For 25 yrs, trade deficits funded debt-fueled consumption, not business investment, addicting voters to government spending without higher taxes (or inflation). If tariffs reduce trade deficits, it could raise interest rates, worsening this imbalance.

Inker and Pease argue that 80% of the S&P’s outperformance relative to advanced economies since 2010 arose from two sources that are unlikely to repeat: dollar strengthening and near all-time high valuation ratios, which “always beggar future returns.”.

If US developers’ plans are realized, they will bring online a record 64 GW of new power in 2025, with solar accounting for 50%. That would surpass the previous record of 58 GW of new energy brought online in 2002, of which 98% was fueled by natural gas.

Chinese regulators have mobilized to dissuade China’s tech companies from acquiring Nvidia’s H20 chip. As a result, domestic tech groups are holding off or downsizing their H20 orders.

Examining official data and company financials, Matt Klein estimates “U.S. GDP would be about 0.4% higher than currently reported…if the [capex] of Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle were fully incorporated into the official data.”.

An analysis of data from the American Time Use Survey documents a 43% reduction in the percentage of Americans who read for pleasure on an average day over a 20-year period, from 28% in 2003 to 16% in 2023.

An analysis of census data finds residents of the mean “prosperous” (top-quintile) county live 5.3 years longer than those in the mean “distressed” (bottom-quintile) one, with the discrepancy between the top and bottom percentiles widening to 8 years.

On a rolling one-year basis, foreign inflows into American assets hit a record high in June, driven by equity inflows, which offset directionally weaker foreign demand for Treasury notes and bonds.

Technological rivalry raises obsolescence risk, reducing the time over which adjustment costs can be recovered and thus reducing firm growth in response to innovation, reconciling an increase in the rate of innovation with a slowdown in aggregate TFP.

Jason Thomas argues that high rates driven by the AI buildout and US fiscal policy are “crowding out interest-sensitive sectors like for-sale housing.”.

New voters are breaking Republican. In 2018, 34% of new voter registrations were Democrats and 20% GOP. By 2024, the GOP’s share of new voters rose 9pp relative to 2018 and the Democrats share declined 8pp, giving the GOP an edge among new registrants.

Electricity supplies nearly 30% of China’s energy use today and is growing at an annual rate of 6%. In the US, electricity accounts for 22% of energy use and is growing at an annual rate of 0.6%.

China’s youth unemployment (16–24) rose to 17.8% in July. 12.2mm college students will graduate this summer and enter the labor force.

Cocaine is making a comeback, driven by European demand which has overtaken the US as the world’s largest market. In Columbia, the world’s largest producer, cocaine production rose 53% btw 2022 and 2023.

Alberta Central, a Canadian bank, estimates Canada's unemployment rate for 16–24 year olds is 15%. The overall unemployment rate according to Statistics Canada is 6.9%.

Brad DeLong suggests that AI investment is largely defensive in nature, “with fear of AI‑driven disruption defining the moment,” and is skeptical regarding its prospects. ”What, concretely, are the ‘new-and-improved’ services that justify the AI boom?”.

Torsten Slok attributes the steepening of the US yield curve to accelerating Treasury issuance, an expectation of politically motivated cuts in the short rate, and a rise in expected inflation.

Since the release of ChatGPT in November of 2022, earnings per share of the MAG 7 have risen 125% (through 8/18), while earnings per share of the other 493 companies comprising the S&P 500 have risen just 4%.

As AI-related investment has risen since 2023, residential and nonresidential investment have declined or flatlined. This may suggest that a relatively rate-insensitive AI buildout is crowding out more interest-sensitive forms of investment.

The Trump administration is considering taking a 10% stake via converting ~$10.9B in grants committed under the US Chips and Science Act into an equity stake. The USG would be the company’s largest shareholder.

The bulk of the decline in the gender gap among full-time college educated workers born btw the 1931 and 1984 birth cohorts is within occupation. Changes in fields of study contribute on net only ~5.5pp out of a more than 40pp drop.