Space Weather Watch
@spacewxwatch
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Aurora forecasts and solar physics updates by a space weather physicist. Opinions may not represent official gov't forecasts.
The Sun
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Sorry I haven't posted a lot recently. I came down with COVID in February and have been working through a preliminary diagnosis of CIPD since, a neurological condition where your immune system mistakenly attacks your nerves. It's been many weeks of being out of commission, and…
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(UPDATED) TONIGHT'S AURORA FORECAST:
Based on current data, we've moved our possible Northern Lights viewing farther south. A moderate, strong, or severe geomagnetic storm is possible.
Aurora viewing is likely in the United States tonight as Earth is impacted by a strong solar…
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STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY:
NASA Moon to Mars' modeling of today's Earth-directed solar storm indicate likely effects at Earth starting late on April 23.
A moderate (Kp=6), strong (Kp=7), or severe (Kp=8) geomagnetic storm is possible.
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Darkness can't come fast enough for the United States and Canada! A powerful geomagnetic storm is now underway.
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Yesterday's center-disk eruption is expected to be Earth-directed, and perhaps strongly: a moderate, strong, or severe geomagnetic storm is possible.
Arrival varies from late in the day tomorrow to late in the day Wednesday. We'll post aurora viewing maps later tonight.
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A complex filament eruption occurred in the Sun's southern hemisphere early this morning, producing a likely-Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) in coronagraph imagery.
The solar storm is expected to arrive at Earth late in the afternoon Monday or Monday night, possibly…
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SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM REACHED:
NOAA/SWPC issued a Severe (Kp=8/9) Geomagnetic Storm Alert and a Kp=7 Warning until 06:00Z April 24.
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EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR STORMS:
"All power to the lasers!" Three eruptions occurred this morning from the Sun, the later two which are associated with Active Regions being much more interesting in terms of Earth-directedness. Analysis of these events is still ongoing, but we are…
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SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST:
Aurora viewing will be possible in the United States on Sunday night into Monday morning before sunrise, provided that today's likely Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts Earth as forecast--more details below.
Current estimates…
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Oh my goodness.
In the great words of
@ReedTimmerAccu
, this is a GODZILLA solar storm. Powerful and fast. We'll have more for you as information becomes available.
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Last night's severe geomagnetic storm, a storm rivaling intensity last seen in the early 2000's, was extremely well predicted in arrival time and intensity--a true testament to the brilliant and thoughtful analysis of space weather researchers and folks working in the field.…
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What an incredible night! With the magnetic field intensity current stable at 33 nT and the southward component locked in -31 nT, the intensity of tonight's geomagnetic storm will rival any storm seen in the last 20 years.
Based on this data,
#aurora
displays are possible all…
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MODERATE TO STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY:
Coronal mass ejections launched yesterday and today from the Sun's eastern side may impact Earth on Sunday. While Earth isn't expected to get the brunt of the storm, a minor (Kp=5), moderate (Kp=6), or strong (Kp=7)…
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EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR STORM LIKELY:
We're still waiting coronagraph imagery to tell us about the size and velocity of today's M9.9-class solar flare induced coronal mass ejection (CME), but it is clear that a significant solar eruption has taken place, as evidenced by the coronal…
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A storm for the record books! U.S. Air Force magnetometers have reached the top of the geomagnetic activity scale, reaching its maximum 3-hourly Ap of 400 at 20:00Z (Kp=9).😂
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MORE GEOMAGNETIC STORMS LIKELY TOMORROW: An extremely large coronal hole has passed over the solar central meridian, and its associated stream of faster solar wind is currently en route to Earth. Combined with a coronal mass ejection that was launched from the Sun on December 01,…
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Yes! The Sun exploded, sending energy in Earth's direction. It may arrive Monday evening or night if it doesn't miss. If it hits, the Northern Lights may go wheeeeee wheeeee wheeeee! All the way home!
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SUN COMPLETES VERY RARE MAGNETIC REVERSAL:
New video from the NOAA GOES-16 spacecraft shows that the Sun successfully and safely executed an extremely rare magnetic polarity reversal (MPR) near March 31 at 00:32Z, as was previously forecast, tipping approximately 135 degrees in…
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POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG STORMS CONTINUE: While one CME is currently impacting Earth, the Sun launched yet another CME at Earth this afternoon. This solar storm, seen as a full halo, is expected to arrive late on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a potentially strong…
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Strong to severe geomagnetic storms continue, bringing
#aurora
well down into Europe.
