OPEC News+
@OPECnews
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Insight on OPEC+, cartels, energy, and mineral resource markets. Curated leads for investors, traders, analysts, and wonks.
Joined July 2009
Macroeconomics refresher:. Let. Y = GDP.C = consumption.I = investment.G = government spending.X = exports.N = imports. (on final goods). Where:. Y = C + I + G + X - N. A consistent measure of how socialist an economy/administration is will always be:. Degree of Socialism = G/Y.
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@Chesschick01 @WallStreetSilv This is a pretty unhinged comment. Although the dollar has seen some minor draw-down (Putin not wrong here), its price shows this hasn’t been significant—meaning, it’s not even close to being unloaded as world reserve currency, which is not an off-on determination to begin with.
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Of the “PIGS,” #Spain is easily the most corrupt, and either #Portugal or #Italy the least corrupt, with #Greece now likely less corrupt than Spain. Simply watch how they have handled the #Catalonia question. How does the @EU_Commission or #EU law tolerate this abuse of justice?.
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So funny. He thinks #OPEC controls/influences oil prices, when it has failed to act substantially as even a price-influencing cartel since late 1980s. US output growth has made OPEC even less relevant. Oil supply is quite elastic: OPEC cuts won’t increase prices significantly.
Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!.
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At current supply recovery rates (especially rig counts), oil supply is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels until near the end of 2022.
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Some indicators suggest a recession for the US before too long. What’s your best guess when it sets in? If you predict a given month or after this two year span, please comment (give your reason[s] if possible—assume likely government spending expectations).
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Although (a) they will not likely cut that much (and have signaled as much), and (b) supply is too elastic for the larger cut to matter as much as @realDonaldTrump thinks it will, it’s funny to watch, since the “deal” net harms both the US and Mexican economies.
Mexico agrees to slash 100,000 b/d in deal with OPEC brokered by Trump | #crudeoil #OPEC #OOTT. Full story:
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Wrong. Petroleum production represents just under 10% of Canada’s GDP (smaller proportion in US). OPEC+ only “saves” those relative few jobs at the margin while taking many more jobs out of the rest (90%) the economy. Federal “supports” would only increase the deadweight loss.
Alberta's energy industry supports over 500,000 jobs across Canada. The OPEC+ deal is a positive step but we still need the Federal Government to step up with financial support.
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Yawn: “global oil diplomacy/power” according to one low-analysis @bloomberg hack. “Trump and Putin involved in multiple phone calls to get an OPEC++ oil production cut agreed.” Says “Saudi Arabia to Mexico, fighting hard in their corner”—fringe competition renders deal impotent.
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We just saw a program on @FoxNews called #AmericaReports with @SandraSmithFox, and couldn’t believe what passes for even basic analysis of oil markets/prices. No concept whatsoever of supply/demand. Just a hack (totally unreliable/wrong) political theory of gas prices. 🤡.
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What’s great about today: so many selling at discounts what global demand is guaranteed to pull back up (especially on petroleum-related assets). It may last a while longer, as we find other nice discounts in related industries. Main adjustment needed is on currency expectations.
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@elonmusk @ScottAdamsSays Although we’ll not run out of fossil fuels, we’ve largely run out of very cheap fossil fuels. At slightly higher prices, sky is the limit on oil and gas especially. The seminal Coal Question by Jevons sheds light on key price dynamics, especially consumption technology change.
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True that many take vacation days as Christmas approaches, but that doesn’t relieve businesses, governments universities of need to schedule for ordinary business hours all the way through the season. If they slack there, take your cue as if a customer, investor, job candidate.
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.@Apple plans to kill all life on Earth:. "Our aim is to permanently remove carbon from the atmosphere."
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Saudis to #OPEC: get used to lower prices - http://t.co/AKv1hu0UDz
#oil #petroleum #energy #shale #Commodities.
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Apparently some think a phone call between Trump and Putin regarding oil markets is “consequential,” when neither have the power to meaningfully influence prices.
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@libsoftiktok Looks like flying thru Chicago O’Hare is a no-go for a while, @fly2ohare. Seems like a third-world situation that @chicago has asked for (and we don’t have to pay for if we don’t fly through there).
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A big mistake to even dabble in this, but will at least have little effect in the short run (there’s way too much oil in storage at the moment, and for a while to go).
