AtlasIntel
@atlas_intel
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Data intelligence. High-frequency polling. Big data analytics.
Joined February 2020
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AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 US Presidential Cycle with an average error of 2.2 pts.
Finally, here's how the most prolific pollsters fared in the general election.
The best-performing pollster was AtlasIntel!
Second was Trafalgar!
Yeah, they incorrectly had Trump winning a few states, but they were close on the margins, and that's the better metric.
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📊 Atlas Poll || US Midterms 2022
🗳️ Generic Ballot - Likely Voters
🔴 Republican: 49.7% [+3.1]
🔵 Democrat: 46.6%
⚪ Don't know: 3.6%
[11/05 - 11/07; 863 likely voters; ME +/- 3p.p.]
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Atlas Poll | Chile
Presidential Election - 1st Round
Kast 31,0%
Boric 21,4%
Provoste 12,2%
Parisi 10,1%
Sichel 9,2%
Other 6,7%
Blank / null 2,8%
Undecided 6,6%
Encuesta Atlas | Chile
Elección Presidencial - 1a Vuelta
Kast 31,0%
Boric 21,4%
Provoste 12,2%
Parisi 10,1%
Sichel 9,2%
Otro 6,7%
Blanco/nulo 2,8%
Indecisos 6,6%
[01/11 - 02/11, 2266 casos, ME +/- 2p.p.]
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Atlas Poll | France
Presidential Election | 1st Round | Valid Votes
Macron 27.8%
Le Pen 21.3%
Mélenchon 18.6%
Zemmour 12.0%
Pécresse 5.3%
Jadot 5.0%
[04/04 - 04/06, 1946 cases, ME +/- 2p.p.]
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📊 Atlas Poll || Image of Political Leaders
🗳️ US Adults
% positive image:
Barack Obama: 54%
Michelle Obama: 53%
Ron DeSantis: 41%
Joe Biden: 40%
Donald Trump: 38%
[11/05 - 11/07; 1,013 adults; ME +/- 3p.p.]
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AtlasIntel Poll: Georgia Senate Runoffs
Ossoff 51.3 (+4.3)
Perdue 47.0
Warnock 51.1
Loeffler 46.9 (+4.2)
Sample size: 1,680
Dec 05 20 - Jan 01 21
Full report here:
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1st AtlasIntel Public Poll for the 2024 Presidential Election reveals a 1,6pp Trump lead against Biden. In the event of a Biden dropout and his substitution by Michelle Obama, Trump appears 2,6pp behind.
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 US election.
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📊 Atlas Poll || US Midterms 2022
🗳️ Georgia Senate Race - Likely Voters
🔴 Herschel Walker - Republican: 49.0% [+3.2]
🔵 Raphael Warnock - Democrat: 45.8%
⚪ Other candidate / Don't know: 5.3%
[11/05 - 11/07; 791 likely voters; ME +/- 3p.p.]
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📊 Atlas Poll || Presidential Approval
🗳️ US Adults
Approve: 36.2%
Disapprove: 53.3%
Don't know: 10.6%
[11/05 - 11/07; 1,013 adults; ME +/- 3p.p.]
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AtlasIntel polling indicates Joe Biden's impressive South Carolina victory resulted from a last-minute surge among undecideds and a reversal of Bernie Sanders' gains with black voters following
@WhipClyburn
endorsement. All other candidates maintained their levels of support.
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AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 Presidential Race with an average error of 1.94 pts. [preliminary estimate for pollsters reporting at least 5 polls in the last 10 days prior to Nov. 3].
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Hmmm... We didn't disappear. Since 2020, we also nailed the legislative elections in Argentina, the Colombian presidential elections and, this past Sunday, the Chilean constitutional plebiscite (see below how all other pollsters got it wrong).
We'll be back in the US very soon.
