Raging Capital Ventures
@RagingVentures
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Excited to share our interview with
@NathanBenaich
of
@AirStreet
, a VC-firm focused on AI-first tech & life sciences companies. Benaich reviews the AI landscape and assesses the strategies of the big players. Read & sign-up for our free newsletter here:
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Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB reports earnings tomorrow
Investors have rightfully been fixated on $SIVB's large exposure to the stressed venture world, with the stock down a lot.
However, dig just a little deeper, and you will find a much bigger set of problems at $SIVB... 1/10
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$SIVB's mgmt has tried to blame its challenges on its venture-related exposure. However, it is hard to hide from the fact that mgmt bought the TOP of the bond market.
Tomorrow's earnings and this year should be interesting.
Caveat Emptor! (Disclosure: I am short) 10/10
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$SIVB's big problems are with its HTM portfolio
The bank basically increased its security portfolio by 700% at a generational TOP in the bond market, buying $88 b of mostly 10+ year mortgages with an average yield of just 1.63% at Sept 30th. Oops! 4/10
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$SIVB's HTM securities had mark-to-market losses as of Q3 of $15.9 b...compared to just $11.5 b of tangible common equity!!
Luckily, regulators do not force $SIVB to mark HTM securities to market. But the bank would be functionally underwater if it were liquidated today. 5/10
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Spoke to a # of well-connected SV insiders: the black cars are lined up outside of $SIVB HQ tonight.
Due to huge deposit outflows & credit line draws, they think $SIVB will either announce a big recap w/a Berkshire-like white night or someone like JPM will own it by Monday.
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The risk for $SIVB is that deposit outflows accelerate at such a pace that it is forced to either raise equity capital and/or sell down its HTM securities portfolio, thus realizing substantial losses. You can bet that $SIVB is praying for a Fed pivot! 8/10
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The game is afoot.
If you’re a hedge fund analyst, you’re spending the weekend trying to figure out who else is at risk.
Prime targets: Banks with significant losses in their “held-to-maturity” portfolios & high levels of uninsured deposits.
And, of course, $COIN & crypto
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Investment banker told me Friday that the current cost of debt for mid-market private equity deals is around SOFR+750 bps, or just under 12%. This assumes roughly 50% equity down.
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$SIVB rode the VC boom like a champ
Deposits grew from $61 b at Q4 '19 to $189 b at Q4 '21. Interest rates were so low, these deposits were like free money (~25 bps avg. cost). 2/10
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@therealkn42
No hedges!! That became a lost art over the last decade of Federal Reserve rate repression…
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$SIVB used these inflows to:
- Increase loans 100% to $66 b
- Go hog wild with its "held-to-maturity" (HTM) securities portfolio, ramping its mostly Agency mortgage holdings from $13.5 b at Q4 '19 to $99 b at Q4 '21.
3/10
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On top of this, due to the Fed's interest rate hikes, $SIVB is seeing accelerating deposit outflows (-6.5% ytd), a mix shift away from non-interest accounts, and skyrocketing interest costs (money markets now yield 4%). Also, $SIVB's venture clients are burning cash! 6/10
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Basically, as its funding costs reset higher, $SIVB is facing a massive negative carry cost on its HTM, largely fixed-yield securities portfolio (which is not running off quickly, due to the nature of mortgage convexity). 7/10
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Holy cow, that was quick.
I’m in shock. A blitzkrieg bank run.
An IOU for depositors and zilch for shareholders.
$SIVB
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My understanding is that the gov’t is now offering inducements to try to get a $SIVB sale done.
I would prefer to see that vs. a blanket backstop (socialization) of deposits above $250k, which would undermine the free market and create moral hazards.
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$SIVB's clients also face a risk. With the bank's stretched balance sheet, will it tighten and/or pull back on credit lines? Worse, could customers become uncomfortable with $SIVB as a counter-party, due to unrealized balance sheet losses? 9/10
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Reuters confirms that $SIVB mgmt only began to pursue efforts to raise capital *after* learning about Moody’s plan to downgrade their credit.
Mgmt really was ignorant / incompetent / trying to whistle past the graveyard.
Moody's downgrade of $SIVB, perhaps this is what lit a spark under mgmt (they should have been selling into the January squeeze to $350!)
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$SIVB announces $1.75 b common stock and $500 mm preferred stock offerings, as it tries to shore up its balance sheet. It also sold most of its $21 b "available for sale" securities portfolio, resulting in -$1.8 b in after-tax losses for Q1 2023. These were likely necessary…
Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB reports earnings tomorrow
Investors have rightfully been fixated on $SIVB's large exposure to the stressed venture world, with the stock down a lot.
