash deposits. Happened while the Indian subcontinent separated from Africa south of the equator 70 million years ago, and traveled at 10 cm/year to collide with Eurasia 10 million years ago.
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1/ March 2022 was India's hottest March in recorded history (1901-2022).
Source
@Indiametdept
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Bay of Bengal recorded surface temperatures of 32-34°C, prior to
#CycloneAmphan
. We have never seen such high values until now. Tropical cyclones draw their energy from the ocean surface and these temperatures can supercharge a cyclone, leading to its rapid intensification.
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Twin Cyclones, Asani and Karim, in the Indian Ocean.
When ocean and atmospheric conditions are favorable, planetary waves traveling near the equator can aid the formation of such twin cyclones.
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6/ Lives are saved due to forecasts, but we need policies with a long-term vision. Heatwaves are to intensify. A 30–40% decline in work performance in India is projected by end of century due to elevated heat stress levels. What about loss of biodiversity due to drying and fires?
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3/ On 29 April 2022, the highest maximum temperature of 47.4°C was reported at Banda (East Uttar Pradesh). Heatwaves continue to be 4-5degC above in some regions of north/northwest India.
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Thanks to the Indian Meteorological Society, IITM
@iitmpune
, IMD
@Indiametdept
and the met community for the felicitation and wonderful collaboration through the years.
Thank you
@shekhar_mande
@Hosalikar_KS
and all.
Congratulations
@PARTHAS_M
@rajesh26
for the awards.
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Pollution over India before and after COVID-19
#lockdown
. These are satellite monitored pollutant values (PM2.5) on 30 March in 2019 and 2020.
Source: NASA/EU Copernicus via earth.nullschool.
#COVID19
#Covid19India
#AirQuality
#PM25
#pollution
.
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As climate change accelerates water crisis, river interlinking projects are popping up across the globe to transfer water to deficit regions as a potential solution. In this new study, we show the potential impacts of river interlinking on meteorology. 1/
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Contributions to temperature change from GHG emissions
USA 17.3% contributing to 0.28°C
China 12.3% contributing to 0.20°C
EU 10.4% contributing to 0.17°C
Russia 6.1% contributing to 0.10°C
Brazil 4.9% contributing to 0.08°C
India 4.8% contributing to 0.08°C
Indonesia 3.4%
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@vineet_tropmet
Vineet, today the PMC Commissioner Vikram Kumar lauded your outstanding work and mentioned that they at PMC closely follow your tweets on Pune weather.
It was a proud moment for me to inform him that you were my PhD student.
Keep going 👏
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One Nation One Subscription — countrywide open access to national and international research publications is hopefully going live from April 2023.
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Bangalore: From Garden City to Concrete Jungle in a few years.
Incredible
@Reuters
graphic - in the early 70s, more than 68% of Bengaluru was covered in vegetation. By late 90s, the city's green cover had dropped to around 45% and by 2021 to less than 3% of its total area | via
@DevjyotGhoshal
@tweetsfromnivi
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5/ The good news? Effective forecasts and early warning systems integrated with heat action plans can reduce mortalities. We did make good progress in saving lives.
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IPCC Scientist as Minister of Environment in Chile. Shall we try this in India? Should we have scientists in our policy and decision making teams?
Congratulations to Maisa Rojas, one of the authors of the latest
#IPCC
#ClimateReport
, for becoming Chile’s next Minister of the Environment.
Read more from
@DFinanciero
➡️
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The rainfall deficit pattern in monsoon 2022 so far is similar to the long-term declining trend in rainfall. The prominent horseshoe pattern has shown up, along with a deficit in Kerala.
More on the monsoon trends:
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Which one will you visit for your data and science—you judge!
Websites of
1. Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), India.
2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA.
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Communicating science to the public has far-reaching impacts. This time, our research on marine heatwaves got highlighted in the Parliament. Here's a snippet of the Q&A session.
Read about the study here:
Original paper:
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***new study***
Tracking the Changing El Niño (ENSO)-Monsoon Relationship across Regions and Timeframes.
Link:
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The leading newspapers of India have highlighted the climate change report on their front and edit pages today. Now, we need climate action at national-to-district levels. Here're some key takeaways of the report and why India should look forward to local solutions.
#IPCCReport
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Our review on Cyclones in the north Indian Ocean is among the most downloaded articles in Earth Science Reviews!
