Cedar Grove Capital Management
@cedargrovecm
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Multi-strategy investment fund focused on L/S, M&A Arb, and other Special Situations. | CIO @paulcerro
Michigan, USA
Joined July 2021
On Monday, we sent around our 1-pager + work from @TenvaCapital regarding our separate positions in Sanuwave Health $SNWV Jesse (Founder of Tenva) has written great work to break down the company and the opportunity. We think SNWV is in its early innings of a multi-year
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This morning, we released an update on our $DKS arb trade and new trades into $LNSR, $PRPL, $LE - $DKS trade closes today; 9.2% return or 29.9% annualized - $LNSR poses a similar return like our $DKS/ $FL trade where the arb spread is ~15% in the ST with a CVR in play; deal
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$WW formally entering the fray with menopause treatments and taking ads to a different level with Queen Latifa. All part of the rebrand as a leaner, more relatable company to consumers searching for help. Will be interesting to see the response from consumers. 1/2
This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy. We previously shorted $WW in Jan'24 and we think that at just ~4.6x FY'26 EBITDA, material upside risk exists post-BK.
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This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy. We previously shorted $WW in Jan'24 and we think that at just ~4.6x FY'26 EBITDA, material upside risk exists post-BK.
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Looks like Soho House $SHCO will be taken private at $9/share with MCR buying out the remaining outstanding shares. Management + Ron Burkle will be rolling over their equity. This deal seems to be different than the one announced ~9 months ago and does not pertain to the deal we
This morning, we sent around a "bunch of quick updates" regarding current or past positions that we've shared research on. Those updates are as follows - Soho House $SHCO - LENSAR $LNSR - Liquidia $LQDA - Capri $CPRI - GEN Restaurant $GENK - DICK'S Sportng Goods $DKS/ $FL -
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Two recent wins Our RealReal $REAL call that we published back in April and reinforced in May after the sell-off > +42% now Liquidia $LQDA pitch from Jan 7th which as of this morning, is now up >100% in 8 months Appreciate all those who subscribe to our work! @cedargrovecm
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This morning, we shared around a new idea that we think could double that's hiding north of the border. - Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry - Has grown topline >20% a quarter for the last 11 Qs Have a look below for key points and link
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Bumping $OWLT because it was one that didn't get love for a long time. Jumps 28% today on killer earnings and raise on guide. A microcap that's up 127% in 10 months Congrats to those who went for the ride
New report out. We're long Owlet $OWLT, a provider of FDA-approved baby monitoring devices. We believe that after years of a tough deSPAC situation, the company's financials are finally inflecting and are poised to supercharge growth domestically and internationally.
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We've done so much work on Capri $CPRI around the divestment of Versace and keeping up with how trends are doing at the stores and the math behind it. Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16% right now. Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work.
This morning, we sent around a "bunch of quick updates" regarding current or past positions that we've shared research on. Those updates are as follows - Soho House $SHCO - LENSAR $LNSR - Liquidia $LQDA - Capri $CPRI - GEN Restaurant $GENK - DICK'S Sportng Goods $DKS/ $FL -
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$HIMS released their new "study" to show that their personalized GLP-1s are better than the branded but once again, for the third time now, their claims are misleading. They keep referencing the BHI study but last October, we highlighted all the reasons why that study is flawed
We released an updated report on $HIMS this morning regarding their weight loss paper published yesterday. Both their medication kit and compounded GLP-1 offerings produce some encouraging results; however, not all the reports' claims are intellectually honest. Link in 1st cmt
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Our recent article outlines our investment in OneSpaWorld $OSW earlier in the year with just a few hours of research. It highlights that markets are quick to throw the baby out with the bathwater due to misunderstandings about the company. This mismatch allows investors to seize
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Progress is slow, but you don't lose unless you quit. ~3 months ago, I was #43 on Substack's rising 100 global financial writers. Today, I was alerted that I'm now #2 of the top 100. @cedargrovecm has grown from a no name blog sharing investment ideas to being featured in
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Just sent paid subs out quick note on how we moved on OneSpaWorld $OSW with just a few hours of research. This mainly stemmed from a mis-priced asset getting thrown out with the bathwater which presented a great r/r opportunity. Find it in the usual place.
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Great in-depth article this morning on $HIMS My contribution
In recent months, Hims has been the topic of fervid conversation, disdain and intrigue among any number of groups—pharma companies, short sellers, meme-stock investors, and, of course, those trying to find an affordable way to shed a few pounds. For @BW
https://t.co/y207i54nhY
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It's official, our Owlet $OWLT pitch is now up >100% since we pitched it in October of last year (9 months ago). The company is doing great things in the baby care space, and we were able to see not just a great product market fit but a robust way of getting sizable growth.
New report out. We're long Owlet $OWLT, a provider of FDA-approved baby monitoring devices. We believe that after years of a tough deSPAC situation, the company's financials are finally inflecting and are poised to supercharge growth domestically and internationally.
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Yea so Wegovy (both the discounted and regular price) is now not on the $HIMS website They still have their personalized Semaglutide ads up on $META and have completely removed their Wegovy branded assets $NVO
No discounted Wegovy, or even regular Wegovy, is now on their site $HIMS, totally removed CC: @MichaelAlbertMD
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I TOLD YOU $HIMS None of it made sense. Retail cult in this stock is such a joke. All of you. Such a joke. Be better at this before you open your mouths This is a precursor to potentially the nuclear option. 🍿🍿🍿
Just went through the $HIMS flow again and my god, what a pile of garbage They're still pushing personalized semaglutide even after you make up stuff to get it and I don't think $NVO fully grasps just how much they're probably still doing it. Below are the screen grabs
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A follow up for why we said that the recent $HIMS retention claim is misleading. Based on Gleason data published in May 2024, patients on Wegovy had a ~70% retention rate at the end of three months and didn't dip below 60% until after 4 months 👇🏽 https://t.co/nJug7kQUAx
cedargrovecm.com
Why Andrew's recent Tweet is misleading and also, maybe self-incriminating?
Andrews tweet last night about having better retention is incredibly misleading and I can prove it Will share around for free later today - trying to catch a flight ATM - so stay tuned. $HIMS
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Another win for us and anyone who went along for the ride. We pitched Owlet $OWLT back in October of last year when it was a left for dead company with a $70M market cap. Fast forward to today, the stock is up >73% since our pitch on strong demand and international expansion.
New report out. We're long Owlet $OWLT, a provider of FDA-approved baby monitoring devices. We believe that after years of a tough deSPAC situation, the company's financials are finally inflecting and are poised to supercharge growth domestically and internationally.
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