Another reason to recognize Somaliland independence is that it would undermine the dangerous Greater Somalia irredentism that Ilhan Omar recently invoked. Were I Mogadishu, I'd suppress that talk because of its possible effect on Kenya's deliberations about the Ethiopia-SL MoU.
@mukhtaryare
@LydenFOX9
@IlhanMN
Does Liban have any proof he was offered a bribe? Otherwise, this seems like a desperate CYA attempt to distract from getting caught on video potentially committing a criminal act
Pleased to have hosted on Friday Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, member of the Government of Tigray (GoT) Central Command and, for decades, one of Ethiopia’s most influential military strategists. He is currently an architect of the Tigrayan Defence Forces’ campaigns.
Given the potentially historic significance of the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU yesterday, it's worth remembering a few facts: 1) it is Somalilanders who have separated themselves from Somalia for 30 years, not a shadowy international conspiracy to dismember Somalia.
"We will defend our country...by all means at our disposal." Imagine if Somalia's government had responded with as much determination and unanimity of purpose to the threat of al-Shabaab as it has to Somaliland signing an MoU with Ethiopia. Shabaab would be a shell of itself.
🚨BREAKING *SUBTITLED*:
President of failed state Somalia
@HassanSMohamud
delivered a speech tonight in which he threatened the international community he'll:
"knock on doors I dont want to knock on".
Implication here is possibly Russia and/or China.
Desperation is…
The idea that Ethiopia is infringing on Somalia's sovereignty by signing the MoU with Somaliland relies on a pure technicality & not on reality. Nothing would meaningfully change for Mogadishu if the MoU goes into force, because it has no practical sovereignty over SL anyway.
Turkiye has economic & strategic reasons for signing a defense agreement with Somalia. It has little to do with the Somaliland dispute, which Turkiye almost certainly doesn't want to get involved in, especially because Ethiopia is one of Turkiye's most important African partners.
Had a recent conversation with a Somaliland friend that sparked this reflection: Ethiopia and Somalia for centuries were each other's greatest enemies. Kudos to Somaliland and Ethiopia for being mature enough to put aside old enmities for the sake of their national interests.
Massive development in the Horn of Africa and beyond if this comes to fruition. For one, it means the excuse some in the US government use that Washington shouldn't recognize SL because it would preempt Africa on the issue no longer applies (it was always a silly argument anyway)
VIDEO:
#Ethiopia
will be the first country to recognise
#Somaliland
as an independent nation and we will be 1st state to realise Addis Ababa its dreams for sea access, said Muse Bihi. The MoU paves the way to allowing Ethiopia to have commercial marine operations in the region by…
Happy to have my latest report out arguing that US should recognize
#Somaliland
as the independent country that it already is in practice. American foreign policy is most effective when it is facts-based, & US would gain a number of significant benefits by recognizing Somaliland:
The Somaliland government allowed us to visit Hargeisa and issued the visa. The Somali government has no authority, and hasn’t for three decades, in Somaliland. That reality is a core part of its case for recognition.
The fact that a US-trained commando has been fighting Somaliland is a huge problem. The US has spent a lot of money training the commandos to fight terrorists, not pro-American Somaliland. If Mogadishu is directing commandos against SL, it is a gross misuse of American aid.
@BBCSomali
confirms that Mohamed Aden Suleiman, commander of the the 4th battalion of rump
#Somalia
🇸🇴’s much-ballyhooed
#USA
🇺🇸-trained
#Danab
Brigade, was killed over the weekend fighting
#Somaliland
Government forces in the eastern
#Lasanod
region. 🤔
Leaving aside the profound hypocrisy of this group that was one of the loudest
#HandsoffEthiopia
voices during the Tigray fighting, the conflict in Amhara is tragic and dangerous. Let's hope it is peacefully resolved as quickly as possible.
As reported by several local, international media, and the Ethiopian human rights commission, the government of Ethiopia is using drones and heavy weapons to attack and kill civilians, shelling residential neighborhoods and threatening to destroy UNSECO protected historical…
Turkey has been training Somali military’s commissioned and noncommissioned officers at the Turksom base in Mogadishu since 2017.
There is a substantial presence of female officers.
They all speak good Turkish.
More than 800 graduates so far.
The conflict in
#Ethiopia
, despite getting less and less attention globally, is still raging. Very much looking forward to this conversation where we will talk through some of the complexities of this terrible war.
