Chaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombe
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Director of @CNalysis .com. Nonpartisan state legislative elections expert and forecaster of six years. Opinions my own. Go Hokies! Contact: charles @cnalysis .com
Blacksburg, VA
Joined May 2017
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NEW from me at
@CNalysis
, my 10,700+ word Independent Study final paper analyzing the unique divide between the emerging far-right and the establishment in Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.
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ancient dudes posting their W's
300 pound ancient Greek rock carved with "Bybon son of Phola could lift this over his head"
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In a stunning upset, Jason Probst (D) of KS HD-102 has apparently won re-election to his Trump +15 State House seat in Hutchinson
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Theater kids deserve to get bullied, coming from a former theater kid
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>Trump wins in 2024
>22nd amendment somehow repealed
>Obama beats Trump in 2028
The "conservative" movement is begging for authoritarianism.
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Apparently Roanoke County met 70% of its 2017 vote as of *10AM*. This is a Republican bastion in SWVA that's Trump+20
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I don't think people recognize the situation Alaska Republicans have put the national Republicans in. The state has already been trending leftward (5 points almost in 2020), and Dunleavy and Peltola have made it all-but-inevitable a D wins it for Pres by 2028.
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CALL: Republican Jason Ballard has defeated Democrat Chris Hurst [I] in HD-12. The second flip of the night to the Republicans
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CALL - HD-63 HAS FLIPPED TO THE REPUBLICANS IN AN UPSET. GOP WINS MAJORITY 51-49
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I think this has to be the funniest carpetbag in congressional history.
Boebert lives somewhere around the red circle here, and is now running in CO-04
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JFK???? Faithful to his wife???????? HELLO????????
DeSantis is our generations JFK
He’s
- A family man
- Faithful to his wife
- Young gun who brings energy to the party
I see no reason why we shouldn’t nominate DeSantis
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every student has to be vaccinated loser, cry harder
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Oh man that's a sick logo. I haven't seen a political logo this good in ages.
As Democrats, we tell our story through an Alaska lens; a story steeped in our rich tradition and driven by our shared values.
Welcome to the AK Dems - where we do things the AK way.
🧵
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The odds of Republicans losing AZ on all levels this year just continues to increase, quite frankly.
Democrats' second effort to suspend the rules in an effort to roll back the 1864 law fails as well, again on a tied 30-30 vote.
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A two-week shutdown is very, very likely going to result in Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate in this year's Virginia state legislative elections.
TWO WEEK SHUTDOWN: GOP lawmakers saying plan now is to spend next two weeks passing full year spending bills during a shutdown. Say Oct 13 paycheck for troops is the real deadline
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CALL: Republican Winsome Sears has defeated Democrat Hala Ayala in the race for Lieutenant Governor. GOP STATEWIDE SWEEP - FLIP ALL THREE OFFICES
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In a narrow race for the House majority, you can literally point to anything ever and say "this cost Democrats the House" or vice versa with Rs barely being able to win the House. Redistricting, a flop of a campaign, an upset win, what have you. We get it.
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Apparently Democrats are just outrunning our expectations in general in the Kansas House as well, we've missed two Very Likely R districts, a Likely R district and a Tilt R district.
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CALL - Republican Tara Durant has unseated incumbent Democrat Joshua Cole in HD-28 in Stafford.
DEMOCRATS LOSE MAJORITY - 3 SEATS UNCALLED
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The conservative justices on the Wisconsin Supreme Court are pretty clearly pissed about all this.
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@MappingFL
I am failing to understand your point, are you blaming the Communists for the Nazi rise to power? Because they were absolutely not to blame, it was the conservative and centrists who allied with the Nazis against the Communists. Once Hindenburg died, they reaped what they sewn.
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CALL: Democrats have flipped the House of Delegates
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This is incredible history being made. It's a turning point in this midterm and it's a turning point for the state of Alaska IMO, which has been trending leftward for a long time.
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📈FORECAST UPDATE📉
We have a whopping 49 (!!!) changes in our US House forecast, all in favor of Democrats, as we have taken into account the current political environment for this year's election. The chamber, however, remains Lean Republican.
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Democrats flipping the House back in 2024 is getting increasingly likely.
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CALL: Republican Otto Waschmann has defeated Democrat Roz Tyler [I] in HD-75. First flip of the night to the Republicans
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Virginia Democrats are frothing at the mouth reading this tweet.