I like how that random Atlas Intel pollster just showed up in 2020, went ahead and basically nailed the 2020 General Election, and just disappeared from the face of the earth after that
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Key highlights of the AtlasIntel poll. [2/4]
Biden will once again try to capitalize on the idea that Trump represents a threat to democracy. This may not be as efficient as in 2020. 48.5% of respondents believe judicial proceedings against Trump amount to political persecution.
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Final AtlasIntel Poll on Georgia Senate Runoffs
Ossoff 51.3 (+4.5)
Perdue 46.8
Warnock 50.8 (+3.9)
Loeffler 46.9
Sample size: 687
MOE: +/- 3p.p.
Data collection: 01/02 - 01/04
Full report here:
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AtlasIntel National Poll [08/24-08/30]:
Biden 49 (+3)
Trump 46
Crosstabs and sample profile:
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Barack Obama is currently the most popular political figure in Georgia. Governor Brian Kemp is the least popular. Perdue and Loeffler lag further behind Ossoff and Warnock in popularity than they do in terms of vote intention.
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Due to Álvaro Noboa's last-minute elimination from the race, AtlasIntel ran a separate question with an updated list of candidates. In the scenario without Noboa, the ranking changes as following:
Andrés Arauz 37.7%
Guillermo Lasso 32.0%
Yaku Pérez 9.5%
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If the presidential election in Georgia took place tomorrow, Biden would win by a slightly wider margin. This is mostly driven by voters that did not vote in the actual election but that declare they would now cast a ballot.
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AtlasIntel Poll: Georgia Senate Runoffs
Ossoff 51.3 (+4.3)
Perdue 47.0
Warnock 51.1 (+4.2)
Loeffler 46.9
Sample size: 1,680
Dec 25 20 - Jan 01 21
Full report here:
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📊 Atlas Poll || US Midterms 2022
🗳️ Georgia Senate Race - Adults
🔴 Herschel Walker - Republican: 46.5% [+1.1]
🔵 Raphael Warnock - Democrat: 45.4%
⚪ Won't vote / Other / Don't know: 8.1%
[11/05 - 11/07; 905 adults; ME +/- 3p.p.]
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Key highlights of the AtlasIntel poll. [1/4]
Biden is seen as more trustworthy than Trump on social and environmental matters, but not in the issues that are currently more salient in current U.S. political discourse - especially immigration.
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📊🇪🇸 ATLAS POLL - SPAIN 2023
Tomorrow we will have elections in Spain. According to the public poll released by AtlasIntel on July 17th, the PP has a slight lead of 1.4 pp over the PSOE. Meanwhile, Vox and Sumar maintain 17% and 16% of the voting intentions, respectively.
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AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2024 South African General Election. The average error of the final Atlas poll was 1,28pp compared with more than 2pp for the other pollsters covering the race. Overall, this was a race with an excellent performance for all polls.
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Key highlights of the AtlasIntel poll. [3/4]
In the unlikely event of a Biden dropout, Michelle Obama's selection as candidate would strengthen Democrats’ chances of winning the 2024 election.
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The final Atlas poll released for the 2023 legislative election in Spain anticipated a difference of 1.4pp between the PP and PSOE.
This was the most accurate poll of the Spanish cycle if using this metric.
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Atlas Poll | France
Presidential Election | 2nd Round |
Valid Votes
Le Pen 50.5%
Macron 49.5%
Vote Intention
Le Pen 41.4%
Macron 40.6%
Null/Undecided 18.0%
[04/04 - 04/06, 1946 cases, ME +/- 2p.p.]
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Full AtlasIntel Report on the 2022 Midterms is now avaiable here:
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📊 Atlas Poll || US Midterms 2022
🗳️ Georgia - Image of political leaders
[11/05 - 11/07; 905 adults; ME +/- 3p.p.]
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Key highlights of the AtlasIntel poll. [4/4]
Reinforcing the salience of immigration for this year’s election, Trump’s signature proposal of building the wall on the border with Mexico appears as one the most popular policies in AtlasIntel’s poll, with a net rating of 42pp.
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@dooraven
@Politics_Polls
Thank you! Actually, we had Biden at +4.7% in the national popular vote, so only a 0.2% error in this case.