However, dig just a little deeper, and you will find a much bigger set of problems at $SIVB... 1/10
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Major, blue chip VC told me tonight that he has around 100 startups alone who aren’t sure how they will mechanically make payroll next week $SIVB
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A contact of mine who runs a venture portfolio for a roughly $1 b family office shared with me that they are facing a capital crunch due to:
1) too many illiquid investments;
2) too many commitments to funds who make illiquid investments;
3) a lack of a realizations from said…
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This weekend has an ‘autumn of 2008’ type feel to it. Not good.
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Just listening to anything Ken Griffin has said over the past few years has been very profitable. His analysis is lucid and straightforward, and he has better information than almost anyone. Snippets of today’s CNBC interview are floating around, or you can access the full…
"One of the big drivers of the rally has been the frenzy over generative AI," Citadel CEO Ken Griffin tells
@SquawkStreet
. "I'd like to believe that this rally has legs. I'm a bit anxious we're in the 7th or 8th inning of this rally."
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As a friend of mine just pointed out, $SIVB is a business-focused bank so the bulk of the deposits are not FDIC insured. This is not a retail bank. That could create some very interesting political dynamics if a govt bailout or backstop is necessary…
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I’m surprised folks still think Fed could hike rates this week
I think there’s a better chance Powell cuts, perhaps meaningfully
Would take some pressure off of the banks & allow them to de-risk
It is also a better option than socializing deposits w/an unlimited guarantee
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Ackman’s annual letter for Pershing Square Holdings is worth a read, including detailed write ups on $NFLX, $HHC, $DPZ, $FNMA, $L, Universal Music $UMG and more:
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My wife and I went back to the well this past year, here’s our new little guy at six months. A little change of pace from our 3 other kids, who are all teenagers. I am one lucky father — a true blessing from God. Happy Father’s Day!
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Govt actions may stem the outright panic, but the fact remains that many banks are sitting with loans & mortgages that are worth far from par. Regulators & rating agencies are now going to lean on them to de-risk &/or raise capital. This is going to pressure ROEs & stock prices.
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I’m sympathetic to the small-time startup CEO who didn’t have time to diligence $SIVB before opening an account. But isn’t assessing and monitoring counterparty risk a core part of the job for any CFO at a VC or PE shop?
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Having managed money for a long time through many cycles, a few thoughts on how to stay mentally fit when things are tough (as they are now):
— If you’re not sleeping well, or are overly fixated on a position, reduce your exposure(s) so you regain your composure and sanity. 1/6
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Made the kids listen to the $NVDA earnings call on the way to school this morning. Reminded them that, despite all of the negative media headlines about partisanship, inflation, culture et al, a new Industrial Revolution is underway — and it was born right here in the USA.
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Endless brand new $TSLA car inventory, parked at Princeton’s Quakerbridge Mall parking lot (dealership is the across Route 1).
Ordinarily, there are just a few rows of new cars parked here.
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The recent SEC Complaint filed against crypto exchange Bittrex is a must-read and should scare the pants off of any $COIN holder. The SEC's regulatory framework is becoming clearer and intensifying. It appears $COIN will have a lot of work to do to become compliant. 1/2
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@NicheDown
@pitdesi
The one-two punch of combining Apple’s premium brand with a $3,000+ price point creates a lot of mystique and desire.
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TAX LOSS "JANUARY EFFECT" (SMALL CAP) STOCK IDEAS
2022 has been a bear, with many stocks down -80%, -90%, -95% or more. At YE, holders are often eager to lock-in tax losses & clean-up their books. So we could see some nice bounces once the selling abates.
Here are a few ideas:
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The Fed should man up and let the uninsured $FRC depositors take a haircut. Few bank failures have been more well-telegraphed.
$FRC’s mortgage loan book is going to be a political powder keg; avoiding a total bailout might sell better.
And capitalism would be better served…
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$SIVB’s “Hold to Maturity” Accounting Trap, datapoint compliments of Grant’s
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$FRC had -$4.8 b of unrealized losses in its "Held to Maturity" securities portfolio at YE, and fairly modest "available for sale" losses, versus roughly $14 b of tangible common equity. This isn't great, but it pales in comparison to $SIVB's $15 b "hole" (on ~$11.5 b tang BV).
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Thanks for having me on
@PowerLunch
, particularly on the same day that Jim Grant was in the studio!