#US-Canada oil perimeter to keep out #OPEC and foreign oil, and fix prices for producers and consumers, says Canadian financial guru
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A look at two OPEC+ members:. Venezuela gas 12% more proven #oil reserves than Saudi Arabia at 300B bbl, but faces about double the production costs at about $11/bbl. Together they represent about 34% of global proven reserves, and about 13% of production. #energy #petroleum.
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Why has #OPEC not had even price-influencing power since the late 1980s? Here's a clue on a micro-founded basis: http://t.co/VHFo887EPm.
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"Defending market share" is meaningless false bravado here: @PlattsOil: Jan #crude futures freefall on #OPEC decision http://t.co/oNuWYAqZYa.
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It doesn’t much matter that Trump “has spoken with” Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on oil. It’s quite irrelevant if Putin and bin Salman “are talking,” or he personally joins the talks. Beyond any very immediate/sort run, they can’t significantly influence price.
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It is indeed strange that former president @realDonaldTrump is willing to look like he’s hiding from a fight and from the people who might decide his fate.
SC State Rep. Nathan Ballentine echos calls from @NikkiHaley on challenging President Trump to a debate. @foxcarolinanews
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When hiring Gen Z job candidates:. 1. Test whether basics of claimed degree are remembered. 2. Check employment references/gaps well. 3. Prefer harder independent certifications/exams. 4. Check transcripts for math grades. 5. Examine style/form of email/notes (thank you note?).
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@SecDef Not a good look. You’re trying to (a) discredit @JeffreyGoldberg @TheAtlantic with (b) rehearsed misdirection-gaslight on the neo-Soviet political project—after (c) signaling you may be one of several FSB cabinet assets? . We note you’ve not denied/challenged the text leak claim.
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What market power? @WSJ: #OPEC, USA flooded #oil market. In rest of the world, production falling http://t.co/N44djN66Qo
#MineralEconomics.
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Key: not adjusted for inflation in root post. So let’s adjust oil prices for inflation in July 2023 dollars (CPI):. 1970: $9.4 (oil crisis/glut). 1980: $129 (Iran revolution). 1990: $52. 2000: $48. 2010: $108 (yet higher in 2008). 2020: $48 (demand collapse). Current Price: $85.
Average crude oil price by year (not adjusted for inflation). 1970: $1.2. 1980: $35. 1990: $22. 2000: $27. 2010: $77. 2020: $41. Current price: $85. (Source: OPEC)
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One of the most overvalued stocks right now: @Starbucks $SBUX. P/E ~190. Earnings haven’t recovered, all stores still closed except drive through, competition open, and face growing/huge labor (entitlement/grit) challenges. Most stores won’t even serve dark drip after noon! 🤡📉.
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Funny to see hacks in financial press pretend #OPEC had pricing power beyond 1988. #MineralEconomics #EnergyFinance
OPEC managed to get along at this week's conference in Vienna. The highlights:
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@RandPaul All true. Also true: Trump added ~ $8T (in today’s dollars) to federal debt (debt growth rate twice Biden’s), recently backed that huge pork bill that thankfully failed, has asked for the debt limit to be suspended, and thinks foreigners pay our tariffs. Why’d you back him? 🙄.
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Influenced heavily by US production: @BD_Analyst: #Canada slowly overtaking OPEC as largest US #Oil Supplier - http://t.co/abe3W4goAU.
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We’re about to see that Saudi Arabia is simply not as relevant as it was. Pulling its students out of Canadian universities is a blessing not disguised. Some Saudi students are great, but most have developed a reputation for laziness and cheating.
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Looks to comport with the overall progression of measured restriction easing across the west, except in the US in particular where it’s being converted into a political football (transparent).
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The real Iran is free in spirit. The swine running their state are getting nervous that this young county yearns to be free in fact.
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As gov debt aggravates G by interest cost, a measure of how an administration turns on socialism is real debt growth rate g:. Let. Da = debt at time a.Db = debt at time b.Ma = CPI at time a.Mb = CPI at time b. Thus. g = ln ( Db Ma / Da Mb ) / (b-a). (annualize time to per year).
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Whether you favor Harris, Trump, or Oliver, which of the following would most improve Trump’s standing?.
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OPEC+ signals production increase starting April 2025, leading some to think the market will flood with fresh oil. What has mineral economic history on oil markets taught us? In any event, here’s the latest IEA report:
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The schools are in Catalonia. Instruction that’s in any way state sponsored should be in Catalan, unless there’s strong democratic tide for another language (there isn’t—some isn’t strong). It’s not unlikely that Madrid will violate its own constitution to have its way here.
