BSP’s cut today has led to lower short term yields but long term yields (BVAL) - which is where a lot of loans are benchmarked - actually inched up. So while policy rate is moving to abnormal territory again, 10 year yields are still #normalforlonger

Big sweet spots are perfect for tennis 🎾rackets and golf clubs 🏌️‍♂️— but when it comes to monetary policy rate guidance, I prefer my sweet spot small and precise 😉

Will cancelling DPWH 'ghost projects' necessarily drag GDP? If allegations are true, funds for imported jets/luxuries are a GDP wash (stolen funds leak out as (-M). Realigning the budget to employ domestic resources could have a multiplier effect and may even boost growth. #CIGXM

#RiskManagementCut sound bite outweighs new SEP guidance, Dots Plot

Is a country's economic growth tied to low policy rates? This chart shows Indo's capital spending is up 29% from 2019, far outpacing the region's gains, despite elevated rates. Interesting data point for the debate on capex, growth response to rates. #NormalForLonger 🇮🇩🇵🇭

Headline PH CPI rises 0.6% mom fastest since July 2024, core accelerates from 2.3% to 2.7% despite headline infl looking benign. This confirms we have seen the bottom for headline & the need to be watchful of expectations getting de-anchored in 2026 onwards.

Correct. Lower rates won’t necessarily lower your amortizations. Lower rates tend to push property prices higher, making them less affordable for a greater portion of the population. So please #becarefulwhatyouwishfor. Its a popular misconception that many need to unlearn.

PH 1Q2025 real GDP growth of +5.4% disappointed. Excess capacity in construction due to pivots away from POGO & onsite work remain biggest drags. Surge in services imports also pared growth on NX side. Bright side is HFCE growth ramped up to 5.3%, likely to benefit further in 2Q

Cebu Pacific isn't waiting for lower interest rates to seize opportunities, strategically securing future fleet capacity now. @CebuPacificAir #BusinessStrategy #FleetModernization

If you’re planning to head to any beach resort in Zambales today (March 15) be prepared for a longer trip as the town of Castillejos (town after Subic) has closed the national highway for some local event.

not *necessarily good for bonds prices but will likely remain an attractive funding option

There is strong historical evidence that when the price of rice soars, household spending slows sharply. 2008 was best example. HFCE slowed to <4% growth even if RRP was lower than today's 5.75%. This means rice deflation is more important to consumers than lower RRP rate.

Feb headline PH infl falls sharply to 2.1% led by YoY rice deflation of 4.9%. This should free up funds for spending on other food and discretionary items. This could be a great story for retail & consumer counters of PCOMP. May not be good for bonds. RRR cut timing was ideal

If we vote for the wrong folks this May and in 2028 Offshore Gaming parties could be invited again, PH re-inclusion in 'gray list' won't be improbable.

True that "the real policy rate remains historically tight"? Checking monthly data from 1986 to Jan 2025 shows that the latest real policy rate (Jan 2025) is 177th tightest out of the 469 months covered. Record low RRR also suggests less tightness. https://t.co/biFdEO3pd5

#PHGDP 4Q2024 PHL real GDP grew 5.2% YoY still on agri fall. Elevated rice prices likely main culprit for disappointing FY2024 growth at 5.6% as HFCE reverts to sub-5% print again. This could lead BSP-MB to cut on their 13 Feb meeting if USD doesn’t soar. Still, weaker PHP likely

We still can't rule out a skip, considering the "red wave" surprise & a breach of crucial technical support on PHPUSD & its potential knock on effect on headline inflation. #normalforlonger

From bright to dim; from dim to dimmer? #NormalForLonger

Real GDCF (Investment) acceleration to 13.1% & HFCE rebound supported by KB nominal loan growth accelerating to nearly 11% even before aug 15 “look away” BSP rate cut. August cut unlikely the reason for improvement based on “long and variable lags” narrative. #normalforlonger

3Q2024 YoY real GDP growth (+5.2% vs +5.7% median) surprises on the downside. 9M2024 growth has slowed to 5.8% from 6.0% in 1H #PHGDP Agri continued to be a drag to growth after slowing the economy’s momentum in 2Q2024. HFCE recovers on slower infl.