John Reade
@JReade_WGC
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Market Strategist at the World Gold Council
City of London, London
Joined August 2017
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In case you missed it, our Full Year 2017 gold demand trends report was released yesterday
#GDT
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75
2K
China
#gold
The SGE 9999 premium has widened out even further overnight and is now above 6%.
I've never seen moves like this and I've been tracking the Shanghai Gold Exchange since it started...
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Something is up with
#gold
in China.
This chart shows the international gold price denominated in CNY compared to the domestic price of the 9999 contract on the Shanghai gold exchange.
This divergence is unusual.
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Gold Investor is now live! See this article about the modernisation of the London Gold Market.
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Twenty Years of the Central Bank Gold Agreement comes to an end today.
(short thread)
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India is expected to be one of the fastest-growing countries in the world in regards to economy in 2018, expanding at an even faster rate than it did between 2012-2014. Read more of my latest
#GoldInvestor
piece here:
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Great chart from the Financial Times on inflows into
#Silver
ETFs. Unprecendented inflows on Friday and following on from large inflows on Thursday.
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Despite the apparent quiet in the global OTC
#gold
market, THIS is interesting.
Turnover on the 9999 gold contract of the Shanghai Gold Exchange just hit a seven year high.
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Gold at $1800/oz: a short thread.
Gold is trading just above $1800/oz after hitting a fresh 8-year high this week. Not much appears to stand in the way of
#gold
challenging the all-time high of $1921/oz set in September 2011.
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The past 24 hours have seen a big jump in real US yields, one of the biggest I can remember.
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With pleasure,
@JanGold_
@JReade_WGC
Can you make a chart showing the difference in price between gold traded on the SGE and SGEI (Au9999 vs iAu9999)?
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Someone pointed out this to me over the weekend.
"
#Gold
on course for fifth red month in a row. The only worse streak over the last ten years was the six months down in a row that started April 2018. Post that down move gold went on an extended rally"
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Despite the weakness in
#gold
over the past twenty-four hours, inflows into physically-backed gold ETFs continued yesterday.
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We published a new primer on
#gold
last week at the same time as
#golddemandtrends
"Gold Market Size and Structure"
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This is a great 2 minute video about the gold in the Bank of England's vaults featuring comments on the enduring value of
#gold
from Victoria Cleland, Executive Director at the BoE and on bar details from Andrew Grice, Senior Manager Operations.
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Comex
#gold
premium to OTC gold has climbed sharply as this chart from Bloomberg shows.
On 23/03 at 6am the EFP stood at about $6/oz. A day later, this has blown out ot more than $20/oz.
Due to shortages of investment gold and difficulties in shipping metal around.
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Another question, this time from people who have followed / traded gold for some years:
"Why isn't gold lower, considering the strength in the dollar and moves in real rates?"
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Its first notice day for GCQ0, the August Comex
#gold
future. Delivery notices for a record 32,732 lots were posted.
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I'm going to have to change my scale on the chart at this rate (note, it's a 5 day moving average, which is why it doesn't show +6% (yet))
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Gold: Last night Russian legislators submitted a draft bill to the Duma, the Russian Parliament, to remove the 20% VAT on investment
#gold
.
(The highest VAT on investment gold in the world)
If passed, we expect this to lead to a structural change in the Russian Gold Market.
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Gold trading on the Shanghai
#Gold
Exchange has moved to a large premium to the international gold price. We've seen premiums before, but the current percentage premium is unprecedented.
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Delivery notices for a further 1,994 Comex Jun GCM0 contracts were issued yesterday taking the total to 45,259 contracts.
4.5 million ounces of physical gold is going to change hands at the end of the month in New York!
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Physically-backed
#gold
ETFs saw inflows across almost all regions yesterday, with 8.4 tonnes of net inflows more than offsetting the small outflow I reporte d yesterday.
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After two months of outflows,
#gold
-backed ETFs saw strong inflows yesterday, the first trading day of the year.
I meant to tweet this out earlier today but got distracted. Sorry.
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I've been looking a bit more at the move in
#gold
in Asia on Monday morning.
Between 23:30 and 23:45 BST 17,538 contracts traded on Comex, low was $1677.90.
Between 23:45 to Midnight a further 7,825 contracts traded and 5,705 in the 15 minutes that followed.
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Looking at the Comex futures price of
#gold
during today's plunge, volumes were high (for the less liquid time of the day).
The Comex low of $1677/oz was much below the OTC low reported by Bloomberg, suggesting that Comex futures liquidation was behind the quick move lower.
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#Gold
has surmounted $1800/oz this morning with few fireworks (but a lot of excited tweets).