"I think management got greedy & complacent, on top of that, investors & sell-side analysts weren't asking the tough questions" says $SIVB short-seller Bill Martin of
@RagingVentures
who warned of the bank's problems just 2 months before its collapse.
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Treasury’s Bank Term Funding Program:
“Eligible collateral includes any collateral eligible for purchase by the Federal Reserve Banks in open market operations (see 12 CFR 201.108(b)), provided that such collateral was owned by the borrower as of March 12, 2023.”
I don’t see…
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Funny from a friend:
“Now I’ve seen it all. Who would have thought a short thesis would result in a quote in New York Magazine? I hope it results in an invite to the Met Gala LOL…Congrats on the call and the well deserved attention it is receiving.”
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From Jeffries via Doug Kass:
“The spread of hedge fund longs vs. shorts is -11.5% over two days. That's the second worst stretch over the last ten years. The only worse period was January 2021, when GME was +353% in two days (long/short spread was -18% over two days). To the…
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Was told $SIVB would sometimes offer loans to money-losing startups at “mid-single digit” interest rates, whereas competing lender rates were often in the “teens”
Maybe it wasn’t just the long-dated mortgages that were the problem…
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Even before tonight’s Wells Notice for $COIN, USDC “stablecoin” outstanding has fallen sharply. Seeing that $COIN receives a cut of USDC’s float income (which is material at current interest rates), this is a significant loss of high margin revenue. Short $COIN.
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Played golf today with a commercial real estate lending broker that’s focused on the NY/NJ/PA/CT markets. Says he does biz with over 80+ banks, many of them local. Today, only about 10% of these banks are actively lending. Everyone else paused lending after $SIVB. 1/3
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Jamie Dimon, the best bank exec in the biz, warning that “now would be the time to fix it” for those businesses, investors etc. who are “too exposed to floating rates” or “re-fi” risk.”
He also says that some of the more exposed banks “can take actions to remediate issues they…
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Market ran $COIN up around +50% over the last week due to Bitcoin excitement, ignoring growing issues as evidenced by Silvergate, Signature et al. Efficient markets, indeed!
1/ Today Coinbase received a Wells notice from the SEC focused on staking and asset listings. A Wells notice typically precedes an enforcement action.
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In case anyone is wondering who is on the other side of all of those enviable sub 3% 15- and 30-year home mortgages, $SIVB bought $90 billion worth of them at the peak of the market and is now sitting on mark-to-market losses in excess of their tangible book
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Was not excited to wake up to see $FRC as the top trending Twitter topic recommended for me, but at least the algorithm is working better
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After way too many years, $TRUP is finally crashing, down -35% today and more than -80% from its highs. We fought $TRUP unsuccessfully on the short-side for years (thesis from Q2 2018 below!). Ironically, the underlying numbers today aren't much different than they were back…
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It’s fine, go buy stocks…
We can worry about rates, recession and geopolitics next quarter!
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Zuck is back
Zuck with an open letter to every company in tech:
"Since we reduced our workforce last year, one surprising result is that many things have gone faster"
"Indirect costs compound and it’s easy to underestimate them"
"A leaner org will execute its highest priorities faster"
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I outlined my $COIN short thesis on CNBC last week by arguing that $COIN is now essentially “at war” with the Federal Govt & its policy direction.
Indeed, it is likely that Gensler, Yellen & the Biden Admin were all consulted before the Wells Notice was issued to $COIN. 1/2
Wide-ranging 45-minute
@CNBCPro
chat today at the NYSE covering a variety of timely topics w/
@TheDomino
, including a recap of $SIVB, the outlook for the banking sector, and some long ( $SLGC , $AWE.L ) and short ideas ( $COIN ). Thanks for having me, CNBC!
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My trainer informed me that he's back in the trading business (using $SQ's Cash App) after a two-year hiatus. He's long $NVDA, long $BTC, long $AMC (because it has always been good to him), long $PLTR, and he's trying to "swing trade" names like $VMEO & $HIMS.
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I was at an off-the-record investor meeting last week that included numerous senior military and defense industry leaders.
My biggest takeaway is that COVID exposed - and the Ukraine war has exacerbated - numerous weaknesses in the U.S. defense industry supply chains, which all…
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This fireside chat with
@GavinSBaker
, Bill Gurley and Antonio Gracias is a must-listen. Great discussion about the evolution of AI, venture capital, Elon Musk, the future of the data center, and more.
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“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.”
- Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
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1/2. I’ve heard Lux Capital’s
@wolfejosh
speak many times, but he is at the very top of his game in this podcast. His views on emerging tech trends are worth their weight in gold, as are his thoughts on how he consumes information/connects the dots.
