Fear also got very extreme here. Definitely the most extreme level of fear we have gotten since the 2022 bottom. Funding points to the same. What's interesting is that this negative funding is similar to the 26k bottom in 2022 - agreeing/confirming the 2022 fractal.

The volatility was also extremely high, and on par with August 5th. The market on this move down filled two major gaps, took out two double bottoms, and also took out two minor FVGs. Also hit the S2 Yearly + S3 Monthly + VP PoC.

Bitcoin took out all liquidity + got insanely oversold. One of the most oversold levels it has ever hit. Based on my indicators this was a very rare oversold reading and pretty extreme.

The model also discovered 500 zero-day vulnerabilities in open source codebases, including “some that had gone undetected for decades.” @caprioleio @nic_carter @TheBlueMatt @adam3us Are we worried about AI risks on Bitcoin or are they also 10 years away?

Actually, the recent correction is what was needed for the market to keep going. Based on my analysis, the market could keep going like this for several months. In 2026 I believe we could get a 35% correction similar to what we saw in 2020, but not yet.

So based on TA alone, there is plenty of upside. Although it's clear that there are several bulls and that they are the majority, they are nowhere near levels critical for the health of the bull market.

It's unclear by how much can these keep rising, but some of the moves have just started. $EEM $NIKKEI $STOXX & $RUT, have all broken above ATHs that lasted for anywhere between 4 and 35 years!

Having said that, we are not at that point yet. Maybe yesterday and today were just another confirmation that the RoW + especially stuff beyond software still have a lot of juicy. $EEM & $NIKKEI also very strong, with both having confirmed major breakouts.

We could also seem some of the GDP shrinking as entire business models get disrupted. So IMHO markets eventually won't be able to cope with that insane amount of dispersion, variability and volatility. Things will be getting harder and harder to predict.

By capacity issues I mean that right now we don't have enough GPUs, RAM, etc to sustain the trend AI is on. The subsidies can't be sustained either. At some point we are going to get major disruptions.

$DIA and $RSP both with clean breakouts and strong momentum. I don't know for how long can they keep moving like this without tech being along with them. For now there is a lot of potential for many of these to keep going higher, especially as we start hitting capacity issues.

At the same time other sectors are also looking incredibly bullish, with the $XLI, $XLP and $XLV all looking very bullish. They are bullish both on a technical, and a fundamental level given their importance and the support they are receiving from the US government

This is also supported by the breakout in the $XLE which is also incredibly clean and bullish. $XLE trade below and around 45-50 for way too long, so technically this could unleash an incredible move higher.

$Oil is looking very bullish. Maybe my 53$ will not be tested anytime soon. I thin it will be eventually, but not yet. For now the trend and structure are very clean.

$Gold isn't looking bad, but I'd probably wait for a mega drop to 3500 before getting very bullish. Both metals had corrections that indicate a break in the trend, and before that they got insanely overbought. I am not bearish, but a liquidity event would be a gift here.

$Silver seems to have bottomed very nicely too. It tested a very key zone (major FVG) and swept its double bottom at 70$. Not unlikely that it has bottomed. Any move lower would be a gift, but would probably need a catalyst.

Yields haven't broken down yet, but they aren't looking very strong either. There are potential negative scenarios and different combinations of yields and $USD movements, many of which could get ugly regardless of the direction. It will be more about the magnitude and speed.

The $Euro seems to have found support, so even if it's just a short term bounce, here it's looking decent. So for now the USD doesn't seem to be a threat.

The pain felt in software and certain parts of tech isn't felt elsewhere. Everything else is absolutely booming and without any signs of stopping yet. Eventually they will, but for now it looks like liquidity + the AI 'boost' + government support is sufficient.

I also made the analogy that hitting 98k last month was the equivalent of hitting 50k in 2022 before the crash. The fractal so far has been incredibly similar in many ways. Based on it we have either found a local bottom, or we will at 45k