Chances for aurora as far south as California, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, Alabama, etc if the storms hold in intensity headed into this evening, otherwise, a good portion of the U.S.…
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Watching and waiting now for our solar storm.
I think we'll have to get real lucky to see aurora this far south, but here is the typical Kp=7 map across the United States. Locations in green have a shot at seeing aurora to the north when the planetary K-index increases.
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Strong interplanetary shock at Earth detected at 17:01Z. The coronal mass ejection has arrived.
Moderate, strong, and severe geomagnetic storming expected.
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‼️ AURORA CHASERS I SAY TO YOU PREPARE YOURSELF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ‼️
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STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY:
NEW: NOAA/SWPC issued a Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Watch (Kp=6) for tomorrow, May 7 and a Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch (Kp=7) for Monday, May 8 due to potential coronal mass ejection influences.
(I hope I get to see aurora for the…
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8:30pm ET Space Weather Update:
After 4-6 hours of intense severe geomagnetic storms (Kp=8), things are settling down (relatively speaking). There's still a strong geomagnetic storm ongoing (Kp=7) that should bring aurora down to mid-latitudes. It's finally getting dark on the…
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DEC 01 AURORA + CLOUD FORECAST:
SYNOPSIS: Moderate to strong geomagnetic storming is expected in a window late Thursday into early Friday as several solar coronal mass ejections including yesterday's full halo covered in previous posts are currently en route to Earth. The storms…
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THE SUN SHIFTING INTO THIRD GEAR:
The Sun is really kicking it into a higher gear now with several significant eruptions in the last 48 hours, including two full halo CMEs seen just today which are likely far-sided. These are followed by another wide eruption to the southwest…
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A whole bunch of solar storms could be headed our way over the next few days as space weather forecasters try to untangle a barrage of coronal mass ejections that have left the Sun over the last few days. NOAA/SWPC has issued a Minor Geomagnetic Storm Watch out for today (23 Sep)…
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SUNDAY EVENING NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST:
Aurora viewing may return to the United States on Sunday evening as we watch for the potential arrival of two seperate solar storms which were ejected from the Sun's eastern side yesterday and today.
Current models show the potential for…
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Two major solar eclipses across America in the next seven months, who's ready?!
The "Ring of Fire" annular eclipse will occur in less than two weeks time before leading to a total solar eclipse on April 8 of next year.
Some lucky folks in Texas will be in the path of totality for…
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Enhanced Northern Lights viewing possible tonight at Earth continues to experience effects from a coronal mass ejection which started impacting Earth's magnetosphere earlier today.
The CME seems to have originated from the Sun late on September 14, though there is currently some…
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NORTHERN LIGHTS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDS:
Planet Earth is likely to experience effects from this evening’s significant coronal mass ejection in the late Wednesday timeframe. At this time, minor, moderate, or strong geomagnetic storm appears likely. This would mean increased…
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STRONG CME IMPACT IMMINENT:
Strong interplanetary shock expected to arrive soon at Earth.
STEREO A data (located just east of the Earth-Sun line) observed magnetic field enhancement from 10 nT to 30 nT, which at Earth will likely create a strong geomagnetic storm.
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An M1.7-class solar flare just occurred in association with a significant, large filament eruption near S20E11 that appears to be Earth directed. A full-halo CME is possible.
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EARTH-DIRECTED HALO CME CONFIRMED:
Today's M9.9-class solar flare and subsequent CME did result in a likely Earth-directed eruption; with the Sun blocked out in SOHO imagery, you can see the Sun's outer atmosphere and the solar storm's front more prominently to the south but also…
EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR STORM LIKELY:
We're still waiting coronagraph imagery to tell us about the size and velocity of today's M9.9-class solar flare induced coronal mass ejection (CME), but it is clear that a significant solar eruption has taken place, as evidenced by the coronal…
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BIG TIME coronal mass ejection, and likely aimed right at Earth!
As
@ReedTimmerAccu
might call it, an absolute GODZILLA CME!