Very sad news about the fire that destroyed Waheen Market in
#Hargeisa
, wiping out many people’s livelihoods in one night. It is a big blow, but
#Somaliland
has overcome much greater challenges. Hoping the US and others will support the rebuilding process.
Second thread: General Tsadkan described what GoT wants in a peace process, & emphasized numerous times that Tigrayans believe this is a war of survival, so, absent a “robust, credible, impartial” peace process, they have no choice but to fight.
Al-Shabaab still controls parts of Somalia, & Mogadishu is trying to rally the international community against what it says is the unbearable violation of its sovereignty posed by the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU. Meanwhile, Somalia's police and army start fighting each other.
No country on earth so aggressively and intensively commits economic espionage as does
#China
. It is a key part of the government's development strategy.
Many similarities between the Greater Somalia idea & Putin's logic justifying his invasions of Ukraine & Georgia.Putin claims those lands were unjustly taken from the USSR & are inhabited by Russian speakers, which ineluctably bonds them to Russia. Irredentism is always dangerous
I frequently see people point to the fact that Somaliland's politics are dominated by the Isaaq as if that delegitimizes Somaliland.But the reason they dominate is because they are the largest clan. Expecting the majority clan not to have a majority share of government is bizarre
Mogadishu's only realistic path forward is to scare international community over prospect of further instability in the Horn in hopes it pressures Ethiopia & SL. How does Mogadishu think the countries propping up its army will react if it stops fighting Shabaab to fight Ethiopia?
UK 🇬🇧 Parliament names Taiwan 🇹🇼 an independent country. “Taiwan possesses all the qualifications for statehood, including a permanent population, a defined territory, government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states…”
#Churchill
@ChinaDaily
#China
Warm greetings to my friends, the Government & People of
#Somaliland
, on the 63rd anniversary of the attainment of national independence from the
#UK
🇬🇧 — at a time when
#Italy
🇮🇹 still administered Mogadishu, a critical legal point under OAU &
@_AfricanUnion
norms. Hambalyo!
A country's foreign policy should protect the welfare and prosperity of its citizens. State Department should be asked a simple question: "How does the US's current Somalia policy make Americans more prosperous and safer?" The answer, of course, is that it doesn't.
The US State Department’s Spokesperson Matt Miller stated that the United States recognizes sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia within 1960 borders.
A privilege to host
@HEBobiwine
here
@Heritage
last night. I better understand why he is so popular with many Ugandans, particularly young people. He was thoughtful and gracious, & I hope he will be able to campaign on a level playing field.
#Uganda
Some reflections on my Somaliland trip 🧵: I was reaffirmed in my belief that its independence deserves to be recognized. It has problems—the Aug 11 violence was tragic & concerning—but its history suggests its practice of consultation and consensus building will win out again.
2) Mogadishu has no practical authority in Somaliland. The fact that it can currently only issue statements demonstrates yet again that it is not meaningfully sovereign over SL, and hasn't been for decades (though it can potentially cause trouble in other ways).
Naturally, the question arises of what the stance of the AU is and in what way the AU supported the independence movement of Somaliland. The documents of the OAU and the AU that have been longstanding emphasize the inviolability of borders.
Pleased to host last week H.E.
@Vbiruta
,
#Rwanda
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Int'l Cooperation; H.E.
@MujaJeanne
, Minister of Environment; H.E.
@AmbMukantabana
, Rwandan ambassador to the U.S.; and other distinguished guests for an open conversation about US-Rwanda relations
Very excited to host the president of Somaliland, H.E.
@musebiihi
for an address on Monday the 14th. You can sign up below to watch virtually what should be a fascinating discussion about this functioning, though unrecognized, state.
If you take him at his word, and I do, the Tigrayan leadership sincerely believes that defeats means Tigray and many Tigrayans will cease to exist. When those are the stakes, they will probably bear almost any cost.
My thoughts below on
@MohamoudGaildon
's argument against the US recognizing
#Somaliland
. Key points from my piece: "the growing international movement to recognize Somaliland’s independence exists only because of Somaliland’s decades-old decision to separate itself from Somalia"
Gabiley National Library is a great example of one of the things I admire about Somaliland. The local community contributed significant funds to build it, and didn’t wait for foreign assistance. They took responsibility for their own fate. I hope I can return some day!
