“Today's polls suck, fake news is rampant. We have a big issue in the US that the people making forecasts… can mislead people and predict wrong things with impunity.
In 2016, no one predicted Trump was going to win…you had a poll that came out right before that predicted a 99%
Kalshi on
@matt_levine
this week. The TLDR: Let the people trade.
Matt: "I really want there to be a deep liquid prediction market"
Katie: "We're on the way there!"
Starship Flight 4 in about 2 weeks.
Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating.
Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework.
A fun new feature on the Kalshi app is that at the bottom of each market, you can see how you stack up against other inferior traders like
@ZubbyBadger
in the same category.
Thank you,
@business
, for having me on yesterday!
We talked explosion of prediction markets and regulatory landscape.
1. Liquidity is up significantly since Jan.
2. A chunk of our users are making several 100k per year.
3. Political BS is slowing the US down.