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Just how fast are voters casting ballots this cycle compared to the 2016 primary? At this time in that presidential primary we were at 580k returns, we just finished posting today and hit 830k.
Here is a link to our 2016 AV tracker:
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🚨🚨 250k+ returns in CA... we have never seen anything like this in the first week of voting.
This necessitates an early release of the tracker!
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How many returns by this point in 2016 you ask?
Checks notes... stops. Double checks notes...
Uhm... 13,000.
🚨🚨 250k+ returns in CA... we have never seen anything like this in the first week of voting.
This necessitates an early release of the tracker!
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🚨 One Million CA Ballots 🚨
Rapid return of ballots with three weeks to go.
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With 30+ years of experience, and having served over 15,000 campaigns, PDI today announces it will commit to progressive causes and no longer provide data or services to any Republican candidates or campaigns.
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Final tracker, 9.7 million votes cast. Thanks for all the great responses to our work. We hope we can work with you and your campaign in the future!
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🚨CA just passed the 3 million votes mark.🚨
This is 3X the number returned in 2016!
The increase is seen thought the state, so in this thread are the top 25 geographies searched on the PDI Absentee Ballot Tracker, with permalinks that will get you to the latest updated counts.
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🚨 11 MILLION || 50% of CA Electorate 🚨
Second images shows the closing of gaps, with Republicans growing their share of the vote while also we see another likely unrelated stream of young people gaining on Seniors and the electorate getting more POC and less white day-by-day.
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🚀Things are speeding up... and we aren't even done for the day. 1.58 million!
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The PDI Absentee Ballot Tracker is Back! This is the 7th iteration and always a ton of fun for us. Enjoy! Share!
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🚨 2.5 MILLION CA BALLOTS 🚨
See the ballots coming in with the tracker on your phone:
Or on a computer with more detail and precinct-level mapping:
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Going to
@Netroots_Nation
in Atlanta? Come visit
@pdi_national
launch party with a performance by KILLER MIKE!
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🚨🚨Breaking the million returns mark, with more than a dozen county files still expected today. 🚨🚨
For reference, in 2016 we were at 185k at this point.
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This is true. More Latinos have voted at this point in the 2020 election cycle than ALL voters in the 2016 cycle at this point.
Truly incredible. Over a quarter million Latinos have already voted for the 2020 Presidential Election in California. And we are 20 days away from Election Day. Y’all better get ready - Latinos are coming in loud and in massive numbers.
#YoVoyAVotar
@Political_Data
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New LA County early vote update (including an additional 20,000 in person votes) pushes CA over the 3 million votes cast mark but still just 14% of ballots returned.
Composition of the electorate hasn't budged. 50% Seniors just 10% age 18-34, nearly 70% white, only 15% Latino.
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We have passed 9.1 million ballots cast in the recall election. Get the tracker here… being updated all day.
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🚨 10 Million Ballots Returned in California 🚨
Both 18-34 year-olds and Latinos break the 2 million votes mark.
Trends show closing margins on partisan, ethnic and age metrics as in-person voting begins.
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The PDI Absentee Ballot Tracker is live! Check it out here!
See thread below for new features and some things to expect in the coming days as we add to it.
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It’s General Election Tracker time! This year, the first to receive the info on ballots cast will be those who have signed up to get the tracker sent to them every AM. First one comes early tomorrow. Get tracker for statewide/district/county/city here:
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🚨12 MILLION CA Early Votes Cast🚨
#1
in the Nation according to
@ElectProject
Partisan Split: 51% Dem, 25% Ind/Other, 24% Rep
More than DOUBLE the 2016 early vote, and in the AM report we will surpass total 2018 Turnout.
What to expect tomorrow?
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🚨One Million Ballots Returned 🚨
Or should the 🚨🚨 be 🤷🏼🤷🏼 ??
Fact is that we reached the million ballots mark two days earlier in 2018, 2020 and 2022! In 2021 recall we hit this number a full 8-days earlier!
Hard to read this as anything other than historically low turnout.
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🚨3 Million CA Ballots Returned🚨
Just one week to go!
Get the tracker in your inbox every am at:
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Done for the night, and on the cusp of 3 million ballots returned in California. Signup here to get the tracker emailed to you tomorrow morning:
Get a statewide report, or any jurisdiction in California.
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We're at 1% (with rounding)! The tracker will be released soon, make sure to signup for a daily email with a PDF of your favorite California district, or statewide. Expected launch within 24 hours.
