@letterboxd

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i am sorry HFBI i will never doubt you again

Last 5 advisory trend for #Melissa The steady west shift has now resulted in the forecast track sitting south of Jamaica through Day 5.

We now have cross model support for the MJO to transition through the Maritimes and into the Pacific, with the exception of the ECM which is struggling with its Maritime barrier bias. Late November > early December still a period of interest for **potentially** cold weather.

Computer Models are going to be printing out some wild solutions in the long range for the foreseeable future. They just can't handle a long term negative NAO pattern. At a value of -2.1 as of October 14th, it is the lowest daily value since December 3rd 2024 and is forecast by

halloween in the 90s just hit different

Western Mass Regional Weather Report for October 16, 2025: https://t.co/PacwZp7Htp

The formation of Tropical Storm #LORENZO marks the 2,000th recorded system in the Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT) since it began in 1851. Over the last 174 years, we've now recorded 2,000 systems. This averages out to about 11.5 systems per year (depressions, storms, and

Looking cold late next week with upper trough positioned northeast of New England, but nearby... highs Thursday/Friday (for now) looks like 40s and 50s...

We suspect data will trend stronger with a cold front signal ~Oct. 17 - 21 related to the recurve of Typhoon Halong in the W. Pacific. AIFS-ENS trying to pick up on the signal. Getting to the time of year where this can at least briefly spike up heating demand and lead to more

Major typhoon off the coast of Tokyo, Japan now. Why do we care in the United States? This will become a massive post-tropical cyclone bombing out into western Alaska in a few days. All that energy will buckle the jet stream mid month and likely lead to a shot of cool air in the

LOL EURO epic fail

End of October, beginning of November with a phase 5 and then 6? Still some uncertainty, but a phase on the maritime continent could be very likely with a negative NAO/GH-Greenland High If confirmed, GFS was the first to see this dynamic following by ECMWF https://t.co/YahohUPbxf

Our high pulls south east. The cold lead flow will be replaced by warm return flow & pre-frontal flow. Next up is a seasonal level cold front meaning little rebound will be to follow. Anyone making a big deal out of this period of variable thermals are click baiting charletons.

#StormAmy is about to undergo RAPID intensification on its approach to Ireland and the United Kingdom. The GFS model below shows pressure plummeting by 43mb from 989mb tonight to 946mb tomorrow night. That’s almost double the threshold for “bombogensis” (24mb drop in 24 hours).

bunch of model agreement on a huge cold blast to affect Most of the United States later on this month. 🥶

Increasing likelihood that Hurricane #Humberto will impact the United Kingdom late week as a powerful extratropical cyclone. GFS Model shows a rapidly deepening low, with pressure dropping into the upper 940mb range in the North Sea.

#Humberto is at 145mph (125kts) & now it's expected to reach C5 status. Now given Humberto made a bit of a jog to the west, this would also help alter the track of #09L to its west. More on that later. #tropicswx

Who's ready to talk about #winter? Appears wave reflection will support the development of Greenland blocking & a negative bias in the Arctic Oscillation for late September & into early October. This is potentially favorable for cold & snowy weather in Siberia to kick off October