Thoughts ahead of the Spring Statement tomorrow, in particular on where the story goes next: https://t.co/Y9HXs3CX8i

Great to join @hugorifkind this morning on @TimesRadio ahead of budget madness.

It will be interesting to see the impact assessment of the Mansion Tax. Loses the exchequer money over the first three years, suggesting a reasonable expectation of a behavioural response as prices adjust. The slab structure also rather suggests that R&M just below each threshold

So departmental spending will grow by 0.9% in 2028/29, then flat in 2029/30, before growing again by 1.4% in 2030/31. Looks clearly gamed for the fiscal rule and hard to believe these totals ahead of a general election. Tricks and wheezes.

Definitely one to watch. Reminder that plans from the last gov had departmental spending at 1 percent real per annum. A drop to 0.5 or even above likely to be a tough sell. Does this really survive contact with the Cabinet, PLP and 2027 spending review?

Makes me think: either it’s untrue or someone punted it out, knowing that markets needed conditioning before.

Have to say this is unreal. What do they seriously think would have happened in markets if they’d done this?

Good to join the spectator team on Budget Eve.

This seems a world away from the same voices who were pushing for Reeves to go much further to loosen the fiscal rules last year…

Didn’t quite materialise in Liverpool, but clear the internal political pressure has moved the Chancellor to accept a full scrapping of the cap.

Can governments raise taxes – and get away with it - and how might Rachel Reeves be planning to do just that in the budget? Great episode of Westminster Insider on history and context behind the weekend pitch rolling with a fantastic cast list including Jeremy

UK government current budget deficit tracking £15bn more than projected in March at £84bn ytd. Securonomics and the Oct 24 change to the UK fiscal rules was about boosting capital spending and balancing the current budget. The latter is tacking off in the wrong direction.

Great to get the chance to contribute to this.

Really sad news and such a legend. Was lucky to meet him once. So many iconic bass lines on that timeless album: I Wanna Be Adored, Shoot You Down etc

Curious from the Chancellor, this. Most importantly, she needs to retain not spend a larger buffer. It also calls into q the politics of the decision to unfreeze thresholds last year. Better to have held and then had it in the locker as an option for a pre election tax cut.

Happy to add some value!

As it would be a new devolved power which some Mayors may or may not choose to take advantage of, difficult to see how this contributes to plugging the hole at the Budget

Big Budget q now is: will there be any ‘pain’ in the short term? If everything - threshold freeze, spending wheezes, deferred property tax - is backloaded then this will lead to serious credibility doubts.

Maybe this shifted the OBR forecast numbers?

Pleasure to do this and offer a view on an eventful day!

Watch the politics of possible threshold cuts very carefully. This will hit ‘payslips’ and every chance voters hate it as much if not more as a sleight of hand. If an early introduction of tax rises in April next year, that’s a month before locals!