Jason Corley
@JasonCorley78
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Co-Founder, lead pollster, and election forecaster at @QuantusInsights / https://t.co/v1BNgiPJZd –– Louisiana native
Joined November 2024
It’s called reality. Verifiable trends trump imperfect polling. Mr. Bonier you hardly have a leg to stand on when it comes to misses and you know more about misses and than most.
Releasing a poll just days before the election that missed the final win margin by 10 pts, then pivoting to claims of how predictable the landslide win was is one heck of a move.
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A “random sample of 100,000” doesn’t mean we interviewed 100,000 people — it means we drew a universe of 100,000 registered voters from the full active New Jersey voter file as our sampling frame. The 100k number is methodologically sound and proportionate to the size of New
It’s not some big mystery, turnout was huge & your LV model likely indexed too heavily to R-friendly 2021 and/or 2024 electorates. In polling you make assumptions. Sometimes they’re wrong. It happens! But a “a random sample of 100,000 NJ voters” is absolutely killing me.
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It seems every method missed unless you forced a 2017 electorate even if your random sample from New Jersey voter file universe never suggested there would be a 2017 electorate. In any case, it's something to take in stride and learn from. "The Brazil-based company uses a
Josh Pasek, a University of Michigan professor, said that New Jersey turned up as a particularly hard state to survey when the pollsters’ professional association, known as AAPOR, examined how the 2024 polls of the presidential election performed. He said New Jersey had the
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Important read. People celebrating last night’s results will start assigning personal meaning to them when in reality, it has little to do with them or anyone else. What we’re seeing isn’t some grand realignment or repudiation. It’s oscillation and schizophrenic partisan behavior
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: Virginia & New Jersey Off-Year Election Patterns (2017–2025) Tonight’s results aren’t shocking. In fact, they fit a measurable pattern going back nearly a decade. Off-year elections in VA and NJ consistently swing against the party in the White
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Important read. People celebrating last night’s results will start assigning personal meaning to them when in reality, it has little to do with them or anyone else. What we’re seeing isn’t some grand realignment or repudiation. It’s oscillation and schizophrenic partisan behavior
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: Virginia & New Jersey Off-Year Election Patterns (2017–2025) Tonight’s results aren’t shocking. In fact, they fit a measurable pattern going back nearly a decade. Off-year elections in VA and NJ consistently swing against the party in the White
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I did not have Zogby and YouGov as the heroes of last night's election. Good on them. They crushed the margins.
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We will be going live again tonight to cover the election returns and results. We will drop the link later this evening.
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Just waited until near midnight before the election. Remarkable but not surprising.
The Washington Post Editorial Board agrees that decency is on the ballot tomorrow in Virginia.
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Virginia has made a turn since our last poll. Here are the results from today's snap poll. Thank you to our partners @TeamNuminar for the support and quick turnaround.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: Virginia Snap Poll 2025 | N=1201 LVs | MoE ±2.7% Governor (n=1201) 🔵 Abigail Spanberger: 52.6% 🔴 Winsome Earle-Sears: 43.9% ⬛️ Undecided: 2.6% ⬜️ Other: 0.9% ––––––––––––––––––– LT Governor (n=1069) 🔵 Ghazala Hashmi: 51.7% 🔴 John Reid: 43.7% ⬛️
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We're conducting a late election eve poll for Virginia. It seems that Jay Jones is just the type of candidate to get the Democrat base stirred and ready to vote. Unbelievable sample.
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FINAL QUANTUS INSIGHTS MODEL: Virginia 2025 Our Monte Carlo projection, based on 15 public polls adjusted for historical bias (D+ 1.6) and a ±2 pt margin of error: 🔵 Spanberger (D) 53.6% 🔴 Earle-Sears (R) 45.4% ⚪ Other 1% Modeled margin: D+8.3 90% range: D+5 to D+11.6
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FINAL QUANTUS INSIGHTS FORECAST: New Jersey 2025 Our bias-and-miss-adjusted model shows another tight governor's race in New Jersey between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli. 🔵 Sherrill (D) 50.4 % 🔴 Ciattarelli (R) 48.6 % ⚪ Other 1 % Modeled margin: D+1.8 90 % range:
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My favorite was when the totally unbiased electioneers called it brave.
As dumb as this poll was, it wasn’t nearly as dumb as the people who bought into it. How embarrassing to get conned by something so stupid.
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2025 New Jersey Governor Poll Among Independents 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 55% 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 44% Quantus Insights: 10/26 - 10/27
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With party loyalty/cross over mapped and independents R+10, the early-vote cushion narrows fast once Election Day ballots arrive: •ED R+3 → D +3.6 statewide •ED R+4 → D +2.9 statewide •ED R+5 → D +2.2 statewide This is a mathematical demonstration, not a hard set model we
The New Jersey Early Voting file is in for 11/01. Democrats begin putting the EV pressure on Republicans down the stretch and now have a five-figure early in-person turnout lead. 🔴Republican In Person - 195,298 🔵Democratic In Person - 207,509 🟡All Others In Person - 108,129
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Someone is going to be right. We showed the race close by the end of September along with Emerson. Here’s the breakdown of the pollsters who have the race close and those who don’t.
Our last two polls in New Jersey -10/26 - 10/27: Sherrill +3.3 -9/29 - 9/30: Sherrill +2.3 RCP Average: Sherrill +3.3 •Atlas Intel: Sherrill +1 •Emerson: Sherrill +2 •Suffolk: Sherrill +4 •Quantus: Sherrill +3 •co/efficient: Sherrill +1 •Trafalgar/InsiderAdv: Sherrill +1
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2025 New Jersey Governor Poll 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 49% 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 46% Who do you think most of your neighbors, friends, or co-workers will vote for? 🔴 Jack Ciatteralli: 53% 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 47% @QuantusInsights | 10/26-27 | 1,380 LV
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There’s tight race or at least a tighter than some other polling shows in the state of New Jersey. However, we show Sherrill out in front of Ciattarelli in our final poll of the election.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: New Jersey Governor 2025 | Sherrill +3 Over Ciattarelli | N=1,380 LVs | MoE ±2.6% Governor (with leaners) 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 49.2% 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 45.9% ⬜️ Other: 2.6% ⬛️ Undecided: 2.4% ––––––––––––––––––– Leaners Only 🔵 Sherrill: 31% 🔴
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