Greenhaven Road
@GreenhavenRoad
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Last Seen Profiles
The Q4 Letter is up. We look at $KKR $PAR $APPS $NYT $ROKU $ESTC and discuss fight club.....
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If you have piled into FANG- worth the read
$AMZN $FB $NFLX $GOOG
If you are investing outside the indices, also worth the read - so basically worth the read....
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Looking out 1-2 years with "normalized earnings" what is the most attractive risk/reward - HIGH free cash flow yield you see out there? Ideally not reliant on travel bounce back and balance sheet to see the other side.
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Q3 Letter is out. Covers a lot of ground: $PAR $KKR $APPS $ESTC $ROKU $AEYE $APG $NLS $BNED
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Latest investor letter up, covers $APPS $IAC $ESTC $PAR $SHSP $KKR $GOGO $APG and other companies, as well as investing during a pandemic.
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Q4 Letter is up - $APPS $PAR $KKR $CLBT $ESTC $TDOC
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This Steve Mandel interview has a lot of nuggets on how he built Lone Pine and what he looks for. He did the interview to raise money for Covid relief. Legend goes for an hour....
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Q 1 Letter is up
$APPS $SHSP $KKR $KLR $PAR $CVNA $PINS $UBER $ROKU $CSSE $OPT
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$FCAU will end the year with >$7 per share in net cash pro forma parts sale. If you put a PE of 4 on the core auto business ex cash - you get a price > $22. Current price implies a PE of 2. Chairman makes the pilgrimage to Omaha every spring...Buyback? Tender? who is selling?
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Here is a link to the latest quarterly letter
A number of stocks are discussed:
$PAR $SHSP $KKR $PAR $ETSY $BOX $EVI $CSSE $APPS
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Q1 letter is up - What you have to believe to own $KKR $PAR $ESTC $TDOC $APPS
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GOAT media investor John Malone makes the case for media platforms such as $Roku. start watching at 17 min mark or 22 minute mark if you only care about platforms
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Q3 Letter is up – Digital Turbine $APPS in depth as well as $PAR $ESTC $MKTW $KKR
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Most recent letter discusses types of investments currently held including $KKR $PAR $BXC $ETSY $GIG $EVI $SVIN $SHSP
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We have a fund of funds focused on emerging managers - the smartest folks I can find. Here they provide perspectives on investing during the pandemic
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Link to the latest letter
$ESTC $KKR $PAR $SHSP $APPS $KLR
If you want them sent directly to you
we don't call or bother you - just send letters if that is the box you check
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Hey SnarkyPM
@JetSkiGolfLife
instead of spending your Thanksgiving dunking on Fred, let’s do something more productive.
My letter will drop this weekend, save you the time, we are down. In the letter I outline why we hold $PAR $ESTC $CLBT $KKR.
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Q4 Letter is out - $KKR $BXC $FCAU $SHSP $ETSY $BOX
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Our Q4 Partners Fund letter is up - it is a talented group of managers (IMHO)
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This is what a money machine looks like $KKR
AUM of $471 billion, up 87% y/y
• Fee Paying Assets Under Management of $357 billion, up 92% y/y
• Uncalled Commitments of $112 billion, up 67% y/y
• New Capital Raised of $19 billion in the quarter and $121 billion for the year
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FinTwit
Family office in Ohio backed by someone who has compounded at higher rates than most of us for longer than most of us is hiring. Really high quality people. Senior Analyst & VP . I wish a young Scott Miller had been presented this opportunity….you have no excuse.
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Here is a link to our Q4 letter with a writeup of $IWG (yes office related) Thank you
@1maincapital
for laying out their transition to the asset light partnership model.
Other companies discussed
$CLBT $PAR $KKR $APG $BUR
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Give FinTwit your top 4 investments and why you own them – if your four outperform over the next 12 months, I will donate $10K to the food bank of your choice next thanksgiving.
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Q1 Letter out. $FCAU $AINC $ETSY $TRIP $EVI $IEA $PRPL
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Q2 Letter is up - $APPS $ESTC $KKR $PAR $MKTW $ROKU
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$APPS with one of the best quarters I have ever seen. Revenue + 146% while profitable (rule of 140), and expanding gross margins!!! What happens if / when AT&T and Verizon come on as content partners?? Rarely is a holding up 25% and I don't sell some on the news.
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If you own $PAR this is a must read. Businesses evolve, people matter.
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A link to the latest investor letter - $KKR $APPS $PAR $ETSY $SHSP $NTDOY
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Hey
#Fintwit
First ballot hall of fame investor Steve Mandel of Lone Pine is doing a talk on Tuesday 12/15 to benefit a good cause – donations optional – need to register in advance. He was early on $FB and many others. Learn and support a good cause
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Ouch. Not a fun day or year as an $APPS shareholder. The multiple continues to compress, as their guidance was disappointing. It is effectively 4% revenue growth for the quarter and getting stronger as the year progresses. (1/6)
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This was fun to do - been a user of the site since the beginning
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DigitalTurbine ($APPS) at the Oppenheimer 5G conference today brought on their head of partnerships to talk about live testing of SingleTap with Meta ($FB).