Glad to host Dr. Dessalegn
@cdessalegn
, co-founder & senior leader of the National Movement of Amhara
@NAMA_at_ABIN
last week for a fascinating discussion. Dr. Dessalegn is also an MP representing Bahir Dar City. My main takeaways from the discussion, though there was much more🧵
My latest report that compiles a unique data set: Chinese companies have built at least 186 African gov't buildings, including 24 offices/residences of heads of state, 32 military or police installations, etc.
#China
4) SL's claim to independence is entirely unique in Africa, and in the world. Its recognition will raise the standard for independence movements. You want independence? Then have your own government, army, currency, elections, & history of recognized independence.
It was wonderful to visit the Taiwan mission to Somaliland where we were received with great hospitality. Somaliland and Taiwan have already accomplished great things together, I’m excited to see what they will do next.
6) It's a big deal that an African country has been the first to recognize, especially one as important as Ethiopia--seat of the AU, 2nd largest population, potential economic juggernaut, etc. This makes it much easier for other countries to recognize.
Kenya’s Lamu port, built by China Communications Construction Company, is handling far less cargo than it was projected to. Kenya's other huge & expensive infrastructure project, the SGR, is also running under capacity. Early returns on the infrastructure splurge are not good.
Compelling report by
@O_McPS
& former Asst. Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer applying the lessons of US recognition of Kosovo to Somaliland. As rigorous examinations of this type usually conclude, the case for US recognition of Somaliland is overwhelming
Hosted an interesting discussion w/
@reda_getachew
and
@SMGebru
yesterday. The conflict in
#Tigray
has slipped down US policymakers' priority list, but it is still dangerous and a humanitarian disaster.
7) It's possible this leads to some short-term instability. Al-Shabaab has already made its threats, Mogadishu may stir trouble, and the clan uprising in eastern SL may kick off again. But this should be a long-term win for SL, Ethiopia, & the region.
The ancient Laas Geel rock paintings in Somaliland are world-class, absolutely worth a visit. I hope someday we discover more about the civilization that painted them, and why. For now, though, the mystery adds to the fun.
Somaliland releases a statement unequivocally affirming that Ethiopia agreed to grant SL recognition. This must be in response to the ambiguous statements Ethiopia has been releasing, maybe because of blowback to the original MoU. If so, how did Addis not foresee the backlash?
I'd like to see the actual Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU. I wouldn't describe this as a guarantee of recognition: “includes provisions for the Ethiopian government to make an in-depth assessment towards taking a position regarding the efforts of Somaliland to gain recognition.”
MOU for Partnership and Cooperation has been signed between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Somaliland. The MOU includes scopes of cooperation in social, economic, political and military fields.
full statement below
#Ethiopia
🇪🇹
#PMOEthiopia
Join us tomorrow for a discussion with
@JMeservey
on the Memorandum of Understanding between
#Somaliland
and
#Ethiopia
11 AM US East or 7 PM Hargeisa time.
DM us your questions, send them to editor
@somalilandchronicle
.com or retweet/Reply to this tweet with your question.
Former US ambassador to Somalia, Steve Schwartz, yesterday had an excellent article analyzing
#Somaliland
. Everyone should read it. Steve is a serious thinker who knows East Africa very well, & he makes a number of strong points.
Such a privilege yesterday to visit the graveyard for those who died in the world wars fighting in Somaliland for the allies. Somalilanders, Brits, Kenyans, Rhodesians, and Indians are buried here, including members of the famed Somaliland Camel Corps.
3) SL's practice of independence is a direct result of Somalia's decades-long dysfunction. Fixing that should be the Somalia elite's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd priorities.
8) Despite its self-defeating insistence on going all in on Mogadishu at the expense of relations with SL, the US still has a chance to be constructive, especially by working to cool the hotheads.
Leaders of the Somaliland naval forces and representatives from the European Union gathered in Berbera to engage in talks focused on strengthening the partnership between Somaliland and the EU to ensure the safety of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Never thought I'd see an American sitcom use Somaliland as part of a story line, and this is a legitimately funny clip. Also a good warning to people like me about how easy it is to step in it regarding the complexities of the Horn of Africa, something I've certainly done before.
Real Clip📺
SOMALILAND MAKES IT TO HOLLYWOOD!