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AtlasIntel accuracy in the 2022 French Presidential Election [1st Round]
✅ Third lowest average error
✅ Only poll with a perfect estimate for Macron
✅ Only poll to show a statistical tie between Le Pen and Mélenchon
✅ Only poll to show Pécresse at 5%
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AtlasIntel California Poll [02/24-03/02]:
Sanders 34%
Biden 26%
Bloomberg 15%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 3%
Klobuchar 1%
Gabbard 1%
Other 1%
Don't know 4%
[727 respondents; +/- 4% MOE +/- 4p.p.]
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@Marcoapa1975
@UnCafeConJJ
@MiguPar
@cnegobec
@ecuarauz
@lasso
@yakuperezg
@jimmyjairala
@teleradioec
AtlasIntel fue la mejor encuestadora de la elección presidencial de 2020 en los Estados Unidos:
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Atlas Poll | France
Presidential Election | Runoff | Valid Votes
Macron 52.0%
Le Pen 48.0%
[04/12 - 04/14, 2431 cases, ME +/- 2p.p.]
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AtlasIntel Poll: 2021 Ecuador Presidential Election:
Andrés Arauz 34.4%
Guillermo Lasso 26.7%
Álvaro Noboa 11.6%
Yaku Pérez 8.2%
[sample size 3125, +/- 2% MOE, data collection: 23-29 Dec]
Full report here:
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Atlas Intel Michigan Poll: November Scenario
[Registered Voters, 3/7 - 3/9]
Sanders 45.5 [+2.1]
Trump 43.4
[Sample size: 1100, MOE: +/- 3p.p.]
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Thank you
@intracampos
for recognizing our track record and congrats on your great work!
The USA pollsters model is 100% finished. Lets go 23/24 elections!
Congratulations to
@atlas_intel
, for being the first place! Followed by Tipp Insights and Selzer.
I congratulate
@cmmagalhaes9
for helping me to reduce the building time of the model. And all the other volunteers.
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📊 Atlas Poll || US Midterms 2022
🗳️ Generic Ballot - Adults
🔴 Republican: 47.6% [+3.5]
🔵 Democrat: 44.1%
⚪ Don't know: 8.4%
[11/05 - 11/07; 1,013 adults; ME +/- 3p.p.]
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AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the highly volatile 2020 Democratic Primary Cycle, with an average RMSE of aprox. 4.2 points.
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AtlasIntel polling error was lower than that of any forecaster of the 2020 presidential election.
@plural_vote
,
@RealClearNews
,
@FiveThirtyEight
, and
@jhkersting
were the forecasters with the best accuracy.
See the comparison between final estimates and election results:
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📊ATLAS POLL - TURKEY 2023
We have just released our first public poll ahead of the elections in Turkey.
1st round- Current president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (43.2%) and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (42.5%) are technically tied within the margin of error. Oğan and İnce combined have 10.7%.
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AtlasIntel National Poll [10/26-10/28]:
Biden 50.9 (+4.7)
Trump 46.2
Crosstabs and sample profile:
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📊ATLAS EVE POLL - TURKEY 2023
1st round
In our last poll before the elections, Kılıçdaroğlu has risen 2 pp (44.6%) while Erdoğan lost 1.3 pp (44.5%). Both are still technically tied. Oğan has gained 2.3 pp and İnce dropped from 5% to 1% after leaving the race.
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AtlasIntel polling correctly anticipated that Democrats would secure both Georgia Senate seats. Final results came well within the margin of error of our two public polls.
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Barack Obama is currently the most popular political figure in Georgia. Governor Brian Kemp is the least popular. Perdue and Loeffler lag further behind Ossoff and Warnock in popularity than they do in terms of vote intention.
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The Atlas poll was also the most accurate if considering the performance of the right vs. left ideological blocks with chances of forming majority.