More info tomorrow--be sure to stay tuned for updates!
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Ireland tonight:
Massive aurora display ongoing at the moment. This is Rosses point sligo just now
#ireland
#aurora
#northernlights
#auroraborealis
#eire
#astronomy
#europe
#astro
#space
#spaceweather
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HAPPY NEW YEAAAARRRR!!!!!!
An X5 class solar flare ends the year in style 😎
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While we were busy celebrating yesterday, the Sun launched a new CME in Earth's direction. This one is expected to be relatively weaker than this weekend's events and is expected to arrive the first half of Thursday.
A minor or moderate geomagnetic storm is possible.
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GEOMAGNETIC STORMS LIKELY 16-18 DECEMBER:
Here are predicted Earth arrival times (and uncertainties) across the space weather community for yesterday's coronal mass ejection event which was associated with an X2.8-class solar flare.
Please note, inherent in these arrival times…
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MODERATE SOLAR RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS:
Our biggest solar radiation storm since 2017 is brewing—we’re now in a moderate solar radiation storm (S2 Warning) due to particles Earth is receiving following a significant solar flare.
Hazards include polar radio communication…
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Aurora in Arizona… wow wow wow
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A very significant ~X6.3-class solar flare is in progress (the last flare of its approximate magnitude was in 2002).
The flare is still in progress, but when it quiets down, it will take 26th place for most intense solar flares observed all-time using satellites.
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WEDNESDAY NIGHT AURORA FORECAST:
The Northern Lights may return to the U.S. tomorrow night or early Thursday morning as we anticipate the arrival of a significant coronal mass ejection which was released near the Sun's southwest limb yesterday (see previous posts).…
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We briefly interrupt space weather news to bring you the greatest intercept of a significant tornado ever recorded.
@ReedTimmerAccu
in
#Nebraska
today:
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SOLAR STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT EARTH SATURDAY:
Analysis of yesterday evening’s Earth-directed CME performed today shows earliest possible arrival very late Friday (early in the Zulu day Saturday), but as late as Saturday evening.
Forecast intensity generally ranges from a minor…
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NEW HALO CME, POSSIBLY EARTH-DIRECTED:
A large filament eruption occurring near the Sun's central meridian in the southern hemisphere occurred around ~19:00Z today, leading to a large and wide coronal mass ejection (solar storm). As you can see, the bulk is seen mostly directed…
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NEW EARTH-DIRECTED CME:
A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a long-duration M-class solar flare was observed mostly to the northeast in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. Both the halo signature and the flare source from very near disk center indicate the…
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Today's X2.8-class solar flare is the most intense solar flare since September 10, 2017 (2,295 days ago).
Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory, 131 Angstroms
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EARLY FRI MORNING AURORA FORECAST, POWERED BY
@meteoblue
:
The
#NorthernLights
may possibly return to the United States Thursday night or early Friday morning as we anticipate arrival of one or more likely-Earth-directed solar storms which were launched from the Sun July 3rd and…
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AURORA FORECAST: Tonight's aurora forecast for the potentially impending moderate/strong geomagnetic storm shows generally cloudy conditions over the Northeast and better than average conditions for parts of Michigan, the Rocky Mountain West, the Pacific Northwest. Details below:
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An Earth-directed halo coronal mass ejection occurred yesterday in association with a broad region of dimming centered near Active Region 3480 on the Earth-facing solar disk.
NOAA and NASA heliospheric models currently show support for the solar storm arriving as early as late…
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An interplanetary shock was observed at Earth, likely associated with the CME late on May 7. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storming is likely tonight, with strong storming possible. This will be only post on this event—I’m going aurora chasing tonight! 😳
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Impressive solar flare occurring now from center disk, currently an M8.5-class solar flare and still rising. The solar flare is eruptive and seems likely to produce a CME in Earth's direction.
The radiation caused by the solar flare is also affecting Earth's ionosphere on the…
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Auroras across the Midwest tonight as Earth is impacted by an unexpected geomagnetic storm:
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A partial eclipse of the Moon will occur Friday morning across N. America and will last over six hours from start to finish. Most people will need to get up early Fri morning and look toward the west. A table on how to view is provided, credit to
@SPACEdotcom
#LunarEclipse
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We've got
#NorthernLights
in Missouri!