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California's state redistricting commission
@WeDrawTheLines
just approved the new Congressional, Senate and Assembly lines one minute ago. When can you get them in your PDI Account? Right now. Consultant accounts can set geography to the new lines in Create Universes.
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2024 Primary 3,164,924 ballots returned Eday -1
2022 Primary 3,170,338 ballots returned Eday -1
24P is currently 50% D / 32% R / 18% Other
22P was 53% D / 27% R / 20% Other
24P is 56% Seniors / 8% 18-34
22P was 52% Seniors / 9% 18-34
24P 14% Latino / 22P 15% Latino
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995k ballots returned; choose your poison:
District tracker:
Local/State tracker:
Phone version district tracker:
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For those tracking the early vote, this is the level of intensity with which we are running through these: LA updated three times. OC twice. San Diego. Riverside. Alameda. 20 other counties. All before 2pm. Should get to 4 million returns shortly.
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We’ve broken both 16 million ballots sent and 1 million ballots returned! Keep track here:
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🚨 5 million returns in California 🚨
Including...
33% of 2020 Primary Voters
40% of Seniors
55% of PDI-flagged "early voters"
And more.... Dig in here:
And check out all the Top 25 searched locations below.
#1
most searched in the
@Political_Data
early vote tracker: 25th Congressional District
#CA25
View it:
Signup to get the report in a daily email:
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We keep saying there are 15 million California voters with ballots, and that was the initial send... but that number has grown as voters request ballots, register as PAV, or counties add areas to be all-mail precincts. About to hit 16 million. This. Is. Cray.
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Well, this is a new “all mail” election, so that makes some difference right? It can’t be TWENTY TIMES higher just on its own, right, you ask.
Checks notes.... uhm... 61% of Californians received a mail ballot back in 2016. So, ok, adjusting for that were only 12X 2016. Only.
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818k returns in CA. On equivalent day in 2018 we were at 528k.
2/3rds of this increase comes from Democrats who have returned 428k ballots, compared to 229k at this point in the 2018 Primary.
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🚨 6.5 Million Ballots Cast 🚨
30% of All CA Voters have cast ballots, including nearly half of Seniors.
Age 18-34 have broken the one-million mark and already exceed their 2016 vote-by-mail numbers.
Check out the top 25 county/district-level searches in the thread below.
#1
most searched in the
@Political_Data
early vote tracker: 25th Congressional District
#CA25
View it:
Signup to get the report in a daily email:
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🚨🗳️🚨🚨 California breaks the half-million votes returned mark! Remember, you can get this report emailed to you every night as a statewide or honed into any district here:
Or see the infographic and play with the data here:
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Over 11 million ballots were mailed in advance of the June 5th California Primary. Only with PDI can you get daily breakdowns with this kind of detail, coming directly from all 58 counties.
Desktop version:
Mobile version:
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5
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UPDATE: 3.4 MILLION CA BALLOTS!!!
Could hit 3.5 million later tonight!
(And a
@tableau
server upgrade, to make for a faster tracker!)
Congressional and Legislative districts:
State and Local views:
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This past weekend, PDI launched a custom relational organizing app with
@CA_Dem
. We're excited to be working with them to provide organizing tools across California.
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Final Numbers for tonight: 1,169,492 returns in California. Ending a day that in 2016 saw a grand total of 185,000 returns. Signup to get your updates in your email inbox tomorrow am!
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Many PDI users and others in the progressive data space just received notification about
@Political_Data
’s “Equity Universes” - a way for us and our clients to consciously reach more minority voters within our traditional targeting. Why? 🧵 below. 1/10
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Here it is! Who voted in 2016 General in California. Statewide totals plus county/district pull-downs.
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City of Los Angeles hits over 100,000 ballots cast. That’s still only 5% of voters who were sent ballots. 11-day vote centers open this weekend, with more opening next weekend - 17 days of voting so far, 13 days left!
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With nearly 100k ballots cast in CA, the new mobile version of the Absentee Voter Tracker is LIVE!
See statewide numbers, pick a district, or look at just a subset of partisan or ethnic turnout. All on your phone!
And it’s FREE!
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Early Vote Tracker - as of 10-20-2022 there’s nearly 900k ballots returned.
49% Dem (+2 over registration)
28% Rep (+4 Over)
23% Ind / Other (6pts Under)
Signup to get this emailed to you each am here:
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🚨 SEVEN MILLION Votes Cast in California 🚨
Ten Cities have passed the 50% mark - the biggest being Palm Springs.