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A stunning 28,375 lots of Comex Jun futures, representing 2.8 million ounces of
#gold
, were delivered into on Friday.
This appears to be the largest ever from what I can see on Bloomberg.
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@sailorrooscout
And you’ve also been one of the most helpful, generous sources of science and empathy during the pandemic. Thank you for all you’ve done.
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Bigger news today is the changes in Comex
#Gold
futures positioning reported late on Friday.
Net Managed Money long positions increased 176t or by 5.7 moz last week, moving from net short 36t to net long 176t.
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Off for a short U.K. summer holiday. Here’s the view from the passenger seat just now.
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Some great charts in this paper on
#gold
from Bridgewater. Well worth a look.
(Thanks
@JGCCrawley
for flagging)
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I hate it when I see a post or article on gold and its illustrated with a fake gold bar photo. Here is a great image of a 1kg gold bar from
@VoimaGold
which
@SamLaakso
shared with me.
Real images are so much more powerful. Thanks
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Amazing illustration of the distortions in the projection we generally use for world maps.
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South Africa’s Rand Refinery has stopped shipping gold to London because of a lack of commercial flights according to this story from Bloomberg.
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#Gold
at an all-time high today in USD terms?
Or not?
Gold has traded much higher today and you may see headlines that it hit an all-time high in US dollars.
Although the active Comex future price hit an all-time high this morning, the spot (OTC) price did not.
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Gold: After the news earlier that the National Bank of Poland bought a further 13 tonnes of
#gold
in October taking their purchases to 25t for the year, I thought I would refresh the list of central banks that had bought gold since the start of 2017:
(long-ish thread)
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Another 1.1 million ounces of gold added to Comex
#gold
stocks yesterday.
Total now 17.04 million ounces.
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I spent a couple of years on the spot FX desk at a bank and the trader I sat next to gave me one piece of advice about important economic numbers that has always stuck with me.
The first move is very often wrong and fairly quickly reversed.
#gold
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The fact that banks still make comments like these show that they still use stupid models. A 15 sigma event is expected only once in 1.09e48 years, assuming a normal distribution. Which shows that returns aren't normally distributed, and the model is wrong.
Citi points out Italy 2 year yield moved 15 standard deviation & Bund 10 year yields moved 7 standard deviation.
These are crisis level moves yet equity ignoring.
The argument that credit is not moving (not true in Europe & EM) is not backed up
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Good Delivery List Update: Gold & Silver Russian Refiners Suspended
Statement below.
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@RobinWigg
Alternative interpretation: Over the past 50 years newspapers and journalists are responsible for making us all feel miserable.
Semi-serious question - could this be true because of the devastation the industry has faced through retrenchment.
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@PayToPlayy
volumes are ok but not great on SGE, so there is evidently a shortage of metal to buy, which probably means that imports are being restricted.
But the enthusiasm of the buyers, prepared to pay so much for gold has really surprised me.
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What's this supposed seasonality in $gold you talk of, John.
This:
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#Gold
ignored the tech sell-off yesterday, probably indicating that this was a stock / sector specific event, rather than anything more systemic.
Last around $1936/oz with a $0.75/oz bid-ask spread.
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Sentiment towards
#gold
has changed of late, with Bloomberg's robots reporting 5 straight days of inflows into physically-backed gold ETFs.
Our mtd data shows inflows into European and US -listed products, with smaller outflows from Asian and Other instruments.
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Gold: China PBOC adds
#gold
to its reserves for 4th successive month - Bloomberg.
Thanks to my colleague Mukesh Kumar for drawing this to my attention.
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Gold ETFs continue to add to holdings, up 13t yesterday, biased towards European-listed products.
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Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D turnover in August - literally off the charts (with 2 more trading days to go)!
Amazing how this contract has grown over the past 5 years and now a really important part of the global
#gold
marekt.
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Interesting story about the recent (?) launch of RMB
#gold
accounts from large onshore Chinese banks.
@RayJiaGold
any thoughts?
Just in: Many Chinese banks have launched RMB account conversion gold account business. It can purchase gold from a RMB account and deposit it into a gold account. Unlike purchasing gold in a store, bank account gold is recorded in two ways: current and fixed. (1)
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Bloomberg's robots report that physically-backed
#gold
exchange-traded funds cut long positions by about 3 tonnes yesterday.
Contrast this with volumes traded on Comex yesterday, 62 million ounces or more than 1800t.
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Gold now clearly above $1800/oz and trading at $1814/oz.
I'm not reallys ure what is driving this today as real US rates are up on the day. The dollar is a touch weak, but not enough to explain?