Holy cow. I was not expecting to see the aurora from Missouri tonight! Im in
#washmo
Let’s go!
#mowx
@TamithaSkov
@Wicky_dubs_WX
@LiveStormChaser
@spacewxwatch
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A moderate M7.1-class solar flare occurred from Active Region 3288 in the southwest at about 13:13Z (9:13am Eastern Time) this morning.
It led to a high frequency radio blackout on Earth's dayside for about an hour, which included much of Europe, western and central Africa, and…
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Imagine multiple people gathering around a large conference table earlier this afternoon to make a collaborative executive decision about this caption
NEWS🚨: Gaping Hole in The Sun Bigger Than 60 Earths Just Blasted Solar Wind Right at Us
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VERIFIED! ✅✅✅ (And could have been farther south still!)
Aurora was reportedly seen in California, Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma, Texas, and North Carolina.
(UPDATED) TONIGHT'S AURORA FORECAST:
Based on current data, we've moved our possible Northern Lights viewing farther south. A moderate, strong, or severe geomagnetic storm is possible.
Aurora viewing is likely in the United States tonight as Earth is impacted by a strong solar…
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Gorgeous
#aurora
this evening out of Quebec due to tonight's solar storm impact.
@spacewxwatch
La Malbaie, Quebec. Along the St. Lawrence just over an hour ago. Fizzled out a little, but keeping my eyes on it!
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Aurora chasers, prepare those cameras!
A lot more certainty than we're used to seeing from the domestic and international space weather community regarding a potentially strong CME to impact Earth late Sunday or early Monday (between 4:00pm Sunday Eastern Time and 1:00am Monday…
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The Sun is going crazy! Here’s another Earth-directed eruption:
Another halo CME from AR 13296, still within Earth strike zone. It was associated with an M4.2 flare. The solar wind data at L1 during 10-12 May will be enjoyable with complexities. It may be hard to understand how these individual eruptions contribute to impact on Earth.
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Today's far-sided halo CME has a speed (3000+ km/s) such that it was classified as extremely rare (ER), perhaps occurring only once or twice every few decades. The NASA simulation for the CME shows that the CME is so strong it induces a weak shockwave in all directions after the…
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FULL HALO CME LAUNCHED BY THE SUN:
Occurring with today's X-class solar flare, a faint, full halo coronal mass ejection was detected by both the SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs, signaling that a portion of the X-class flare associated CME is likely Earth directed even though the…
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WHOA... one of our viewers sent THIS to us from Hafford, SK just northeast of Saskatoon, Canada tonight!
The
#aurora
is strong and dancing!
Many thanks
@briemcauley
!
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Goodness. ANOTHER big solar flare from AR2975, likely going to register a M9.6. HF impacts at the poles and the Western Hemisphere up to 25 MHz expected.
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😵😵
Just a short time ago north of Gaylord Michigan - Northern Lights!🌌❤️❤️
LSC/Freddie Bryant
@spacewxwatch
#northernlights
#Auroraborealis
#auroras
#Aurora
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THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF FEB 27 2023:
This past weekend, space weather forecasters correctly predicted the arrival of two solar coronal mass ejections at Earth which arrived within sixteen hours of each other (compare modeling of this event below with the observed magnetic…
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Still on track for a CME arrival near Earth this evening or tonight!
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STORMS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A prominent coronal hole is about to cross the solar central meridian, and as such, we should see an enhanced and fast solar wind stream arrive at Earth by the Monday timeframe of next week.
Minor geomagnetic storms seem likely early next…
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We have waited a very long time to see it. It is beautiful. Arguably as beautiful as the aurora itself
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Apologies I will not be able to respond to everyone's request for an aurora forecast for their city tonight, but please locate yourself on this map! You want to be north of the red line and in the blue for the best chance at seeing aurora tonight, so long as the geomagnetic storm…
(UPDATED) TONIGHT'S AURORA FORECAST:
Based on current data, we've moved our possible Northern Lights viewing farther south. A moderate, strong, or severe geomagnetic storm is possible.