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The fiscal position of the U.S. is abysmal & deteriorating.
Ideally, the two parties will work out a “grand bargain” to rationalize spending while resetting entitlement adjustments to some fraction of CPI. This would allow the Fed to let inflation run a bit hotter while…
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A friend, who is running a generative AI start-up, told me that $GOOGL is likely to have an edge in maintaining access to content to train its AI models because publishers won’t want to opt out of the Google search engine. OpenAI and Bing don’t have this same carrot / stick.
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Hearing that $FRC telling some clients that they had significant inflows yesterday (presumably from $SIVB), and are expecting inflows today as well. This may be why stock is bouncing?
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How exactly did a 21-year old Massachusetts Air National Guardsman get access to all of these classified military and intelligence documents?
Something doesn’t add up.
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Malone’s annual master class in media industry chess. Always a must-watch and worth its weight in gold. Usually my favorite CNBC interview each year (Faber does a great job).
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China observations from a friend who just spent a month there:
- Economy is improved but not robust. Younger folks are spending with no worries; older generation is hoarding due to geopolitical and job loss worries.
- Border with Hong Kong is fairly wide open.
- High speed…
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Crypto is not my strong suit, but I am surprised $COIN is up today on $SBNY shut down? Any thoughts?
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There is no higher compliment, particularly coming from such an accomplished investor and teacher. Thank You, Jeff!
I feel like I’ve spent many a day in my investing career marveling at a Bill Martin home-run. Many congrats to a great investor.
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@AlderLaneeggs
@EpsilonTheory
@ttmygh
@fleckcap
@zerohedge
@mtaibbi
Hwang may be the Ivan Boesky of this cycle, and many roads tie back to $TSLA:
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Thank you
@BillAckman
for having the guts to stand up in the public eye against these Marxist agendas such as DEI. We all need to do our part too to stop this nonsense - speak up in the board room, go to the school board meeting, contact your alma mater, et al. Get involved.
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It makes sense for China to try to pay for its huge imports of energy, ag, et al with a yuan redeemable in their own goods. But don’t forget about China’s capital controls & the 15-30% haircuts that folks often pay to move RMB out thru HK or Macau. That’s not a reserve currency.
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A reminder that Mr. Powell & the Fed were still buying back mortgage-backed securities last March ‘22…!?
Fed hike may appear to show confidence & no-panic, but this only increases the deposit outflow & legacy HTM/loan pressures on banking system
Shorts are going to be busy
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“Forget about just fewer rate hikes, at this rate we might see rate *cuts* next week” (as he watches the frantic trading in $FRC, $SCHW etc) — Excellent investor that I respect
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$LBTYA / $LBTYK is one of my favorite ideas and also timely, with the potential to double in value if mgmt plays their cards right. The shares are likely to attract attention when the company outlines its plan to unlock value when it reports Q4 earnings in late Feb (I've shared…
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Well said, Senator Sinema!
Senator Sinema in Senate Banking Committee Hearing March 28th, 2023 to Michael Barr Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve:
"When people on Reddit and Twitter can spot bank mismanagement before the regulators, something is terribly wrong." 🔥🔥🔥
🔊...🤣
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Like many of his policies, Bernanke’s idea to host press confs and provide “forward guidance” was a mistake. Powell should do away with both and stop spoon feeding investors. Inject uncertainty back into the markets. This, in turn would create a healthier & more resilient system.
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There’s obviously a lot in play this weekend, over & above just $SIVB
BBG has reported on $SIVB sales process w/bids due soon. Rumors are that FDIC may raise insurance limits too
But politics & fast pace are tricky for all, which means this is likely going to be a long week
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Love or hate Brian Roberts and $CMCSA, but the 17-year average duration of their debt with a 3.6% interest rate that is 97% fixed rate is like a Monet painting of Philadelphia.
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Bill Martin, who called SVB's collapse, adds to his NYCB short and says it will end up a 'zombie bank'
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Raging Capital’s Fall 2019 $CVNA short thesis: a “subprime auto originator masquerading as a platform for used auto sales.”
Obviously, this was not a good short at the time but we closely managed our (small) position size and closed out the position before things got too wild.
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$SCHW lost over $40 b of low-cost deposits in Q1. “Higher for longer” interest rates would not be good for them.
Great franchise, but can’t see how regulators don’t lean on them to de-risk their bank by raising equity capital and/or selling assets.