Check out PS here:
Statewide in images below.
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Expecting to see a spike in ballot returns as counties opened up their 11-day early voting centers this weekend. So far only 11% of CA voters have returned ballots. Make sure you’re signed up to get these in your inbox this week.
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Final number for tonight in California: 2,265,751 returns from a record 12.8 million ballots sent to voters. This is up from 1.2 million returns at same 8-days-out period in the Primary (note: 8-days out was Memorial Day, so no returns on that day in Primary).
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🚨Over 1 Million Ballots Cast 🚨
Sign up to get daily emails with updates for CA Statewide, any legislative or congressional, county, county supervisor, city or city council district in CA!
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🚨One Million Ballots Returned 🚨
View the tracker and select for any political geography here:
Sign up to get this emailed to you each am for entire state or just the districts you’re monitoring:
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Big surge in voter registrations has pushed CA over the 21.5 million mark (86% of eligible voters). This will keep growing as we have another 13 days before the traditional registration deadline, and, of course, voters can register in person at any precinct thru Election Day.
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🚨 ONE MILLION VOTES CAST🚨
See the ballots coming in with the tracker on your phone:
Or on a computer with more detail:
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The Absentee Ballot Tracker will be coming soon. Signup here to get it emailed to you every morning.
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CA Vote tracker updated - 807,800 votes cast, breakdowns for every legislative and congressional district & county.
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Since the
@FiveThirtyEight
podcast focused on the
#CA27
as one to watch, here's how it is looking so far, in the Early Vote Tracker.
Dems are overperforming by 3pts and Republicans are overperforming by 1 pt, with those gains coming out of Ind voter underperformance.
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More California voters have returned a ballot for the 2022 Primary than the entirety of the 2018 Primary.
Of course, in the 2022 Primary there were TWICE as many voters who were mailed ballots.
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🚨 9 million ballots cast! 🚨
Democrats near 50% Turnout
2/3 of Senior Democrats have voted.
Top State Assembly, Senate and Congressional turnout:
#AD10
@MarcLevine
at 61%
#SD13
Jerry Hill at 57%
#CA18
@RepAnnaEshoo
at 58%
Despite huge spending
#AD59
@JonesSawyerAD59
at 22%
#1
most searched in the
@Political_Data
early vote tracker: 25th Congressional District
#CA25
View it:
Signup to get the report in a daily email:
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Let's call it 4 million.
See the full tracker, including the Top 25 California searches here:
#1
most searched in the
@Political_Data
early vote tracker: 25th Congressional District
#CA25
View it:
Signup to get the report in a daily email:
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ICYMI: For All California Legislative and Congressional Districts, and many counties and cities, we have the 2022 district counts - and likely voter universes. All free and on our public counts page.
2
5
22
Extra 90k LA returns just posted to client PDI accounts. Here's a snapshot of the tracker as of 2pm.
Age 18-34 voters at 3% turnout - Less than 1 in ten votes cast.
Seniors at 22% turnout - more than half of votes cast.
Latinos at 36% of registered / 20% of returns.
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8
22
New update has
#CA25
at a whopping 74,300 ballots cast. More than half of the
@AsmChristySmith
@MikeGarcia2020
Special Election turnout from April. In 2016 there were 78,000 early vote by mails, TOTAL, and at this point they were only at 13k.
#1
most searched in the
@Political_Data
early vote tracker: 25th Congressional District
#CA25
View it:
Signup to get the report in a daily email:
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Another 800,000 processed ballots hit the tracker today. All data nerds… you know what to do.
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shhh... its still early... but this preview of our 2018 General tracker is
#lit
#softopen
#donttellanyone
#privateshowing
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8
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Now in PDI absentee vote tracker, interactive precinct-level mapping of ballot returns, including party breakdowns. here’s Costa Mesa (In CA48 - Rohrabacher) as an example.
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14
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This is JUST the 700k ballots processed and reported today, March 5 (as of 3:50pm).
More Republican (34%) fewer Dems (48%) but also slightly younger voters, fewer seniors, although they are still an oversized 45% of voters compared to just 10% of 18-34.
2
7
20
New feature in the PDI tracker shows the changing rate of returns over time by party, ethnicity and age. Here is an example out of Solano County, where among the first 12k returns 61% are Dem (they are 48% of registration.
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5
21
UPDATE:
#CA25
returns, with fresh data from both counties. Small uptick to 123k ballots returned. 29% Turnout.