Probably nothing to see here, live testing with second largest distributor of Apps.
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If you play a drinking game during the $APPS conference call where you have to drink every time they say operating leverage, synergy, or exceeding our expectations - you will be drunk - these guys keep crushing it.
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$APPS said on the Oppenheimer call yesterday - SingleTap has grown to a near 9 digit run rate business ($100M) while only working with a DOZEN advertisers. That is NEW information.
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High schools can stop teach calculus and focus on
@morganhousel
it will be far more useful.
This is so good - just read it.
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For those interested the Q3 letter is out. $FCAU $BOX $SHSP $ETSY $EVI $YELP
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$KKR is down 23% YTD - some people were worried about their balance sheet investments being hit hard, hardly a dent.
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$PAR lands Wendy's for their loyalty product.
@SavneetS
and team continue to execute. On the order of $6M in ARR. If only there were indications...
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Conversation with Savneet Singh $PAR in 45 minutes, Open to all.
. .
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Completely agree with ADW on $FCAU - worth the read just for the valuation work, other drivers of value are gravy.
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For those who interested - the Q4 letter is up on the website
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$RICK numbers are very strong - ADW is smiling, most interesting part of the release "investors are invited to meet management at one of RCI's top revenue generating clubs." event 7PM tonight NYC
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@AskeladdenTX
@EnergyCredit1
Let me start by saying that I appreciate the fact that
@EnergyCredit1
has put out his model so we can even try to have a thoughtful conversation. He did real work which already puts him top decile on FinTwit.
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Good summary of $ESTC
In a quarter that included two of the most difficult months for businesses in memory (March and April) they grew 57%.
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One line mattered on $APPS call.
“I'm pleased to report that we made progress in the quarter on all fronts, as we increase the number of active direct advertisers to approximately 50 and are working with multiple Tier 1 partners on licensing SingleTap more broadly.”
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I'll be doing a fireside chat with Savneet Singh, CEO of Par Technology at
@manualofideas
' Latticework NY virtual conference this Wednesday morning at 9 am ET. I hope to see many of you there! DM me any questions you think I should ask him.
@SavneetS
@PAR_Tech
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Nice work by Pembroke laying out case for not tendering $CLCT at $75.25. Given upside don't care if
@StevenACohen2
ups his tender. Happy to hold. Does not factor in marketplace - high margin high multiple business.
@AltaFoxCapital
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Worlds collide $PAR $SHSP incredibly excited, Savneet is the real deal in my opinion (this link should work)
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Anyone think
@1MainCapital
is wildly off on $KKR - I own it with a similar thesis - coherent bear arguments welcome
$KKR and $APO are too cheap to ignore
disc: long both names
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Again, podcast Adam Wyden
@Adam_Wyden
is way better than Twitter Adam. If you like Adam worth a listen, if you hate Adam worth a listen. Touches on $PAR and interviewed by
@SavneetS
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ADW has compounded in the 30's net of fees and is getting big here - ugh the errors of omission
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Worth the read - potentially a long way to go here.
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Do I only want to own South Africa - No, but the right manager, in the right part of the markets, at the right time.... Is zero really the right allocation??? Rudi is a craftsman
@RudivNiekerk
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Best $PAR writeup out there - the path to a double
Invested in
@CapitalVoss
through our Partners Fund and invested in the $PAR PIPE
New deals are accretive. Improve growth rate, accelerate profitability, open international, open C-Suite. This on top of
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$MKTW is a SPAC, people hate SPACs. It might surprise you that:
-$50K invested capital has grown to $500M+ in annual revenue
-Gross margins 86%
-Grown 18 of 20 years
-Profitable 20 of 20 years
-Growing revenue (50%+ last Q) while generating cash (30% FCF margins)
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If you don’t have 45 minutes to listen to Morgan Housel just start indexing - total beast
Here is Morgan Housel's fantastic presentation:
What Other Industries Teach Us About Investing
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Own it - and again agree with ADW>
ADW Sees This Micro-Cap As A 30-Bagger Waiting To Happen $$
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Great summary of $ESTC - I agree the guidance is conservative.
In this post, I conduct a review of the latest results for Elastic and take-aways from their recent analyst event. I also examine product updates, their broader platform strategy and how they are positioning against competitive offerings. $ESTC
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A good primer on $APPS
$APPS In this Newsletter, I tried to go over everything Digital Turbine. The main goal was to attempt to tell the story of the company's evolving business through their business model, track record, and financial analysis
Hope you enjoy!👇
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$CLBT - the opportunity for revenue growth and multiple expansion. Scaled player with secular tailwinds and limited competition
Cellebrite $CLBT tier 1 public sector software asset at discount prices
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Market thinks a potential change to Android tracking in 2 years is bad for $APPS - Bill Stone disagrees on last call (I know quote is about Apple IDFA but same point)
1/4
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This is a really good thread on $KKR
Time to rehash the $KKR long thesis:
1)Unlike other alt managers, KKR leans into its business by using its balance sheet.