The simmering row over Spanish-language teaching in Catalan schools
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@Amena__Bakr We’ve been saying why for years: (1) OPEC hasn’t operated as a valid cartel in 35 years, showing inability to influence price (members shirk often), (2) supply curve is now much flatter since fracking appeared, (3) more efficient consumption, (4) more alternatives/competition.
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In recent Soviet news: . Rock band critical of Putin is detained in Thailand, fearful of deportation to Russia.
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And this will put the US in a tougher situation down the road: the world is burning more expensive American oil while Saudi Arabia holds back and positions itself more strongly in the future.
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Someone inform this slow fellow that George Orwell wrote a dystopian novel some decades ago called 1984 which features this sort of thought-police concept (with or without the phony “incitement” angle).
Met Police Commissioner Mark Rowley threatens to EXTRADITE and imprison American citizens over online posts. He does not rule out Elon Musk.
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The most incoherent item we’ve seen on oil markets in a long time. The severe economic illiteracy on who “controls oil price” is staggering (hint: not even OPEC has influenced prices in 30 years). None of them controls oil prices, jointly nor severally.
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Saw it coming as economic bellwether: @Starbucks made series of dumb moves, especially under Roz Brewer: not cleaning, brutal club/hip-hop music in stores, letting staff close stores early, extending lobby ban, cutting hours, etc. @starbucksprtnrs @StarbucksCare $SBUX #Starbucks.
Starbucks has announced that it is closing many stores over crime concerns, often in cities led by progressive prosecutors. via @TomHogan002.
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OPEC+ raising its long-term demand forecast is based on one reality: that the so-called “energy transition” is not likely to be what advocates hope it will be.
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Another fake “oil expert.” Hasn’t the foggiest idea of how oil markets work.
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Are #investors shorting #America? Burp or #bubble? Threat of trade capital drying up forcing international investors to go long elsewhere?
America’s economic growth slows to 0.7%
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@SenMikeLee Note that this debt is accumulated since Jackson paid it off in 1835. About 23% of that $34 trillion was added by Trump, nearly two thirds of which addition is not attributable to COVID. Why are so many in your @GOP silent on that, sweeping it under the carpet, or gaslighting?.
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This may not be the flashpoint for WW3, but it could be:. Venezuela prepares for possible invasion into Guyana.
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@tweet4Anna_NAFO @ZelenskyyUa @POTUS Russian state media allowed to record what other western outlets apparently couldn’t.
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JUST IN—Maduro declares himself the winner in Venezuela after ordering ballot counting early and sending in gangs to polling places to steal ballot boxes, while exit polls show overwhelming support for Gonzalez. Election likely stolen once again.
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Also, $100 isn’t a benchmark. It’s more like $130 to get the “$100” of when the $100 mark mattered. In other words, oil prices are not and haven’t been that high recently: anyone who thinks they were, is indeed a bad analyst (can’t adjust for inflation—a basic skill).
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Hamas is dependent on Iran for its weapons. Iran is dependent on Russia, then China. This is a key link in understanding how the sovereignty of Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel are related. Beyond exercises/drills, what are key hardware/military synergies between Moscow and Beijing?.
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The risk illiteracy is astounding in those who imagine that lockdowns, mask orders, and travel bans do not impose a greater harm than they prevent/delay. The elderly and other high-risk folks can be protected while the rest of the world recovers.
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A mistake for all of them. They’ll learn the hard way.
Countries are banning the sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030: . 1. Norway 🇳🇴 (ban by 2025).2. Denmark 🇩🇰 .3. UK 🇬🇧 .4. Germany 🇩🇪 .5. Ireland 🇮🇪 .6. Iceland 🇮🇸 .7. Netherlands 🇳🇱.8. Greece 🇬🇷 .9. Israel 🇮🇱 .10. Sweden 🇸🇪.
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Those who criticize OPEC+ for their policies do so because they think OPEC+ has more market power than it does (don’t realize how the cartel repeatedly fails to coordinate at valve.
Those who criticize OPEC+ for their policies should “mind what they say” Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal tells me in Munich. “It’s hypocritical.”
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This is China’s mistake to have a “SPR” in the first place, and the US should have emptied its “SPR” decades ago. Governments are absolutely horrible speculators, especially in oil.
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Happy Thanksgiving to our American friends and all those who celebrate! We are thankful to have you along for another wild year in oil and resource markets. ⛽️.