1
7
18
Roses are Red
Violets are Blue
Today PDI Launched an awesome new export directly to your favorite digital vendor so you can run VOTER FILE TARGETED digital ads, instead of just throwing a bunch of untargeted ads up on the internet for your next political campaign!
0
5
20
🚨 13 Million Returns. 🚨
Big updates in LA/OC. Statewide reports being emailed out to everyone who signed up at
Emailing out Legislative/Congressional Reports next.
1
10
19
For those closely watching the Early Ballot Returns. There will be a tracker email tomorrow morning, but we only received data today from a number of Counties, for a total of 55k returns. We should have big updates on Monday, with that email blast coming on Tuesday morning.
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New in the PDI Absentee Ballot Tracker... Click on the "D" to set the whole thing to just voters who have obtained a Dem ballot... meaning Dems + Non Partisans who have obtained a Crossover ballot.
1
5
17
CA Early Vote Update! 1.8 million votes cast. 800,000 cast with Democratic Presidential Primary ballots.
Check it out at:
Subscribe for updates emailed to you:
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Looking for some background on how CA Vote By Mail works? Check this out:
0
10
17
Your political consultant may need a hug after seeing this chart. Number of termed out CA Legislators 2000-2026.
http://t.co/KZaLKRiizv
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Feels like the rate of returns is decelerating as we head into the first day of in-person voting this three day weekend. Reports on Wednesday and Thursday of next week could be huge. Check out the latest on the live tracker here:
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A reference tweet for the 2016 General: Likely voter universes and how each is constructed.
1
5
18
The 25th CD has had higher turnout than the entire special election turnout, with a very skewed electorate. Should be the top race to watch in CA.... and it is.
#1
most searched in the
@Political_Data
early vote tracker: 25th Congressional District
#CA25
View it:
Signup to get the report in a daily email:
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3
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LA County / LA City total ballots returns near completion, and are updated in the tracker. If you’re wondering how many ballots were cast in each district check the tracker at
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Thanks
@beyondchron
for the
@OutreachCircle
mention. We’re proud our relational organizing tools were at the heart of this campaign. Now go vote!
"We may look back on this recall campaign for the relationship building and leadership development which will pay huge dividends for California Democrats in 2022."
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4
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Looking at some historic vote by mail data in preparation for tomorrow's presentation on targeting early/late mail voters () and this is just striking.
Until 2020, Republicans had a persistent advantage in the share of votes cast by mail. 🧵 1/4
1
7
17
The top Absentee Ballot Tracker search is for Congressional District 25.
#CA25
is the seat previously held by
@KatieHill4CA
and won in a Special Election earlier this year by Republican
@MikeGarcia2020
.
This link will go to the freshest data every day:
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Comparing 2020 with everyone voting by mail, to 2018 when 65% received a mail ballot, is totally problematic. But, with that caveat...
As of last night, 25 days before the election, 113k CA voters have cast a by-mail ballot. In 2018 that number wasn't reached until 20 days out.
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Coming soon to
@Political_Data
- free voter count visualizations, so you can see, for example, age, ethnicity & party of 2017 registrants.
1
3
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Our own
@paulmitche11
dissected the early recall vote and talked over the polling and election trends with
@LaurelRosenhall
@NateSilver538
and
@galendruke
in the second half of the
@FiveThirtyEight
politics podcast. Listen here!
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Los Angeles County ballot returns today, interesting partisan split. Among those who did mail or dropbox, 16% Republican. Among those who voted in person, 33% Republican.
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Wanna get the PDI Ballot Tracker in your inbox each am, statewide, county, city or districts? Signup link here:
Wanna know more about vote by mail in CA, and how to target these voters? Monday training with
@paulmitche11
signup:
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Look at the most recent million ballots reported in CA versus first three million ballots.
First 3m: 59% Seniors / 8% Under 35
Latest 1m: 29% Seniors / 17% Under 35
Not all counties report late, but looking at individual counties finds the same thing.
0
5
14
The City of Los Angeles returns are DOUBLE what they were at this point in the 2018 Primary. 53k compared to 26k (yes, still small numbers).
LA has historically been slower to adopt to VBM, so all mail balloting has a bigger impact. Also, a competitive mayoral race may help.
1
5
13
Just posted 345k more returned ballots. Those with accounts will have all those voters marked as returned throughout the day as we get data.
This update broke 5-pts more Republican, but also 10-pts more 18-34 and 10-pts lower 65+.
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The day is not done... but we've crested the 800k figure pretty quickly! Demographics are staying fairly stable since Friday.
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