2)Using the BS to seed new strategies has helped KKR grow and diversify its AUM – from $23bn of AUM in 2005 to >$200bn currently.
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Below is our thesis on $HGTY like $BNED we think there is a very small group of people who are actually doing the work to understand the business and model the marketplace business / State Farm partnership / reinsurance.
(1/x) A short thread on $HGTY’s business model and why we believe it has long-term compounding potential.
Disclaimer: The information in this thread is not intended to be and does not constitute investment or financial advice. You should not make any decision based on the
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$PAR - new language in 10Q - Strategic Alternatives.... My take, they engaged a bank to sell government and lawyers made them add the language...
"In addition, our board of directors and management regularly evaluate our business, strategy, and financial plans and prospects. As
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In school my daughter learns trig, Calc AB and Calc BC. Odds suggest she is unlikely to use when 30. In school she spends zero time on decision making (expected value, base rates etc) yet she should use those skills every day.
@AnnieDuke
turned me on to
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Travis is a manager in our Partners Fund - he is an A player
Voss Capital talking $EXTR $PAR $AVID $NTDOY $LPX $RMNI and $TBRD.V
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Long Rudi....
"Why are you digging for investing diamonds in South Africa, Rudi van Niekerk?" ()
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Murray Stahl makes the case for small active managers - completely agree
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For those interested - Greenhaven Road Q3 Investor Letter is now up on the site
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This guy is talking my book $PAR
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Don't like the sound of my own voice - but kind of nailed it $FIG
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Connor nailed this - well done
Nice day for $CLCT. Market starting to figure it out... but still tremendous growth... I think $100+ next year.
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$GOGO was on my radar screen from a manager presenting at the Greenhaven Road Partners Fund annual dinner.
$GOGO provides internet on commercial airplanes (delta) and private planes. Historically the commercial business torched money and the private planes printed money.
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Really respect Jeremy Deal, and agree, Brookfield is better than this.
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STOXX saw card trading on their platform up 4000% $CLCT is in a perfect position to build a marketplace for cards. They have trust and can remove friction from process - Nat Turner should pay more than $75.
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$CLBT reports and algos cannot figure out what to do – has not traded. Let me help you algos out – this is not a $7 company – profitable, just grew revenue 26% and ARR 37% and trading sub 5X this years revenue.
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Don’t see this everyday, $APPS CEO at Needham talking about their SingleTap product “we took this from a seven figure business on a yearly basis to a seven figure business on a quarterly basis....I'm pleased to report today we're talking about seven figures on a WEEKLY basis.”
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If you are in the Munger cult - there is gold in here - takes 1 hour+
Charlie Munger 1 of 22 via
@YouTube
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$PAR is a "jockey bet" - Sometimes teams of talented individuals exceed your expectations. Winning Burger King as a POS customer is one of those times. Hats off to
@SavneetS
and the PAR team. Thank you.
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Will Restaurant Brands $QSR select Brink for POS? Would be step function increase in revenue for $PAR ($40M+ in ARR) Burger King + Tim Horton’s + Popeyes= PAR going higher. They are already working with Data Central .....
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Is $CLBT Cellebrite trying to run the Vista Equity Partners playbook to improve profitability while staying in the public markets? New Executive Chairman is from…. Vista Equity Partners
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Here is a link to panel in Omaha there are some bright folks up there
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This is what being 4 steps ahead of the sell side looks like $SPHR. Sellside covering 25 companies, Kevin has skin in the game - the difference is obvious.
Key parts from the $SPHR conference call:
Question:
Hey Jim, good morning. A couple of a sticking with the unchartered territory theme from Brandon as we as we track the business this year in the early quarters, how should we think about the amount of revenue you need to
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The remaining business aviation co has approximately $150M in normalized EBITDA. 38% of the float is short $GOGO and the bankruptcy scenario is off the table. We can argue about the multiple of EBITDA the business aviation business is worth, but let some shorts cover first.
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Barnes and Noble Education $BNED goes down every day. Maybe it should. They are in the process of transitioning their business to First Day Complete. For schools that have transitioned to first day complete there has been revenue increases of 90% and gross profit increases of
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$ESTC net revenue retention continues to be above 130% - the guidance never made sense to me.
@OphirGottlieb
This $estc call is wildly bullish.. Every analyst will raise targets tomorrow. Bank of America analyst just asked “have u just learned to operate in this environment & are just throwing out caveats because you’re embarrassed at how well you’re doing?” Real question
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16/ if the runway is as long as I think it is and the team is as good as I think it is – I will continue to sleep well at night. I guess we will know in 5 years if the math mattered. Long $PAR Long
@SavneetS
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@jeremyndsu
We bought more in the 4th quarter, I have spoken to Pembroke, the price I am tendering for is unlikely to have a 7 as the first digit $CLCT
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This looks like an incredibly healthy business to me - I guess that is what makes markets.
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Our Partners Fund is invested with Adam, he is very sharp, and has now fired a second shot in fight with $SIC will be interesting to see how it plays out....
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