Link:
Summary and PDF:
Most Downloaded List:
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Cyclone Review 🧵
1/ Cyclones are now intensifying rapidly due to warming oceans. Amphan intensified from a Category-1 (100 km/hr) to a Category-5 (250 km/hr) cyclone in less than 24 hours. How do the ocean and atmosphere work together to make these powerful and deadly storms?
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The Bay of Bengal on a test-run before
#CycloneYaas
. Vizag at 4:00 and 4:30 today, as a thunderstorm brews by the coast. Photo: Balu Chandran.
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And that spring never came to India.
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Indian on Fire. The Fire Map shows locations where fires were detected during the last 24 hours. These fires are directly triggered by humans, via debris/garbage/crop/grass burning, campfires, and thrown-away cigarettes. Climate change and high temperatures aggravate them.
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These kids are the hope for tomorrow.
St.Joseph's School at Malayinchippara, Kerala, is part of the Meenachil River and Rain Monitoring network and monitors the daily rainfall using a rain gauge. This is a climate-equipped, environment-friendly school.
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1/
#CycloneNisarga
is about to scrape around Mumbai on 3rd June. If that happens, it will be the first-ever cyclone in recorded history to hit the Maharashtra coast in June. Will it bring in floods too?
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150 Years of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall.
As the summer monsoon season ends with 8.7% above normal rainfall, here is the updated monsoon time series for 1871-2020.
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IMD Seasonal Forecast is out, with some good news indicating that the monsoon rainfall during June-Sept is likely to be normal (98%). Interesting is the orange patch that points out a probable deficit over east India, matching with the long-term declining trend in rainfall here.
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One of the largest chlorophyll blooms occurs in the Indian Ocean during the monsoon. However, the satellite measurements of these booms have gaps due to the monsoon clouds. Using gap-filling techniques, we have prepared chlorophyll data for the tropical Indian Ocean.
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False alert — on heatwaves, floods, and droughts in the coming months. A case of mixing up climate projections and forecasts.
IPCC does not provide forecasts or state-level information for India.
@IPCC_CH
Heatwave guidance for India is provided by IMD
@Indiametdept
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Monsoon Chronicles
#1
. India receives about 850 mm of rain every year. That's about 2 million liters of water per person. However, every year goes through a crisis of depleting groundwater, drying rivers. Water security is more of a management issue than a climate change issue.
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Interactive session with Members of Legislative Assembly, Kerala Govt on Wednesday, 13 July 2022.
Climate change — what do we expect, what can I do?
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Halfway through the first month of the monsoon season, India is now looking at a 51% deficit in rainfall.
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Over two decades ago, I embarked on my tryst with the ocean and the monsoon.
R/V Sagar Kanya, Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment.
#WorldOceansDay
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#IPCC
WG2 Report and South Asia/Indian Ocean Region🧵
1/ The report cautions that humans and ecosystems are pushed beyond adaptation limits due to climate change—and we need immediate transformational action.
"Delay means Death", says
@UN
Secretary-General,
@antonioguterres
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4/ As per IMD forecasts, severe heatwave is to continue for 1 May over Indo-Pak region to north- central India. It will gradually decrease to isolated pockets during 2-3 May. Temperatures over these regions will still be above 40C, but a short respite is expected during 4-7 May.
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COP28: The Gulf between Climate Commitments and Reality
1/ COP28 pushes the world to an inevitable global warming of 1.5°C by 2030 and 2°C by 2050.
Read my Op-Ed in The Times of India:
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150 Years of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall.
Count the drought and wet years during the last 20 years. When was the last time that we got a wet year?
Data Source: IMD. Compiled by IITM.
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India’s climate landscape is evolving rapidly, outpacing our R&D efforts.
1/ How has it changed and what can we do?
Read my Op-Ed @ Hindustan Times on why “a local early warning mission is as important to the Earth’s future as any space mission”
PDF:
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While most of our current climate action plans are based on past changes, they should be rather based on future changes.
Interview with Richa Sharma @ The New Indian Express on climate change, extreme weather events, and the way forward.
@richa_TNIE
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Climate Change. A grandfather worried about his grandchildren.
Usually, I do not get time to respond to personal queries but the last line made me!
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Children are the most vulnerable due to climate change, particularly in countries like India.
We need to prepare them for facing the climate challenge.
Instead, NCERT takes a step backward and drops climate change and monsoon from the school syllabus.
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While climate change is global, the challenges are local. That needs local action, and I'm happy to see state leaderships gearing up on climate action.
We look forward to interacting with climate scientists, experts, enthusiasts globally while we make progress in the climate action plan.
The time to act is now, and we hope many other states join in.
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