Met4Cast - UK Weather
@Met4CastUK
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UK Weather Updates | No drama, just weather | Making complex weather understandable | 20+ years of studying | Sensible forecasts without the hype ❌
Joined February 2020
The hypers are always going to hype, but as things currently stand; SECOND FLAG ISSUED: 🚩🚩 ❌ No significant blocking trends ❌ No cold across any models ❌ No sign of significant change Tropical forcing re: MJO & AAM isn't likely going to be enough to provide sufficient
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The tide is changing on cold potential // Following the stratospheric wave reflection we are now looking at a relatively mild and potentially very wet first half to December. The above event is overriding other drivers of our weather which on the face of it, favour blocked
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This is a perfect example of why taking the MJO in isolation doesn't work. MJO phase 7: Greenland blocking and a UK / NW Europe cold spell. Current pattern: Low pressure and Atlantic regimes.
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In the UK due to climate change, our average winter temperature has increased by 2.1°C since 1660. Days of frost and snow have more than halved in that same period. Earth is running a fever and it's because of us.
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It's officially the first day of winter 2025 / 2026. The weather may not be very representative of winter at the moment but that doesn't mean the logo cant be! ❄️
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30 agents. Cameras ordered off. @erictrump recounts the moment the raid began.
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The hypers are always going to hype, but as things currently stand; SECOND FLAG ISSUED: 🚩🚩 ❌ No significant blocking trends ❌ No cold across any models ❌ No sign of significant change Tropical forcing re: MJO & AAM isn't likely going to be enough to provide sufficient
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⚠️ Weather warnings for heavy rain today with an amber warning across Wales. Potential for high rainfall totals & flooding.
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Up, up and away #rapidvortogenesis The spv stratospheric polar vortex gaining strength, although likely only to near average
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The latest EC46 update has removed virtually all high latitude blocking and cold weather potential instead favouring more of a European / Scandi high. I think the likelihood of blocked & cold patterns is slipping away.
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The MJO is being mentioned a lot at the moment due to it's high amplitude phase 7. Whilst this can promote Atlantic / Greenland blocking it's not quite as simple as 1+1=2. Taking any single variable in isolation to make a prediction often results in a wrong forecast.
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The MJO is being mentioned a lot at the moment due to it's high amplitude phase 7. Whilst this can promote Atlantic / Greenland blocking it's not quite as simple as 1+1=2. Taking any single variable in isolation to make a prediction often results in a wrong forecast.
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Keep an eye on any high pressure building towards the northeast during the first week of December. Could potentially disrupt lows southeastward. First signs of our December cold potential? 📉
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Latest run of the Met Office high resolution model showing 130mm of rain on Monday on some south facing slopes of the Brecon Beacons. 60-80mm widely for upland Wales.
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There really is no spinning this. If it’s cold you’re looking for the model output could not be much worse for the UK. Horrifically wet.
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Where is the blocking / cold weather? If we look at the flux plot we can see there was a large injection of westerly momentum into the mid-latitudes, I suspect this would have been far weaker had the reflection event not happened. Conversely, it’s not like there is zero
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AAM is linked to a number of things, the MJO is one but so are mountain torques & frictional torques. You can have a favourable MJO but still see a falling or low base AAM, La Niña trade winds work to scrub westerly momentum from the atmosphere which is why during La Niña years,
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Where is the blocking / cold weather? If we look at the flux plot we can see there was a large injection of westerly momentum into the mid-latitudes, I suspect this would have been far weaker had the reflection event not happened. Conversely, it’s not like there is zero
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🚨 NEW CLIMATE OSCILLATION DISCOVERED🚨 In what is said to be "one of the most significant" advances in recent years about subseasonal predictability, researchers from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria discovered a previously unknown cyclic climate pattern, TWISO🧵
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