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Access the full Atlas poll release here:
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Full AtlasIntel report is available here:
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😎
Encuesta Atlas | Chile
Plebiscito de salida para una nueva constitución
[Votos validos]
Rechazo 58,4%
Apruebo 41,6%
[16/08 - 19/08, 2735 casos, ME +/- 2p.p.]
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Trump didn't overperform or underperform any AtlasIntel poll outside the margin of error.
And now a look at how much Trump overperfomed the 538 averages in swing states:
OH: +7
WI: +8
IA: +7
TX: +5
FL: +6
NC: +3
GA: +3
MN: +2
AZ: -1
A really rough night for polls and a disastrous night for certain pollsters such as Quinnipiac who showed Biden doing so much better.
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Nate Silver confirms: AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 Presidential Election.
Thank you
@NateSilver538
.
Finally, here's how the most prolific pollsters fared in the general election.
The best-performing pollster was AtlasIntel!
Second was Trafalgar!
Yeah, they incorrectly had Trump winning a few states, but they were close on the margins, and that's the better metric.
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📊 ATLAS EVE POLL | SECOND ROUND - TURKEY 2023
Atlas' last poll before the 2nd round for the presidential election in Turkey has current president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leading by a tight margin (48.7%) against opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (48.5%).
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If the presidential election in Georgia took place tomorrow, Biden would win by a slightly wider margin. This is mostly driven by voters that did not vote in the actual election but that declare they would now cast a ballot.
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AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 1st round of the 2021 Chilean Presidential Election.
Comparative table 👇
AtlasIntel fue la mejor encuestadora de la la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Chile, considerando las encuestas públicas difundidas por cada empresa durante los últimos 7 días antes de la veda de publicación (07/11, Ley Nº18.700 de Chile).
Tabla comparativa 👇
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Atlas Poll | France
Presidential Election | Runoff | Valid Votes
Macron 53.3%
Le Pen 46.7%
[04/19 - 04/21, 2219 cases, ME +/- 2p.p.]
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Biden's margin in AtlasIntel's final national-level poll [10/29]:
4.7%
Current Biden lead:
4.4%
AtlasIntel conducted the single most precise national-level poll of the 2020 election cycle.
Breaking: Onondaga Co. (Syracuse) just released its final absentee/affidavit totals, adding...
Biden 21,875 (75%)
Trump 6,585 (23%)
Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.94 million (4.4%).
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Gustavo Petro leads by a wide margin in the 1st round scenario of the latest AtlasIntel poll on the Colombian presidential election.
Encuesta Atlas | Colombia
Elección presidencial | 1a vuelta | Votos validos
Gustavo Petro 41.2%
Fico Gutiérrez 27.5%
Rodolfo Hernández 22.0%
Sergio Fajardo 9.1%
Íngrid Betancourt 0.2%
[17/05 - 20/05, 2781 casos, ME +/- 2p.p.]
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AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2021 legislative primaries in Argentina. 👇
Por segunda vez consecutiva, AtlasIntel fue la mejor encuestadora en elecciones nacionales en Argentina.
En las PASO del último domingo, Atlas antecipó correctamente la victória de la oposición encabezada por Juntos por el Cambio.
Segue 👇
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In the second round of Brazil's municipal elections, AtlasIntel released results for five cities: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Recife, Fortaleza e Porto Alegre. In each of them, our estimates came closer to those of any other opinion polling organization.
#atlasintel
Nas 5 capitais onde Atlas conduziu pesquisas de opinião no 2º Turno - São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Recife, Fortaleza e Porto Alegre - as pesquisas Atlas se aproximaram mais do resultado da votação do que as pesquisas de qualquer outro instituto. Em breve, quadros comparativos.
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@LarrySabato
@realDonaldTrump
@JoeBiden
HUGE NEWS: AtlasIntel conducted the single most precise national poll in the 2020 presidential election.
Biden's margin in AtlasIntel's final national-level poll [10/29]:
4.7%
Current Biden lead:
4.4%
AtlasIntel conducted the single most precise national-level poll of the 2020 election cycle.
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43% of Georgia likely voters believe Joe Biden won the state due to election fraud.