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And it won’t matter much, and may not be noticeable, since oil supply is effectively way more elastic since the last time OPEC could even influence prices over 30 years ago.
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How prepared are you for a crash? How many months in essential expenses do you (really) have saved (debt payments are essential if not deferrable).
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As we signaled, “OPEC+” meeting would have no power to raise prices. Note there’s a small cadre of pseudo-correspondents who imagined they were giving a blow-by-blow account of an event, apparently not knowing enough about the underlying economics to recognize it would be a dud.
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Russia’s institutional rot is quite thorough. They can still win, however unjust that would be. But, given Ukraine’s resilience, resolve, and (operationally sound) international materiel support—Russia may lose. Squatters in East/South may want to move.
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Economic illiteracy is a political disease. See @RepStefanik's big-government record w/ @club4growth scorecards (not sure how she's not in opposing party, rather than @GOP). Scores lower than big-government Washington-establishment darling @RepLizCheney @Liz_Cheney. Pass it on.
Energy security is national security. Pass it on.
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@LauraBorras @Google Aside from unfortunate branding of Castilian as “Spanish” (assumed hegemonic name most today use), it’s sad to see important languages like Catalan (11 million speakers) marginalized. We even see some @twitter tweets fail to translate, but good to see they often are, @elonmusk.
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Distillation: This bizarre episode isn’t a win for Putin—visibly wounded, scarred with vulnerability. Instead of looking like a decisive autocrat or mob boss, Putin left Moscow after issuing an angry video in which he was off his usual self-assured game.
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Worry over coronavirus is likely overblown for oil and gas markets. Most all industry in and related to Asian markets has decent temporary near substitutes in operations, distribution, and marketing. Weather has more of an effect. Sets up a possible (discounted) long opportunity.
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Another reason @NATO should kick Turkey out. Monetary instability leads to strategic risk.
BREAKING: 🇹🇷 Turkey reports annual inflation of 64.8% in December, the highest in 13 months.
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@elpuntavui The most advanced countries in what, Northern Africa? Is this the House of Bourbon channeling the Umayyad Caliphate with a Francoist veneer again?.What is advanced about a constitution that allows political prisoners?.
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@spectatorindex If we apply an accuracy filter to Fox polling, the estimate becomes:. Trump: 38%.DeSantis: 31%.Haley 10%.Pence 9%.Ramaswamy 4%.Hutchinson 3%. Runoff simulation on the top two:. DeSantis 56%.Trump 44%. “These can be very shifting sands.”.—Hunter S. Thompson.
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@RogerJStoneJr @ZelenskyyUa False. Are you an FSB asset?. In February 2022, Putin declared: Minsk agreements "no longer exist,” and glibly blamed Ukraine for their collapse. Russia then invaded Ukraine February 2022. And it is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that automatically breaks the Budapest Memorandum.
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Annual US Federal Real Debt Growth Rates by President:. Biden by 8/26/22 -1.53%.Trump 6.13%.Obama 6.12%.Bush2 5.38%.Clinton 2.85%*. *Data begin ~2 months after Clinton took office. Won’t make a big difference to growth pacing.
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As we noted would happen about a year ago or more.
Demand is soaring for oil storage tanks in Singapore, in a sign that a flood of Russian fuel is being blended and re-exported globally via @markets.
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@FT It’s not any sort of “internal review” that would stand up to any sort of serious academic scrutiny. It’s basically someone grading their own essay (and covering their rear). So sad to see Financial Times carry water for an “internal review.”. Attn: @BillAckman @NeriOxman.
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Reminder: if you get an MBA from any place while having a decent bachelor’s degree in a business discipline, it doesn’t look good, no matter how high your grades are: you’re properly seen as double dipping. The MBA was created for engineers with work experience (that’s it).
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Why does @Starbucks have such a tough time brewing decent (non-Pike) #coffee in the afternoon? The pour-over method isn't getting it done.
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Printed versions of the Mountain Directory have almost 240 pages of text and color relief maps (downloadable). Save time and fuel to make your road trips more efficient and enjoyable.
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Interesting poll for republican @GOP voters in the US:.
@jimiuorio Alternative version of this poll. Preference for president 2024:.
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This is the main transition that’s going to matter: increased oil refining capacity in more places (will increase price stability and prevent spikes).
Them: the world is rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels. Me: where?. India’s investing $60 billion to expand oil refineries by 20% over the next 5 years.
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