Aurora viewing is likely in the United States tonight as Earth is impacted by a strong solar…
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SATURDAY EVENING AURORA FORECAST:
A filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk occurred late Wednesday and a partial halo CME was observed in SOHO C2 and C3 coronagraphs. There is good certainty that the solar storm is headed for Earth and may enhance aurora in the Saturday…
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Here's the southward extent of aurora for a Kp=7 storm, which is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Clouds will play a factor from Minnesota all the way into the Northeast (of course!), but the upper Missouri Valley looks to be clearing out, especially the Dakotas!
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Let’s recap this week of insanity:
7 M-class flares Monday through Wednesday
2 halo CMEs which are expected to combine
Minor solar proton event at Earth Monday
X-class flare Wednesday
Strong geomagnetic storm forecast Thursday
Possible Earth-directed CME still to measure
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A few shots of an electric blue aurora in the Nebraska Sandhills north of Ellsworth from the other night 😱 (Credit: Clay Bixby)
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TONIGHT'S NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST:
Aurora viewing may return to the United States this evening as we watch for the potential arrival of the second of two solar storms which were ejected from the Sun's eastern side last week.
Current models show the potential for minor to…
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A fast, large halo coronal mass ejection occurred on the Sun this afternoon and was detected by STEREO A (red) and SOHO (blue) spacecraft. Despite being quite a significant event, it is directed away from the Earth. Still, the eruption was significant enough than energetic…
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INTERPLANETARY SHOCK OBSERVED:
A moderately strong interplanetary shock was just observed at Earth with the magnetic field intensity at the DSCOVR satellite rapidly increasing from 3 nT to 14 nT. A minor geomagnetic storm will now be possible tonight as these conditions develop.
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We're expecting a potentially strong CME arrival sometime between tomorrow evening and Wednesday evening (there is a lot of uncertainty in this event timing-wise). With such large possibilities in arrival time, I don't feel comfortable posting any aurora viewing maps for this…
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Gorgeous array of lights in Ontario last night!
Near Grand Bend, September 2, 9:45-10:30 Southern Ontario.
#ShareYourWeather
#sharecangeo
#northernlights
#auroraborealis
@AuroraNotify
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Disappointing to see
@CBSNews
spread this disinformation, especially after only consulting a likely automatically-generated geomagnetic storm forecast and no space weather expert in the field, per the attached article. NOAA/SWPC is the official forecast provider for this…
The aurora borealis could be visible in more than a dozen states next week and is expected to be visible in states from Alaska to Maryland, weather permitting, between July 12 and 13.
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A Kp=7 Warning has been issued by NOAA/SWPC until 0300Z due to an Earth directed coronal mass ejection. Satellite systems may experience surface charging, increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Aurora may be seen as low as PA, IA and OR.
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LIKELY EARTH-DIRECTED STORM EXPECTED EARLY FRI:
This complex filament eruption took place between 04:00Z and 06:00Z today on the Earth facing disk, leading to a wide partial halo coronal mass ejection that is believed to be somewhat Earth-directed.
The resulting solar storm is…
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The Sun woke up on a Saturday and chose violence
The M3 flare ~0530Z did the trick! 💥
The large filament slowly erupted almost immediately following the flare, mostly directed to the west. A glancing blow could be possible in the next 3-4 days, but it’s not looking like a strong or direct hit despite it being Earth-facing.
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An X1.3 class solar flare from AR2975 which we are magnetically connected to, is in progress, leading to a strong radio blackout.
Expect HF blackouts on the daylit side of the Earth, and a potential radiation event/CME to come. Updates when available.
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Here we go folks, a potential three-night aurora show is on! A minor geomagnetic storm is currently ongoing w/ more CMEs expected to arrive as we head into tonight and the coming days. This may drive us into moderate or strong storm conditions and further enhance aurora.
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Expectation of the solar storm to impact Earth very late Friday night/early Saturday morning, perhaps strongly! A moderate or strong geomagnetic storm and aurora chances in the United States may be possible. We’ll be updating our website with a potential aurora viewing map later…
A filament eruption occurring on the Earth-facing disk this evening has led to the appearance of a partial halo coronal mass ejection in corongraph imagery. The solar storm is likely Earth-directed and will probably impact Earth late Friday or early Saturday. More updates when…
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Absolutely gorgeous Kenneth, thanks for the share! ☄️
Early this morning I witnessed this glorious ☄️ - Comet Nishimura C/2023 P1
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