Jake Barfield
@Jake___Barfield
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I run Asheville Capital Management. Tweets are not investment advice.
Asheville, NC
Joined July 2022
If Raksul's ¥1,710 MBO price feels low; perhaps it can be explained by management sandbagging their FCF conversion rates in order to get a more lucrative take-private deal for themselves. Per the numbers given to KPMG, management estimates FCF to fall off a cliff going forward,
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This would truly be a steal if Advent is successful. Buying InPost today at €6.5 billion (27 billion PLN) values $INPST at 5.5x '26 consolidated EBITDA or rather, 13x '26 FCF of the Polish business standalone with the UK, France, and other businesses producing nearly half of the
I certainly hope that InPost isn’t taken private. There aren’t many equivalently high quality assets currently available in the world today.
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I certainly hope that InPost isn’t taken private. There aren’t many equivalently high quality assets currently available in the world today.
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This morning I published an interview that I held with Timee's CEO, Ryo Ogawa. Feel free to listen to it here. Spotify: https://t.co/d4m9gS29q3 Apple:
podcasts.apple.com
Podcast Episode · Quality Investing · 12/30/2025 · 36m
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38 books this year as well. See what I read this year and add me if you use Goodreads. https://t.co/TQBzsZnmEf
goodreads.com
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38 books this year. Lowest book count I have had in several years. I blame podcasts. Check out #GoodreadsYearinBooks @goodreads to discover the 38 books I read in 2024!
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Here’s an interview I did with Genda’s CFO last year https://t.co/nx5tFrXqly
open.spotify.com
Quality Investing · Episode
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My kids and I stumbled across one of Genda’s (🇯🇵 $9166) Kiddleton claw machines in our local Walmart this morning. The lady working nearby told me it gets 100-150 players p/day playing 3-5 rounds each (at $1 p/round), so about $500 p/day or about $15k gross rev. p/month.
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This strategy of exclusivity failed miserably for $SPOT and its bad for *literally* all participants. - Listeners are unhappy because now they have to go to Netflix to listen to a podcast. - The podcasters themselves significantly diminish their own podcast marketability and
Three Barstool Sports video podcasts — Pardon My Take, The Ryen Russillo Podcast, and Spittin Chiclets — will be exclusively available on Netflix starting in early 2026.
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Bumping because this deserves more recognition for the small base of folks on X who are following the InPost/Allegro developments. Allegro's partnerships were an intelligent move towards capital light advancement of an alternative network, but how long will DPD, DHL, Orlen, etc.
Former Allegro 1P Category Director on Inpost / Allegro deal economics: $INPST $ALE "InPost gets 8 PLN per Smart! parcel—3 PLN from Allegro and 5–6 PLN from the merchant; the Smart! fee covers about 1 PLN. It is changing. When I was at Allegro, the unit cost of APMs was EBITDA
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I have mixed feelings about this. Raksul’s CEO has done a very good job balancing growth vs profitability in the last few years since taking over from @Yasukane . That being said, Raksul has morphed from being a clean story (fabless paper printing marketplace with a few call
Raksul 4384 going private! https://t.co/iUs0d2YbCU
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Thank you for the kind words, Rene.
I very strongly resonate with @Jake___Barfield‘s investment philosophy and so of course I enjoy the podcast below very much. Strong @JohnHuber72 and @mjmauboussin influence is very apparent. I hope I will have Jake in my podcast maybe sometime next year to chat $Inpst $wise
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This is the actual Hikari Tsushin HQ. Been fortunate to visit once and can confirm… it looks like an absolute shithole, 0 maintenance capex incurred for the last 15 years 😂 Their meeting room tables looks ancient with scratched here and there, some parts were fixed with duct
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@atelicinvest is there a way to find people who I already follow on X who are also on notes?
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I am trying out ticker-notes for the next few days by @atelicinvest . Feel free to follow along. https://t.co/JcmNBOI7op
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And there it is. Mercari withdraws from the spot work industry only a year and a half after entering and trying to win market share away from Timee by offering 0% commissions. Timee maintained its 30% fees and grew by ~100% during this period.
メルカリ、スポットワーク事業「メルカリ ハロ」撤退 https://t.co/0ixJbWbICl
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This was really good. Having spent a ton of time researching Timee, this is the best analysis that I have come across yet. Better than my own write-up, I am ashamed to admit.
Timee ($215A) is NOT a typical Japanese tech story. It's a profitable, founder-led market leader. Is it an asymmetric bet? I ran the numbers. 🎯 Current penetration is tiny, suggesting massive TAM runway. 📉 Why I think the downside is capped, but the upside is 2.5x+. ⚖️
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