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Investors make big bets on silver closing giant gap with gold.
@GrantMBeasley
featuring heavily in the
@hjesanderson
article on silver.
Known as The Devil’s Metal by some who trade it :-)
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There's physical gold around, but in the wrong location, the wrong form and with an inability to move around very easily. The futures has become unanchored from the physical (which is barely trading I hear).
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Although this article is short on details, it would appear that the Xiling mine already represented one of the biggest
#gold
discoveries of the past decade and it's just got about 200t bigger (in resources).
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Gold: A story about great wealth, Mali, gold, and the effect of spending too much too quickly.
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Comex
#gold
inventories, which recently broke through 30 million ounces, are at an all-time high (I only have data back to 1992,but I am confident they were much smaller before then).
I do wonder what's going to happen to all this gold: these NY stock levels are unprecedented.
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@michaelmina_lab
Michael, am I right in saying these tests aren't generally available in the US?
Here in the UK they are free - either via post or from drugstores. Amazed the US isn't doing the same.
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Gold: So here's something that caught my attention - a bit of a stealth rally in XAUEUR - gold denominated in euro - over the past few weeks, to take it to the highs of the year. A sign of underlying stength in
#Gold
?
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Gold: Central bank buying of gold is becoming more and more diversified as this story about Hungary demonstrates. Thanks
@PopescuCo
for highlighting this.
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Tough quarter for
#gold
explained in GDT Q3-17. Drop in ETF inflows only partly offset by better bar & coin demand. 1/3
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We can confirm, based on conversations with institutional investors, that very low - in some cases negative - government bond yields have triggered some long-term investment in gold.
Thanks,
@elerianm
Some signs that the rally in
#gold
reflects more than the usual drivers... e.g., a gradual structural shift among
#investors
re the role of gold in long-term asset allocations as a result of the very low yields on government bonds associated with central bank market interventions
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@GrahamKritzer
Hopefully an email thanking you for teaching him and his class an invaluable lesson in personal finance.
😂😂😀
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@BrynnTannehill
Born in 1965.
Traumatised when I was 4 or 5 by The Child Carcher from Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.
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Gold: We look back to the failure of Lehman and how
#gold
performed around that time and in the years that followed.
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Gold: I said earlier this year I wouldn't comment on every day of
#gold
ETF flows, but five days in a row of inflows is worth highlighting....
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#Gold
hits another all-time nominal high ($2037/oz) but is well short of its real all-time high of about $2800/oz from 1980.
Read more in this investment update, released last week.
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Gold: The National Bank of Poland bought 100t of
#gold
so far in 2019, according to this press release.
This is a BIG increase and compares to the 25.7t bought in 2018, which in itself was big news.
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Real US Bond yields have headed lower (i.e. more negative) over the past 24 hours, helping
#gold
stabilise I believe.
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Gold: Indian households own 24-25'000 tonnes of gold, accoring to work from
@GOLDCOUNCIL
quoted by our head of India
@SomPR_WGC
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Russia’s central bank announced yesterday that it will suspend domestic
#gold
purchases on 1 April, with further decisions on gold to be made depending on market circumstances.
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A major part of the move higher in gold over the past two trading days has been US real yields heading increasingly negative.
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Gold: The PBOC has just announced that it added
#gold
to its holdings in February, marking the third month running.
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Ecuador Central Bank used gold to raise $300mln US dollars via a one-month swap.
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Sir Nicholas Winton is honoured in the Google doodle today.
Re-watching this clip brings tears to my eyes, as it always does.
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The active Comex
#gold
futures is trading at about $25/oz above the spot gold price. This is wider than yesterday after the move higher in gold.
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For those tracking the SGE / China
#gold
(and silver) markets,
@oriental_ghost
is a great follow.
Today, gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange continued to rise, closing at =$2023/oz in the morning; Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose sharply, closing at =$25.40/oz in the morning.
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Russian state television channel announces a gold-backed BRICS currency.
The official announcement is due at the BRICS sumit in August in South Africa, according to RT.
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In fact, 2018 saw the highest level of annual net purchases since the suspension of dollar convertibility into
#gold
in 1971, and the second highest annual total on record.
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GCQ0, the active Comex
#gold
future is trading at a premium of $17-18/oz to the spot (OTC loco London) gold price.
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H1 net inflows into
#gold
-backed ETFs totalled 734t, more than the the largest annual inflows of 646t in 2009.
More than the record annual central bank buying seen in 2018 and 2019.
Equivalent to about 45% of H1-2020 mine supply.
ETFs now hold more gold than the Bundesbank.
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Gold: Trading above $1650/oz after a nearly $30/oz move today.
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