“We’re going to have a shutdown, it’s just a matter of how long,” GOP
@RepRalphNorman
says.
“We believe in what we are doing. The jury will be the country. And the jury is fed up with reckless spending.”
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We now have all results in the state legislative elections. Yes, this count includes multi-member districts, even with the NH House.
Ds flipped 80 state legislative districts across the country held by Rs.
...Rs flipped 217 districts across the country held by Ds.
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A lot of people are posting the 538 WA-3 forecast, but if your forecast doesn't show at least 1 2-in-100 race of going the other way you don't really have a forecast.
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According to the registrar's office, turnout in Hanover County has been heavy all day. Largest Republican-heavy county in VA.
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🚨📊FINAL VA FORECAST🚨📊
In our final VA 2023 state legislative forecast at
@CNalysis
, each chamber is rated as "Lean Democratic."
State Senate
71% DEM Majority
29% GOP Majority
House of Delegates
61% DEM Majority
31% GOP Majority
8% TIE
1/4
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If McAuliffe wins, it's not going to be because he ran the better campaign. That title goes to Youngkin. It's because Virginia's partisanship in an era of polarized politics saved his ass.
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North Carolina is a prime example of why we should not let state legislatures draw any maps of any sort. They should, quite frankly, be taken out of the redistricting process. Forever.
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Absolute landslide victory in this suburban Huntsville district that elected its GOP rep by 7 points in 2022. DEM pickup in a Trump +1 seat.
Democrats are winning the Trump +1 Huntsville based AL-10 special election by **30** points.
IVF backlash definitely played a role.
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Something that would be smart for Democrats to do in 2024 is to run on Republicans' book bans. Given the local elections this year and their simultaneous results for partisan offices, it has been an unsung, winning issue for them in 2023.
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Polling shows this race is a Toss-Up now. But I really, really, really don't think that's going to be the case as the list of absolutely insane things Robinson has said continue to come to light and are used in attack ads and mailers.
Here’s the video of far-right NC-GOP nominee Mark Robinson saying that “I absolutely want to go back to the America where women couldn’t vote.”
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This is pretty funny but also we are going to see so much of this kind of stuff next year and I quite frankly don't think anyone, especially the media, is prepared for it.
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IMO - Michelle Wu is likely going to succeed either Markey or Warren in the Senate. Rising star.
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I never, ever expected turnout to be this high. Here's the thing though, it's not just up in NoVA. It's up everywhere. Rurals, suburbs, exurbs, cities, etc. We obviously don't know the increase from 17 in every locality, no way I'm calling all 133. 1/2
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Astounding how Democrats had 6 months to prevent gerrymandering for 2022 and did absolutely nothing.
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This also means that after six years of predicting state legislative elections and my fourth time predicting Virginia state legislative elections, I have correctly predicted every single district in Virginia: 140/140 seats correctly predicted.
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HOLY SHIT: Catastrophic recruitment failure by Kentucky Republicans. According to the KY SOS, they left KY SD-18 uncontested, a Trump +45 (!!!) district. Incumbent Democrat Robin Webb would have been in a Likely R race.
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Yeah man, I'm sure that if she weren't seated Republicans would win a seat they just lost by 24 points in a special election. Bless your heart!
🚨 Virginia Dems Could Lose Control Of 21-19 Senate Because Member May Have Lied About Residence
Sen Hashemi claimed she lived in an apartment in SD15 where she ran. Evidence suggests she lives at a home in SD12 which she concealed, making her ineligible
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Name a county in the 2008 election that resembles this image
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With what I'm seeing in the Election Day vote in HD-57 Susanna Gibson may pull off an upset
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The fact that Democrats were unable to win any state legislative districts that didn't vote for Biden by double digits on Tuesday shows how bad the environment is for them going into 2022.
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Florida Democrats finally won something. This was a Biden-won seat that flipped to the Republicans in 2022 in the Orlando area.
Projection: Democrat Tom Keen wins FL HD-35, a gain for the Florida Democratic Party
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I concur with the conventional wisdom that the results in New Jersey were much worse than the results in Virginia for Democrats.
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Maine just joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, reaching 209 electoral votes. The compact's path to reaching 270 though remains difficult as it requires getting the highly competitive states of PA/WI/MI/AZ/NV to sign on + NH/VA.
