Looks like #NormalForLonger isn't as dire as some had put it. Rate normalization doesn't seem harmful where fundamental econ structure is strong. Policy hikes may be contractionary within a certain #RelevantRange. Starting @ 0.5% vs @ 5.0%, impact of 300bps doesn't seem =

@GregCrennan #NormalForLonger

When bright opportunities (specially in areas outside metro manila) far outweigh the cost of capital, failure to expand in a timely manner can be pretty costly. di ba sir? 😊#NormalForLonger

@realAliciaCryst It's really just #NormalForLonger which maybe why market is so chill. More worrisome to me is how we gonna get the balance sheet "back down" to $1 Trillion like Ben promised Ron Paul https://t.co/hwgIouECxo

US Fed Funds futures now (Oct28) sees 3.75% FFR by end 2025 from a low of 3.0% implied rate in mid-Sept (see chart). Wont be surprised if it climbs to 4% soon. Hard to imagine RRP rate falling to 4.5% if US stops cutting at 3.75% or higher. #RealityNotTheory #NormalForLonger

Lower & on-target PHL infl prints in the nxt 12 months wont guarantee a return to the abnormally low rates of 2008 to 2021. Structural reforms #NormalForLonger RRP rates enough to bring us back to higher growth & employment path. #creativedestruction #Innovateordie

Is a country's economic growth tied to low policy rates? This chart shows Indo's capital spending is up 29% from 2019, far outpacing the region's gains, despite elevated rates. Interesting data point for the debate on capex, growth response to rates. #NormalForLonger 🇮🇩🇵🇭

BSP’s cut today has led to lower short term yields but long term yields (BVAL) - which is where a lot of loans are benchmarked - actually inched up. So while policy rate is moving to abnormal territory again, 10 year yields are still #normalforlonger

Should sustained improvements in PH data continue our call of a 3q2024 easing (not a premature cut like some have been advocating for in 1Q) in this PIDS event can materialize & may happen even if FOMC doesn’t cut in July. #NormalForLonger

Real GDCF (Investment) acceleration to 13.1% & HFCE rebound supported by KB nominal loan growth accelerating to nearly 11% even before aug 15 “look away” BSP rate cut. August cut unlikely the reason for improvement based on “long and variable lags” narrative. #normalforlonger

From bright to dim; from dim to dimmer? #NormalForLonger

@mikcarr8690 That’s part of what ‘normal’ means in my framework: back to Pre-2008 #normalforlonger interest rates vs the abnormally ultra low rates/massive QEs from 2008 to 2022. If tariffs reignite inflation in 2025 then expect hikes everywhere to follow.

@jetmojica Sounds realistic & viable to me. Inflation is the enemy that policy normalization seems to have substantially addressed. I guess Yardeni was right to ask: "Why mess with success?" #NormalForLonger

Red wave + all-time high DJIA + ~4.0% unemp & AHE + more FOMC rate cuts likely means #normalforlonger 😊

For the record, while we agree with BSP's current preference not to ease prematurely, our view on RRP can be verified in this PIDS forum. BSP's #Normalforlonger cuts may be contingent on the FOMC's policy stance in 2H2024.

Companies that postpone expansion until interest rates fall by 50 to 75 basis points will likely miss out on golden opportunities. Fortunately, Cebu Pacific isn't going to be one of them. #NormalForLonger

Here’s 1 among a number of factors that could put a 5.00% floor on the BSP RRP terminal rate. Average RRP rate from abnormal years 2008-2019 was < 4%. 5% is #normalforlonger

We still can't rule out a skip, considering the "red wave" surprise & a breach of crucial technical support on PHPUSD & its potential knock on effect on headline inflation. #normalforlonger

Getting full year PH inflation on target & infl expectations well anchored likely helped boost loan & GDP growth rates. 1H2024 & Household spending would have been a lot stronger if not for El Niño & massive giffen good (rice) inflation. #NormalForLonger