Don't let other video clip cuts fool you; the point of this storyline is that.
-Somaliland is a legitimate country in all but name.
-Somalia is insecure & gets agitated every time the world mentions Somaliland😆
-Geopolitical…
My oped building off an earlier report making the case for why the US should recognize
#Somaliland
. Developments in East Africa since I wrote the piece, particularly the coup in
#Sudan
, only strengthen one part of the argument: "the U.S. should be seeking out areas of calm...
Here's the recording of the discussion again. Absolutely worth a watch as it's a fascinating perspective from a man who has been involved in the negotiations with the Ethiopian government and who, of course, is central to Tigray's military campaign.
Wonderful news. Congress is right to push for a closer US-Somaliland relationship, as the benefits for both sides are significant and obvious. Kudos to the hardworking hill staff who got this through; the next chapter in the US-Somaliland relationship is going to be exciting!
Great seeing in FY23 NDAA agreed text (see Sec 1275, pp 1174-1179) language similar to
@SenateForeign
Ranking Member's
#Somaliland
Partnership Act,
#S3861
. Note the reference to Somalia's FMS "AND" Somaliland. Also, the "Rule of Construction" clear to NOT "convey US recognition."
Was glad to tackle, along with
@TiborPNagyJr
, arguments against the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU that I find unconvincing. Among those are the fear that it will empower al-Shabaab. How would the MoU do that more than the presence of thousands of foreign troops in Somalia?
Exactly: "Ankara doesn't have any wish or intention to position itself against Addis Ababa...'the Turkish naval presence in the Somali territorial waters would be a deterrent against terrorism, piracy and others...But Ankara isn't looking for adventure to go to war'."
@JustAwHirsi
I'm trying to get a clear answer on your position. I think it's important, since this debate is about Somali irredentism, to know whether a Somalian gov't official thinks parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, & all of Djibouti should be Somalia's. Your answer is "yes," correct?
Got to see important pieces of African history at the University of Hargeisa: copies of the agreements Somalilanders reached among themselves following the ruinous war against Siad Barre. Landers initiated & led the reconciliation process that underpins SL's achievements today.
My best guess is that it's because Eritrea invaded and pillaged its way through northern Ethiopia, and ever since has done all it can to undermine peace talks between the TPLF and the government of Ethiopia.
There's an elephant in the room that they're ignoring (perhaps deliberately sidelining?). So many questions. For one, if biased powers ("guarantors") from faraway continents are invited to the table, why isn't 🇪🇷 who has been the victim of these "guarantors" & their HoA lackey?
I really enjoyed the first round, and I expect the second to be just as good. We will have more time for questions as well, so get your hardest ones ready (if it's too hard, I'll obviously re-direct it to Sam😁).
.
@JMeservey
of
@Heritage
and I had a great
#TwitterSpaces
conversation last Friday and we are back this Friday, May 13 at 3:30pm EST to continue “
#Ethiopia
At War: The Conflict in
#Tigray
and Beyond.” We’ll be on for 90 minutes this time — tune in! 👉🏾
@EA_DevCouncil
Sorry, but no. Your organization consistently and aggressively called for the US to stop bothering about human rights violations during the Tigray war. There's no whitewashing that record.
Congress leading on trying to make US's Somalia policy more rational. Next step should be a hearing. State Dept should have to explain: what benefit does US derive from its current
#Somalia
policy? What about Somalia's situation suggests current US policy is working?
#Somaliland
President
@musebiihi
’s meetings w/ U.S. officials this week reflect the complex reality of our bilateral relationships on the Horn, but we should not limit ourselves to a “single
#Somalia
” policy. The admin should explore ALL areas of engagement in the region.
This was an on-the-record (at least 3 or 4 journalists attended), invite-only event as I said in both the invitation & during the discussion. I cleared that arrangement w/ Gen Tsadkan before the session. Heritage will post the audio probably tomorrow, I just haven't had time yet
I'm hugely excited and honored to join the
@HudsonInstitute
team that I have long admired. They do world-class work every day, and I can't wait to contribute as a Sr. Fellow focused on Africa. Let's go!
Why is Freedom House promoting a piece that seeks to elevate a government in Mogadishu that ranks 7x worse than Somaliland in Freedom House’s own rankings? Bizarre.