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Illinois candidacy filings are over, and boy oh boy, do we have a lot of things to go over:
First off: every single completely rural district in Illinois is now Uncontested GOP. Illinois Democrats are completely ignoring rural areas (!!!)
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Lombardo may not have much power as Governor for his entire first term. Democrats may be on track to create a supermajority in the NV State Assembly, and are likely in a position to create a supermajority in the State Senate in 2024.
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Republican State Representative in Minnesota. Safe R seat.
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The AK Republicans are on a downward spiral, and AK entering the competitive column, officially, by 2024 makes it a headache for the national GOP.
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“I’m a Dagestani, I’m a Chechen, I’m a Russian. I’m a Jew.” Putin is apparently speaking now, boasting about Russia’s multiethnic roots. He doesn’t say “I’m a Ukrainian,” incidentally.
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OH-SEN was moved from Tilt R to Toss-Up at
@CNalysis
as soon as Trump endorsed Moreno, and the rating will stay there.
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I remember Republicans in VA last year who were skeptical that Ds could run on abortion in 2023, and it'd be foolhardy for a Republican to believe Dems can't run on this this year as well, as well as after 2024. This is almost Daisy-level stuff.
This is a painful story that so many families around America now know too well: Amanda was denied the medical care she needed, and it nearly took her life.
More than 1 in 3 women in America now lives under an abortion ban, with more on the way.
Donald Trump did this.
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Gibson would have won quite frankly if Democrats didn't abandon her, even with the scandal.
Little dig from Susanna Gibson here at those who "quit when the going got tough"
Henrico data shows she didn't underperform VanValkenburg all that much
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CONNECTICUT DEMOCRATS CREATE SUPERMAJORITY IN STATE SENATE -
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Here's something else to keep in mind in 2024: Native Alaskans broke hard for Obama once he became an incumbent. It's likely this repeats with Biden in 2024. I'd be surprised if AK was decided by a margin greater than 5 in 2024, especially if Trump becomes the nominee again.
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My 3 takeaways from last night's Michigan primary results:
- I think the uncommitted campaign didn't break through all that much.
- Biden can definitely win Michigan without the support of the Arab-American community
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If you've got a coefficient poll with a 41% GOP and 40% DEM Party ID, you're looking at something like a D+4-D+5 environment folks.
New Founders Insight Virginia poll
2023 Generic Ballot
45% Dem
44% GOP
This is with self-reported party ID of 41% GOP/40% Dem/15% Ind
For context, Founders is a nonprofit headed by former member of Youngkin administration
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ActBlue is going to raise tens of millions of dollars over the next 24 hours. Possibly even over a hundred million.
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🚨 FINAL STATE LEGISLATIVE FORECAST 🚨
@CNalysis
final forecast gives Democrats a net gain of 123 seats in single-member districts nationwide and a net gain of five state legislative chambers.
Read our 8,000+ word analysis here:
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BREAKING: Democrats are now up 31 votes after the first count of provisional votes in PA HD-151, which Democrats need to win the PA House. They were down 14 votes before.
Note: there will be a special election in a D-won district next year due to the death of the winner of HD-35
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Calling it w/
@BruneElections
: Democrats have flipped California's 4th State Senate District, which went to Trump by 5.29%, due to Republicans locking themselves out of the general election in the jungle primary.
Forecast:
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VA Dems breathing a sigh of relief. They needed this.
🚨🚨🚨NEWS >> At President Biden’s direction, the DNC is investing $1.5 MILLION into 2023 Virginia legislative races.
It’s not just about electing Democrats to the federal level, it’s about electing Dems up and down the ticket.
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🚨📊📈FORECAST UPDATE📉📊🚨
Today we're making one change to our 2024
@CNalysis
S Senate forecast...
OH-SEN | Tilt R → Toss-Up
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It needs to be documented that the NY Congressional map, if it is 23-3, has to be known as the "Hochulmander." Put it in the history books; Kathy Hochul is the most consequential figure in American politics at this moment given her power in helping Democrats win the House.
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HD-57 is a likely Democratic pickup in 2025, and with how narrow her loss was it's not surprising Gibson is looking at running again:
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Currently, there are 69 state legislative districts across the country that Republicans hold that Democrats are favored to flip this year.
