LanceUpper
@LanceupperPI
Followers
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Following
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Media
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Statuses
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I gamble on politics and events. DMs open if you want to discuss markets.
Joined March 2020
🫡 Thanks to the @Kalshi guys for the payday!
Susan Collins is a NO on Kash Patel. “Mr. Patel’s recent political profile undermines his ability to serve in the apolitical role of Director of the FBI. “Therefore, I will vote against his nomination.”
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Imagining how a prediction market for 2000 election winner might have gone. Probably would be a top 5-10 market by volume even through today.
25 years ago today: The US Supreme Court rules in favor of George W Bush, halting the Florida recount and officially making him president-elect of the United States
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Tomorrow's news, today.
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I understand that @polymarket has been redirecting a lot of resources into development of their US app, but the frontend experience has been degrading consistently for a while now on their main site and really needs to be addressed.
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What is the price action for these Google Search markets on @kalshi if the (seemingly early) trends page is gone for >3 days?
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My primary race is listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets now. Haters gonna hate, but apparently they’re not willing to “put their money where their mouth is.”
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Trump's coming announcement of the Fed Chair has been "soon" every time he has been asked about it since March of this year. But for some reason now it was worth 85c in 30 days?
Trump: “We‘ll be announcing somebody probably early next year for the new chairman of the Fed”
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A reminder that @Polymarket is closed tomorrow to American traders in observance of Thanksgiving.
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The December Fed decision on @Polymarket has been extremely liquid and low friction (no fees) to trade for what has been a volatile month in treasuries.
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What would this be trading at now without the hype machine + government shutdown?
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Alas, the shutdown has not ended. A website didn't update. America yearns for guidance ...
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And now Aaron Judge has hit 90c for AL MVP. Making another note here looking towards Friday.
Cade Horton closed at 60 on betting markets at the end of the season for NL Rookie Of The Year. Through October, I had been buying Drake Baldwin on @Kalshi, stopping at 67c. Heavy volume at 90c($40k+) today indicates to me that Baldwin has won the award. Let's see tonight.
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Cade Horton closed at 60 on betting markets at the end of the season for NL Rookie Of The Year. Through October, I had been buying Drake Baldwin on @Kalshi, stopping at 67c. Heavy volume at 90c($40k+) today indicates to me that Baldwin has won the award. Let's see tonight.
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Polymarket x Google We're excited to announce Polymarket odds will be integrated into Google. Coming soon.
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Yeesh, don't let anyone tell you Democrats didn't have a good night.
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This poll got me about 200k shares for Sherill filled in the New Jersey governor market on @Kalshi within an hour of it dropping. All the best guys, looking forward to your work in 2026.
Atlas Poll 2025 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election The New Jersey governor race is close. The scenario below shows Mikie Sherrill (D) leading Jack Ciattarelli (R ) by only 0.9pp – a difference within the margin of error.
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