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Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger slightly improved his job approval and public image ratings following the
@washingtonpost
release of a taped conversation with
@realdonaldtrump
.
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AtlasIntel Poll: Ecuador 2021 Presidential Election
Andrés Arauz 36.5%
Guillermo Lasso 26.7%
Yaku Pérez 10.8%
Xavier Hervas 4.5%
[01/15 - 01/21]
Sample size: 3202 cases, +/- 2% MOE
Full report here:
Encuesta Atlas: Elecciones Presidenciales en Ecuador
PRIMERA VUELTA - VOTOS TOTALES
Andrés Arauz 36,5%
Guillermo Lasso 26,7%
Yaku Pérez 10,8%
Xavier Hervas 4,5%
[15.01.21-21.01.21, 3202 casos, +/- 2%]
Registro CNE: Resolución PLE-CNE-4-7-1-2021
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Atlas Intel Michigan Poll: November Scenario
[Registered Voters, 3/7 - 3/9]
Biden 44.1
Trump 45.5 [+1.4]
[Sample size: 1100, MOE: +/- 3p.p.]
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@viccommie
@CentralEleicoes
De fato, Atlas teve a melhor pesquisa de primeiro turno no Chile e a segunda melhor pesquisa de primeiro turno na França. Sobre a Colômbia, segue aqui um quadro comparativo com o nosso desempenho em comparação com outros institutos:
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📊ATLAS POLL - SOUTH AFRICA
37% of South Africans intend to vote for the ANC in the country's general elections, according to the latest AtlasIntel poll with 2,308 voters. This suggests the party will lose the majority it has held in the National Assembly since 1994.
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Atlas Poll: Chile Presidential Election - 1st Round
Kast 27.2%
Boric 21.9%
Sichel 11.7%
Parisi 11.4%
Provoste 9.2%
[11/05 - 11/06, 1197 respondents, ME +/- 3p.p.]
Encuesta Atlas | Chile
Elección Presidencial - 1a Vuelta
Kast 27,2%
Boric 21,9%
Sichel 11,7%
Parisi 11,4%
Provoste 9,2%
Otro 9,0%
Blanco/nulo 3,1%
Indecisos 6,6%
[05/11 - 06/11, 1197 casos, ME +/- 3p.p.]
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You can find the full report of the AtlasIntel poll at the end of the the thread below. Given the historic nature of the race, we will be sharing the raw data with the
@RoperCenter
, thereby making it widely available to researchers and academics from all over the world.
📊ATLAS POLL - SOUTH AFRICA
37% of South Africans intend to vote for the ANC in the country's general elections, according to the latest AtlasIntel poll with 2,308 voters. This suggests the party will lose the majority it has held in the National Assembly since 1994.
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37% of Georgia likely voters believe election fraud will affect the Senate runoff elections.
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AtlasIntel will release the first public poll on the Chile presidential election today at 3pm CLST.
AtlasIntel publicará la primera encuesta sobre las elecciones presidenciales de Chile hoy a las 15:00 CLST.
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AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2022 Constitutional Plebiscite in Chile.
Just how well did polls perform? 👇
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Another excellent piece by
@andrewrosati
.
Another day, another poll stirring hopes of Lula winning outright on Sunday. But
@atlas_intel
says his support may have peaked as some backers of third- and fourth-placed candidates worry about Lula winning in the first round.
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68% of Georgia likely voters support the introduction of ID verification for absentee ballots.
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One of the leading factors explaining Trump's poor performance among seniors is the on-going coronavirus crisis. The handling of the crisis gets particularly low marks from voters aged 65+ and has remained virtually unchanged since August.
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AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the California Democratic Primary.
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In Romania, alongside with the European Parliament Elections, voting is underway today for local mayoral races.
Download our full report with the key estimates here:
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Based on the latest vote count data upon certification of results in most states, AtlasIntel remains the most accurate pollster of the 2020 presidential race with an average error of 2.01%.