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Another coastal elite who hates how people in middle America vote
Best night for cruelty in Kansas since the Lecompton Constitution. The fight will go on.
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Matt Gress, who is being attacked by I believe Reps Ortiz and De Los Santos, represents a Biden +1 seat in the AZ House and was left uncontested in 2022 (as Ds were using the single-bullet strategy for MMDs).
He's got an opponent this year, and Ds are out for blood.
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🗳️VIRGINIA ELECTION DAY TURNOUT THREAD🗳️
I'm monitoring turnout across the Commonwealth, calling registrars and such. Feel free to drop your precinct vote # if you live in a competitive district, which are the ones I'm watching. I'll be doing this through most of the day.
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Alright whoever at the AP did this has to lose their job. Like, now.
Finally,
@realdailywire
can report that the AP newswire had the Susanna Gibson porn candidate story a week before the Washington Post did, tipped off Gibson about it-leading her to get the videos removed-and decided not to run the story, despite seeming obviously newsworthy.
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📊FORECAST UPDATE📊
1 week out, here's where things stand in our VA state legislative forecast. 3 rating changes in this update:
HD-75 | Very Likely R → Likely R
HD-89 | Lean R → Tilt R
SD-27 | Tilt R → Toss-Up
VA Senate | Lean D → Likely D
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.
@CNalysis
rating update:
GA-SEN goes from Toss-Up to Tilt D. I have a hard time calling this a Toss-Up based on all evidence thus far in EV and first round results.
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Based on everything I've seen today so far I think my prediction that Spanberger wins re-election probably won't age well.
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📊FORECAST LAUNCH📊
Our 2024 presidential forecast beautifully designed by
@jhkersting
is out now. Our initial forecast gives President Biden a 62.3% chance of re-election, meaning the presidency is a "Tilt D" race.
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Bullying a cancer survivor for saying Harris was a bad VP pick is totally expected from "KHive." They're oftentimes mentally unwell people. I've never seen a more toxic politician-standom on Twitter.
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This is a Republican gerrymander.
In a surprise,
#Virginia
Redistricting Commission tomorrow will get a single statewide plan for state Senate districts. View map, analysis: Continue this thread for details -->
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IMO the strongest possible ticket D's can put together in 2024 is Sherrod Brown for President and Tammy Duckworth for Vice President. Midwest decides the presidency.
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🚨 FORECAST UPDATE 🚨
Two weeks remain. Texas is a Toss-Up. Democrats have a 99% chance of holding their majority in the House. 31 changes in our Congressional ratings. The US Senate is now Lean D.
Read our rating changes here:
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📈FORECAST UPDATE📉
The
@CNalysis
US Senate forecast has been updated. We have 7 rating changes, leading the chamber to go from Lean R to Lean D.
NC - Very Likely R to Lean R
WI - Lean R to Toss-Up
AZ - Toss-Up to Tilt D
PA - Toss-Up to Tilt D
1/2
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Something I've never seen before in my 5 years of predicting state legislative elections: a party lost every single seat that we rated as competitive. Colorado House Republicans take L of the year.
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If you wanna know just how quickly things have become even more polarized in just the last few years just look at how Eric Greitens is probably gonna be a US Senator after having to resign as Governor for what IMO is probably the most insane/disturbing scandal of the 2010's
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If you could go back to the 2018 midterms and flip the result of a race that was within 5 points, what would it be? For me:
#SDGOV
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MN went through 20 years of realignment in a fifth of the time
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🚨RACE CALL🚨
After receiving information on the outstanding provisional votes and late mail votes in HD-41,
@CNalysis
projects that Chris Obenshain (R) has won HD-41.
Final tally: 51-49 DEM House of Delegates, 21-19 DEM State Senate
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With everything counted, Chris Obenshain wins by 0.7%. Since this was a Trump +0.8 district, Lily Franklin (D) is the only candidate in the competitive Virginia state legislative races this year that outran President Biden's 2020 margin.
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CALL: Republican Jason Miyares has defeated incumbent Democrat Attorney General Mark Herring in the AG race. FLIP
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CALL - SCHUYLER VANVALKENBURG (D) FLIPS SD-16 IN HENRICO COUNTY DEFEATING REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT SIOBHAN DUNNAVANT
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