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I was surprised FDIC deposit insurance limits weren’t increased, but perhaps that’s a bullet for later if necessary
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— Finally, it is super important for high level investors and entrepreneurs to have zero or as little debt as possible. When times are good, pay-off your house. This will make the roller coaster much easier to ride.
Good luck! 6/6
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It cracks me up to think about some young analyst at Whale Rock or D1 being assigned to go look at steel, met coal or E&P names
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“I would rather be governed by the first 2,000 people in the telephone directory than by the Harvard University faculty.”
-- William F. Buckley
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$ALLY has $140 billion in auto-centric loans w/just $8 b in tangible equity. I know auto loans performed admirably during the GFC, but this cycle is very different with sharply higher interest rates, collapsing residual values, and aggressive actors like $CVNA. Caveat Emptor.
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We were short 3D printing stocks numerous times over the past decade, but I think the tech is maturing & is critical as the U.S. seeks to onshore & rebuild manufacturing supply chains, particularly in defense.
These stocks have been wiped out - does anyone have any favorites?
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I’m re-shorting $SCHW today amid the 10-Year Treasury induced rally.
The balance sheet of $SCHW’s bank remains a mess due to its misguided mortgage exposures, and mgmt’s assumptions are aggressive. It appears that they are continuing to “hope” for the best-case rather than…
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I view it as actionable if Altimeter is taking a stake in $PYPL. Altimeter has had tremendous success with their $META bet, and they’ve had the hot hand lately. Folks will follow them.
I’ve spent a lot of time on $PYPL lately. Biz generates a lot of cash and is not expensive.…
PayPal: Time For a Radical Transformation?
PayPal is a classic example of a once-leading innovator that has become bloated and missed out on its vast opportunities.
It is too big, too slow, and lacks innovation. With over 20 assets spread out across 30 offices, including many…
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$AAPL 2023 doesn’t need to be a $KO 1999 redux, Mr. Buffett.
Book the gains, take a victory lap, and relish paying those taxes!
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The elephant in the room at $NYCB is the massive rent controlled multi-family loan portfolio. Due to NYC’s Argentinian 2019 rent rules, the value of many of these properties are now under great stress, particularly in an inflationary environment. 1/2
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Very rough $NYCB numbers:
725 mm shares goes to 1.25 b on capital raise, with another 300 mm warrants at $2.50. They effectively raised fresh capital at around $1.50 per share (plus or minus, depending on how you value the warrants).
Brings tangible book (if you believe the…
I discuss a few of my recent bank short positions in this article $NYCB $VLY $OCFC
Focus: Real estate pain for US regional banks is piling up, say investors
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Lone Pine, which has been the axe on these companies since they first went public, re-established big positions (in total accounting for 10%+ of their assets) in both $V and $MA in Q4
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Note that COVID only exacerbated the existing trend line, which is correlated to the increasing implementation of woke curriculum changes.
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We’ve all seen quotes from the Musk vs. OpenAI/Altman lawsuit, but it is worth spending 30 minutes to read the full doc.
The suit details the founding of OpenAI, the historical development & implications of AI, $MSFT’s advantaged position at OpenAI, and the view that AGI may…
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I've been thinking a lot this week about the famous Steve Cohen saying, "I'm a buyer down -15% and a seller down -25%."
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$HD only down -2% on a day when it reports abysmal numbers. Feels like no one wants to be short into a debt limit resolution…
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Expanding on my comments on China and its currency, here's a section of a memo I wrote in 2018 about China's "Golden Bathtub" of Capital & Information Controls. FWIW.
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@saxena_puru
Thanks for sharing, I’m short $FOUR and $GLBE on this list.
$FOUR has an impressive “story”, but a lot of their growth is manufactured (buying out reseller residuals at low multiples; pressuring gateway customers to upgrade through massive price increases) and they capitalize…
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I shared a few special situations/value-orientated investment ideas at our Ideas & Networking conference last week, all of which I've shared before but are worth highlighting at current prices:
$AMBC, $12.15: Trades at less than 50% of book value, with Puerto Rico and MBS…
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Pitchbook, the leading provider of data on private capital markets, is absolutely crushing it. Like a mini-Bloomberg in training. $MORN paid just $225 mm for it in 2016. Pitchbook is at $275 mm of run rate revenues and growing at 40%! Would love to own $MORN on a sell-off.
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Entire thread is worth a read, “the phase change has occurred” for banking industry
The phase change occurred. There is no going back to Wed when unrecognized losses in HTM books were (mostly) ignored. There is no going back to treasurers and audit committees not paying attention to cash balances. The path forward for large swath of banks is materially altered.
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