@Politics_Polls
@FiveThirtyEight
@RealClearNews
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Latest Atlas polling on the 2022 Brazilian presidential election reveals a major boost for Bolsonaro and Lula.
Pesquisa Atlas revela aumento da intenção de voto para Jair Bolsonaro e Lula no cenário de primeiro turno para a eleição de 2022. Bolsonaro aparece com 37,0%, seguido por Lula com 33,2%. Em relação a pesquisa Atlas de março, Bolsonaro subiu 4,3 pontos e Lula 5,6 pontos.
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In District 6, incumbent mayor Ciprian Ciucu is poised to achieve the single best electoral result in the Bucharest races, with an advantage of almost 40pp over his main rival Mihaela Ștefan.
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AtlasIntel is now a data contributor to the Roper Center for Public Opinion at
@Cornell
. We are excited to collaborate with
@RoperCenter
to strengthen transparency on opinion polls and share some of our experience in the latest presidential cycle.
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AtlasIntel expands European coverage for political polling: today, we released our estimates for the most important mayoral races taking place in Romania this upcoming Sunday, starting with Bucharest.
Results in the thread below 👇
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43% of Georgia likely voters believe Joe Biden won the state due to election fraud.
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@FelipeF51574562
@PesqBR2022
De fato os resultados são idênticos quando comparadas as perguntas comparáveis. Na pesquisa de intenção de voto, Atlas coloca o partido ao lado do nome do candidato; já o Datafolha não…
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AtlasIntel conducted the only poll on the French presidential election that revealed a difference of less than 3 percentage points between Le Pen and Mélenchon. That projection appears to have been correct.
Atlas Poll | France
Presidential Election | 1st Round | Valid Votes
Macron 27.8%
Le Pen 21.3%
Mélenchon 18.6%
Zemmour 12.0%
Pécresse 5.3%
Jadot 5.0%
[04/04 - 04/06, 1946 cases, ME +/- 2p.p.]
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El Confidencial ran a piece on AtlasIntel's work in the Spanish general elections. Thank you
@elconfidencial
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A majority of Brazilians [54%] support impeaching president Jair Bolsonaro, according to the AtlasIntel poll just released today. Support for impeaching Bolsonaro is highly correlated with gender (higher among women), education (higher college-educated), and religiosity.
Pesquisa Atlas: Impeachment do Presidente Jair Bolsonaro
A Favor 53,6%
Contra 41,5%
NS/NR 4,9%
20.01.21-24.01.21
3.073 respondentes, ME +/- 2p.p.
Confira aqui o relatório:
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@vilarinho_luan
@CentralEleicoes
Quer entender mais sobre a nossa metodologia? Seguem aqui algumas explicações:
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AtlasIntel Michigan Poll
[Likely Democratic Primary Voters, 3/7 - 3/9]
Biden 48
Sanders 40
Bloomberg 3
Gabbard 2
Warren 1
Other 1
Don't know 5
[Sample size: 528; MOE: +/-4 p.p.]
Full report here:
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AtlasIntel has an excellent performance in the 1st round of this election, having correctly anticipated a statistical tie between Le Pen and Mélenchon, a collapse for Valérie Pécresse, and a better than expected score for Macron vs. Le Pen.
AtlasIntel accuracy in the 2022 French Presidential Election [1st Round]
✅ Third lowest average error
✅ Only poll with a perfect estimate for Macron
✅ Only poll to show a statistical tie between Le Pen and Mélenchon
✅ Only poll to show Pécresse at 5%
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Vote Intention for Mayor of Bucharest
🔵 Nicușor Dan 45,2%
🔴 Gabriela Firea 21,7%
⚫ Popescu Piedone 15,4%
🟨 Sebastian Burduja 7,8%
🟡 Mihai Enache 5,7%
🟣 Diana Șoșoacă 3,4%
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Still,
@realDonaldTrump
's approval rating is virtually unchanged in Georgia following the
@washingtonpost
tape.
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Full report of the final AtlasIntel poll on the Georgia Senate Runoff here:
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