"In colonial days, foreign men drew lines on paper to divide the Somali people without their knowledge. Today, men in Washington are working to decide the fate of Somalis as one aspect of global competition with China," writes
@MohamoudGaildon
for
@Salon
.
Amb Hussien must be talking about Eritrea here. If there is a true break between Addis and Asmara, does Eritrea withdraw without a fuss? Does it refuse and the ENDF, perhaps with the TDF, tries to force it out?
"On both side, from the air & on the ground that our territorial integrity & borders were violated. We were busy fighting each other; we were busy undermining each other; that paved the way for 3rd party to undermine us further." - Amb.
@RedwanHussien
briefing diplomats in
#Addis
Mogadishu can only stop the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU by building enough international pressure on Eth to make it backtrack.Somalian partisans hope the defense pact will add to the pressure, but it obviously has nothing to do with Eth. Why would Turkiye pick such a pointless fight?
Ukrainian separatists exist only because Russia supported them and used them as puppets. That is not the dynamic between Ethiopia and SL. Furthermore, Ethiopia isn't annexing anything, it's leasing--meaning, paying for--a small enclave. The situations aren't remotely comparable.
If country A can grab a territory belonging to country B, with the justification that country B was not in full control of said territory (even though the territory is recognized to belong to country B by all international bodies), then why was Putin wrong to claim Eastern…
US joins a statement about Mogadishu's "firm intention" to finalize the constitution, a process that has been totally opaque, divisive, & un-democratic. Where does this unwillingness to hold Mogadishu accountable come from? Is it a function of the lowest possible expectations?
Not everything that happens in Africa is about the US. In fact, very little is. Africans have their strongly held beliefs & motivations that they'll pursue, whether or not the US approves.
Right. This is one of the things that confuses me about regional powers opposing the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal. Abiy's political legitimacy rests on getting sea access, so he's going to keep trying. Getting access through SL is probably the single least disruptive way to do that.
This is either a bluff, or a short term tactical retreat. If Somaliland isn't an option, Abiy will simply switch focus back to Eritrea (Assab = first choice anyway). The PM sees acquiring/restoring access to the sea, ideally the Red Sea, as his historic mission
He thanked the US government several times for trying to arrange a peace process & for providing humanitarian aid that reached Tigrayans “at a critical moment.”
This 1st thread is on my understanding of the General’s description of the fighting. 2nd thread will be on GoT’s negotiating position & its view of the war, as described by the General. Please correct me if I misunderstood the General on any point. Recording posted at the end
But hundreds of Turkish companies operate in Ethiopia, & it's a major African destination for Turkish investment. They also have defense ties (Turkish drones helped turn the tide of the Tigray war). Turkiye involving itself in the SL dispute would be a headache with no advantage.
The fact that many Somalis prefer al-Shabaab's courts and its taxation system is a profound indictment of Somalia's government. Until that reality changes, the fight against al-Shabaab cannot be won
General reiterated numerous times that Tigrayans are in a fight for their existence/survival: it is the “Declared intention of both the gov't of Abiy Ahmed and the gov't of Isaias Afewerki to finish not only TPLF and its associates but Tigrayans in general b/c of who they are.”
Somalia president
@HassanSMohamud
welcomes another Somali military unit who have been training in Eritrea for almost four years.
He told them to take a month’s leave before they join the fight against al-Shabaab.
Also want to thank the people who pointed out that, contrary to what I wrote, several non-Isaaq clan members do hold seats in the Somaliland parliament. My source was a BBC article () that was apparently incorrect. Apologies for the error
An influx of aid into SL would be a mistake as it would risk undermining the self-reliance and determination that has made Somaliland successful. There are many examples in Africa of aid money fueling conflict & creating dependency. Investment in & trade with SL is the way to go.
And let's be real: the fact that Somaliland is dominated by one clan probably significantly contributes to the relative peace it has enjoyed. Clans generally don't get along, and their rivalries have ripped Somalia apart for decades.
Exactly right. The Chinese Communist Party's audacity in frequently boasting about its supposed competence when it oversaw the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, forced abortions, the Covid-19 disaster, and others is almost breathtaking:
Honored to testify yesterday before the US House Homeland Security Committee's subcommittee for Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, & Intelligence. The subcommittee understands the seriousness of the problem, and it was a pleasure to appear with such distinguished colleagues.