Jason - macro / offshore / investing
@MacroJason
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I invest in crypto (from 2019) & emerging market real estate (10+ units). I also help HNWI access superior opportunities abroad, focusing on the CEE region.
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Joined March 2012
2 key uncomfortable facts that I think a lot of macro investors fail to acknowledge (and can end up being their blind spots):. 1. Most emerging markets will stay emerging forever due to natural IQ differences. If LatAm, SE Asia and Africa have not produced anything truly great in
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Malls are a good proxy on a society’s current status. Societies which are on its way up / growing (even third world countries) generally have vibrant malls. It probably correlates with middle class spending power and fertility rates (malls disproportionately attract teens and.
A couple opened a sneaker retail store which was successful but had to close because the entire mall basically closed down
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'MAGA communism' is a preview of what politics will increasingly look like as America transitions from being a Protestant European civilization to a LatAm civilization. Domestic socioeconomic impact aside - can you imagine the world using a LatAm currency as global reserve?
‘We didn’t just win progressive areas, we won areas that voted for Trump’ . A good chunk of Trump supporters are no different than commies now. Zero difference between them and lunatic liberals besides being ‘anti woke’. They want massive gov, free shit, & someone to solve
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29% yield on Uzbekistan corporate bonds collateralized by gold? I presented this investment case at @uv_shares London conference last week. Join @lorenz_swen mailing list for free below to receive a free PDF with my Uzbek investment idea alongside other WEIRD alternative
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Typically I outperform when I invest in things and places sensible investors (including locals) tell me not to - but the fundamentals suggest otherwise. When I entered the Polish real estate market 6 years ago - the first thing most developed world investors would say is 'is.
@MacroJason Which country specifically is your favorite EM?.
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I took some profits on $BTC at $100K. I accumulated most of my stash in 2019-2020 and this was the first time I sold. Michael Saylor's base case on BTC is 29% ARR for rest of the decade. If you can outperform 29% ARR with less volatility and downside, then it makes sense to
Boomers bought homes for $100k that are worth $1.5 million now and we can buy a bitcoin for $100k that’ll be worth $1.5 million in a couple decades. I think we’ll look back and realize this was the most obvious play imaginable.
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Another accidental benefit is that Eastern Bloc countries have much higher home ownership rates - the vast majority are free of mortgage debt
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For thousands of years, the dragon was the Chinese symbol. Mao changed it to Panda post WW2 to soften China's global image and it stuck. Smart PR move tbh.
Western European states tried to isolate Russia—instead, they pushed Moscow straight into China’s arms. With consequences that could reshape the continent for decades, as a new @nytimes report lays bare. A Substack on how the West may come to regret what it created.
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One of the great ironies is that it is Soviet Marxism which saved the Eastern Bloc from Cultural Marxism
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We might not like the fiat system - but it’s naive to think that Central Banks are run by idiots and that the system will collapse imminently. Central banks are run by experts in kicking the can down the road. FED, ECB, BOJ, CBR - they have all done a good job at this in the.
Powell has actually done a good job given the circumstances over the last few years.
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America First can be achieved - but at the cost of America no longer being first globally in a lot of fields.
ah, yes, let's push the greatest entrepreneur of our generation out of the us and take leadership in 3 of the most important technology sectors with him
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If you don't understand where the yield is coming from - you are the yield.
A treasury is a pledge not to sell the currency. The yield used to come out of taxes, i.e. productivity, but is increasingly shifting to coming out of more debt. Some crypto tokens offer a yield for the promise not to sell them, i.e., to 'stake' the token. At first, the market.
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#EURUSD were at elevated levels between 2004-2013 and it didn't impact the trade balance much.
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One of the key arguments against a bullish EUR is that it hurts EU exports. But what if it's only USD that's losing value against EUR bigly? . The EU can afford to have $EUR appreciate against USD - so long as EUR does not appreciate too much against other currencies that the EU
@CodyShirk @TheStalwart Is the main argument that a weak dollar helps American industries with exports and are there other points too?.
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RT @sassal0x: There's already been some Ethereum treasury companies announced over the last couple of months (SharpLink Gaming, Thomas Lee'….
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RT @RayDalio: "I promise to not raise your taxes" and "I promise to not cut your benefits" are the two popular political promises that are….
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Frontier and EM investing allows you to do both - buy value whilst at the same time being optimistic about something new.
Is it better to be a hype susceptible bandwagoner who's believed in every next big thing over the last 20 yrs . Or better to be a curmudgeonly deep value investor that's looking for discount to book value trades while shitting on everything new.
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The only countries in Europe where China has a net favorability amongst the general public .
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Level-headed Serbs are monitoring the situation and are increasingly against joining the EU. Of all Eastern European countries - Serbia and Russia are the only ones with the confidence and vision for building their own path outside the EU. Even 'far right' parties in CEE
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