What people don't understand about what Reform are currently doing. They are not looking to grow their base with a vision of 33+% next GE. They are looking appear professional to stop too many voters getting cold feet the closer an election gets. They know that getting legacy

I see this drop for Reform in polling, but it makes no sense compared to the Gorton and Denton by-election and the last 3 months of council by elections. Reform got a higher vote share amongst a 30,000 turnout in an area with 30% Muslims and a younger, more metropolitan

The Green Party were the incumbents. They didn't challenge Reform. The Greens did well, they increased their vote share by 3% from 64%.

Any true forecast for 2029 has Labour or Tories with the highest and best chance of getting the highest vote share. Reason, it has happened in every general election for the best part of a century. There has been many times Labour and Tories have been out of the top 2 over the

I am going to be starting a holistic weekly tracker. A MRP of all polls. With weekly council by-election indicators. And any other data that can be pulled reliably. By-election data. Approval ratings. Other polls that I think are material (they matter). I will get this out

A round up of the By-elections results. Awful for the Lib Dems who are sinking into irrelevance. They didn't even finish second in any of the southern seats. Reform lost 1 and picked up 2. Labour gains, which doesn't surprise me as their Gorton and Denton result, despite what

What is most interesting here, Before the "squeeze", where Findoutnow ask again those who responded don't know, There was just 1% difference between Restore and Lib Dems. Restore UK are a headache for Reform, they've taken 10% of their 2024 vote. I will write about this more

Correct assumption from the result. If Gorton and Denton was a national poll and the results were weighted to turn it into the UK, Reform's weighted score would be 40%. Gorton and Denton showed what is possible with a good campaign and candidate. And if means there are few

This is a new account and a great follow. Really solid statistical insights for all you proper political nerds.

Those 18% dont knows are very interesting. Reform only taking 4% of the 2024 Labour vote is low. I think Reform overperformed in Gorton and Denton and it is because the candidate resonated with working class Labour voters. David Bull going on the offensive to Matt Goodwin

To be clear, there's no way Reform could have won in Gorton and Denton. Even though they were second. Reform got every vote they could. Whereas, people chose Green over Labour and tactically voted to keep Reform out when it was clear the Greens were leading. If Greens would not

I'm not sure it will frighten Reform in a voting perspective, Owen. To what degree they are genuinely scared of Green policy and the impact on the country, as they claim, I don't know. But it won't really impact Reform. A weak Green Party would have meant Labour hold in

Interesting week for By-elections, on the back of Gorton and Denton. The Lib Dems were cast aside last week, so they will need to get a strong showing in Sevenoaks. No Labour but the Greens are standing. Lib Dems usually win these seats when Tory dissatisfaction sets in.

I was in Gorton and Denton in the day and my experience with Muslim voters was not this. Out of the 33 Muslim voters I spoke to, all of them cited Gaza as their number 1 voting reason. When asked about other Green Party issues, such as drugs and trans rights, only a couple were

This tweet seems to have blown up a little. Regardless to any opinion on the matter, Muslim voters gather around Islamic single policy issues, like Gaza. It will be very hard for Labour to win these voters back. Near impossible under Starmer. By-elections can be misleading

The situation is a lot harder for Labour, which has to defend on both extremes of their voter base (not saying anyone has an extreme position, just the edges of their base). If they move to guard the left/Islamic flank, this will be a gift for Reform. Labour are the

If the Gorton and Denton by-ection result was weighted and turned into a National Poll, this is what the result would look like. Reform and the Green Party massively outperformed national polling and ran excellent campaigns. Despite the pressure on Starmer, Labour also

If the Gorton and Denton byelection was a national poll, and it was weighted to reflect the demographics of the UK and their voting likelihood, the poll would read Reform - 40% Green - 35% Labour - 22% Conservative - 2% Lib Dem - 1% In this scenario, Conservatives would be

For the record, this is not saying that the Greens and Reform are polling 35% and 40% nationally.. It is just saying they overperformed Vs national polling (of which national polling is accurate). Then offers suggestions as to why this is.

https://t.co/OUp7huCbdp