Jacob Orchard
@JacobOrchard5
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Economist. Ph.D. @UCSDEcon. Inflation Disparities, MPCs, and relative prices. All views are my own.
Joined March 2021
RT @ernietedeschi: BLS's first-release estimates of nonfarm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time. https://t.co….
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I don’t know about 15-20%, but if we can avoid a trade we then there is a path for these tariffs to be economically beneficial to the US. Need real import prices to actually fall though in order for ToT to improve.
"Sure, optimal tariffs in theory are probably around 15%-20%, but that will never work in practice because other countries would retaliate and erode the benefits from the tariffs.". -Most economists. Wrong. You owe an apology to @POTUS. Another huge failure for elite consensus.
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A lot of the policies in this thread are pretty terrible.
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Even with optimal fertility policy there is a political economy problem…these policies likely benefit young couples at the expense of (high propensity) older voters. Need something like universal suffrage with parents voting on behalf of kids to partially counteract.
TELL US WHAT THE EFFECTIVE FERTILITY POLICY WOULD BE. SPEAK IT. SPEAK THE WORDS, SAY IT ALOUD.
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RT @JohnArnoldFndtn: Reversing which fuels get subsidized and which get penalized every time control of Washington shifts is about the stup….
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RT @arpitrage: A very cool paper. Argues standard MPCs from micro studies are biased for several reasons. One economically interesting one….
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RT @goescarlos: Great paper showing some limits of reduced-form applied micro and how to get around them! Congrats, Jake (@JacobOrchard5)!.
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This was a fun paper to work on. Happy to see it in print.
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates,” by Orchard (@JacobOrchard5), Ramey, and Wieland (@profwieland):
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RT @Brian_Riedl: Productivity growth is the only path to long-term rising living standards, wages and jobs. The idea that sabotaging prod….
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RT @GautiEggertsson: No. "Team temporary/transitory" did not win the inflation debate. At the end of summer 2021 I was a card carrying memb….
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RT @ChristoffDTodd: As Christmas approaches, I realize that some may have concerns and perhaps some anxiety about the future. There may b….
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Awesome comeback cougars!.
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RT @SenatorRomney: It's immoral for my generation to keep adding to the national debt, expecting our grandchildren to foot the bill. We mus….
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I am excited to see that our paper on the 2001 Tax Rebates is now out as a NBER WP.
Macro counterfactuals suggest the micro marginal propensity to consume from 2001 rebates could not have been as high as leading estimates imply and are not representative of the response of total consumption, from @JacobOrchard5, Ramey, and @profwieland
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RT @rshereme: The amount of hatred towards Jews is unprecedented. Terrorists and radicals are threatening them all over the world. Even in….
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RT @Brian_Riedl: The child poverty jump is bad, but - to the extent the issue is letting the child credit fall back down to $2,000 - this r….
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