Chaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombe
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Executive Director @StateNavigate. State legislative elections forecaster & pollster. @virginia_tech alumni. Opinions are my own. [email protected]
26 | Richmond, VA
Joined May 2017
.@StateNavigate is going to dominate Election Night in VA with our upcoming results & modeling page by Development Director @jhkersting. If you don't have us on your screen, I guarantee you, you WILL get left behind. This is a WIP, and we'll let people toy with it before E-Day.
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Reminder that our goal in the HoD this year is not another 100/100, it's 97/100; guv years are very unpredictable in turnout
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Blacksburg swung 5% rightward last year, powering HD-41's rightward swing from 2020-2024 presidential level. If youngest Gen Z are Gen X part 2 (possible), Obenshain lives If they're just anti-incumbent voters, he's thoroughly cooked like a Thanksgiving turkey
@InhaeGL @ChazNuttycombe Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s maga youth
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First day of satellite voting was a Monday last year First saturday last year was 870
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Holy shit. Montgomery Countywide 1st day of satellite voting last year: 899 This year in Blacksburg alone: 885 98.4% of 1st day of satellite voting 2024.
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The only voter in VA who will care about the redistricting session are election nerds and terminally online partisans. I don't see it changing anything on Election Day.
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Actually IIRC this map isn't constitutional? VRA S2 aside but Eastern Shore is required to connect to the Beach I think
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In what is perhaps the most cutthroat move I've seen Virginia Democrats do in the General Assembly over the last decade, the General Assembly convenes tomorrow to try and begin the process of implementing a DEM gerrymander. Here's your preview from me: https://t.co/Ent36NtQ3h
statenavigate.org
Nazi affinities, jokes about killing colleagues, speeding, and wishing for the death of police officers: just another month in Virginia politics.
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Would be astonished if they did this.
It’s unlikely that Virginia Democrats would go this far but it’s definitely possible to draw a pretty safe 10–1 map as well.
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Good chance this could also be what sinks Jay Jones if the freshmen DEMs were just not campaigning much this year.
Also as a friend of mine pointed out, these areas saw LARGE shifts to third parties compared to rest of state. I think this is a 5-o-clock alarm for Spanberger and it's too late for them to fix it. Not that it hurts her chances of winning, just hurts her overall margin by ~1%
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Data is a right, not a privilege. @StateNavigate begins 3 polls tomorrow at noon: VA Statewide VA HD-73 (Earley) VA HD-64 (Milde) Depending what $ we have left after those we may also do HD-30. Donate to our polling fund before it's too late! https://t.co/2GKIfNmVTp
statenavigate.org
State Navigate's Polling Fund Public polling for state-level elections is scarce and often of low quality and high cost. State Navigate has built a team trained in political and data science to...
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I'm referencing polls at midnight that 1% of this site will remember
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Go Hokies baby
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I don't know jack about Jersey though, no pun intended. Always would have rather been Sherrill here though.
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Would be hilarious if this just turns out to be a Quinnipiac 17 moment or something honestly with all the hype Jersey's getting.
New - Governor Poll - New Jersey 🔵 Sherrill 52% 🔴 Ciattarelii 40% GQR #B - LV - 10/20
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How the hell do you get a job working for the Governor of Virginia and you put out what I believe to be probably the most inaccurate map of Virginia I have ever laid eyes upon?
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- All of the Peninsula counties and cities merged together: Hampton, Newport News, Williamsburg, York, Poquoson - Same on Eastern Shore - Dinwiddie and Chesterfield merged - Lynchburg 20th century boundaries - Literally not what Arlington looks like on a map, looks like MS paint
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OK has anyone commented how awful this map is yet? List of screw-ups - No Harrisonburg, Radford, Staunton, Danville, Martinsville, Norton, Galax, Bristol, Emporia, Roanoke, Fredericksburg, Manassas & Park, Charlottesville, Petersburg, Hopewell, Salem, Covington, Lexington 🧵
Voters were clear that partisan gerrymandering was not the Virginia Way. Unfortunately, Democrats in the General Assembly have decided they will blatantly disregard 2/3 of Virginians and move forward with a plan to redraw maps they believe will benefit them… More big government,
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Deleted a tweet on whether members can raise $ during session, apparently they can during a special
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