Kevin Kohler
@KevinKohlerFM
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Tech policy - risk management - foresight / @longtermgov - previously @wef @CSS_ETHZurich / all views my own
Geneva, Switzerland
Joined October 2014
Chat, is this a good idea? Would you prefer @sama or GPT-6/7 as OpenAI CEO?
“Shame on me if OpenAI is not the first big company run by an AI CEO.” @sama In conversation with @tylercowen, recorded live at Progress Conference 2025:
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In his reflections on the Progress Conference, @KevinKohlerFM comes to a similar desire. I think there's a market here.
I'm proposing to the team that for The Curve next year, we relax the rule that says I'm only allowed to be in one place at a time.
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Guest post from Christina looking at how IAEA verification tools work at an individual level. In the AI discussion chip-level verification tools are most prominent but worth considering multiple info streams incl. OSINT
How might AI governance draw inspiration from the IAEA's nuclear verification regime? Guest author Christina Krawec analyzed 24 of the IAEA's tools and highlights three promising examples for AI. Link in comments 👇
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It's only abundance if it's from the Abondance region in France. Otherwise it's just a sparkly supply surplus.
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In summary ✅ A welcome, forward-looking first step from the UN 🔄 But future reports should go beyond perception and into deeper analysis Commentary by me & @MaximeStauffer 👉 https://t.co/zKG5snvPDq Risk Report:
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Ideas for future reports · Time its release with key UN events · Combine perception surveys with quantitative risk assessments by experts · Compare national assessments of global risks · Analyze not just risks, but global critical systems they could disrupt (eg SWIFT,Suez,ICANN)
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Risk perception has limits Two common biases: · Centering bias: Responses cluster around the middle of the scale. · Availability bias: Recent events are rated as higher risk. The survey data was collected in 2024. Now smth like “economic fragmentation” might rank higher.
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What the report found 1,000+ UN stakeholders rated the likelihood & impact of 28 global risks (scale 1–7). · Top perceived risk: “Climate Change Inaction” · A key gap: “Mis- and disinformation” ranked #3 in importance, but preparedness was seen as low.
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The UN has published its first Global Risk Report 🇺🇳 A quick thread 🧵on: · What the report found · Why risk perception ≠ risk assessment · What future editions could add
Amid converging global crises, the world remains dangerously unprepared for shared risks. But we are not powerless. The first-ever @UN Global Risk Report sends a clear message: our future depends on global cooperation to address these threats. https://t.co/7FU2eWSScN
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What lessons can the new UN AI Panel learn from the International AI Safety Report? 📚 Join us on July 9th in Geneva with Prof. @Yoshua_Bengio (remote), Daniel Privitera & Hannah Merchant for insights on building effective scientific panels. Registration link below 👇
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🌐 Does AI need it's own "CERN"? 🌐 Join us & @TheGCSP this Thursday, July 10th, on the sidelines of ITU's @AIforGood Summit, for a Geneva Security Debate on the subject. Registration link below 👇
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I highly recommend applying to the @rootsofprogress fellowship by June 1!✍️🌎🚀It's an inspiring program that builds the progress community & offers opportunities to engage with lots of cool people.
📢 Applications are now OPEN for the 2025 Roots of Progress Blog-Building Intensive! Launch a blog and improve your progress-focused writing with expert guidance and an amazing community progress builders, writers and intellectuals.
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Link to full report with Recommendations for the Independent International Scientific Panel on AI and the Global Dialogue on AI Governance 🇺🇳🤖 https://t.co/4vmEqBEeAO A big thanks to all the experts that took the time for conversations, interviews & workshops 🙏
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The UN is creating a scientific panel to assess the global risks, opportunities and impacts of AI. How can we design this in a way that is fast, scientific, and relevant to policymakers? Happy to share our new report on this 👇 In September 2024 the UN General Assembly decided
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Excited to share our new interim report, outlining potential design options for the #UN's Independent International Scientific Panel on AI and Global Dialogue on AI Governance, both mandated by the #GlobalDigitalCompact in Sept 2024 🧵 https://t.co/fheSJfQ0La
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The Progress Conference was fantastic – four short reflections 👇 1. A shared belief in progress The progress movement has a broad tent. There is no party line. Still, the following is what I have perceived as common beliefs across most participants: · technological progress
Announcing Progress Conference 2024: Toward Abundant Futures Hosted by @rootsofprogress together with @foresightinst @HumanProgress @TheIHS @IFP @WorksInProgMag Keynotes from @patrickc @tylercowen @jasoncrawford @sapinker Berkeley, Oct 18–19
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@ESYudkowsky & @leopoldasch both believe powerful AI is close & has serious risks. However one wants to stop AI, the other calls for an arms race. The crux seems to be that one thinks control over such AI is near-impossible, whereas the other is more bullish on superalignment
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