Ophir Gottlieb
@OphirGottlieb
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Unpaid Verified. CEO @CMLviz . Contrib @Reuters @Factset @Refinitiv . Stanford Trained Mathematician. Former Option Market Maker; Hedge Fund Manager. AI/ML.
Los Angeles, CA
Joined December 2009
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Russia's second largest oil company has broken ranks with President Vladimir Putin.
Lukoil, which produces more than 2% of the world's crude oil and employs over 100,000 people, has called for an end to Russia's war in Ukraine.
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1. Perspective is a super power.
2. Lack of perspective is a super weakness.
3. A lack of perspective turns investors into idiots.
4. When other investors turn into idiots, the ones with perspective profit.
5. So, do that. Profit.
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CML Pro:
The finest stock research you'll find -- with an audited performance record and access to one-on-one CEO interviews.
Trade Machine:
For option traders -- it's time to win. Take success into your own hands.
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Wells Fargo tells customers it’s shuttering all personal lines of credit
-
'With its latest move, Wells Fargo warned customers that the account closures “may have an impact on your credit score,” according to a Frequently Asked Questions...'
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My portfolio sucks right now. But it has sucked many times for me over decades. It stops sucking and it actually gets pretty fantastic after. It's rather a pleasure.
Until then, it's the suck part.
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Run a mile in 4min 36 sec.
Then do it 25x again, in a row.
Kelvin Kiptum just ran a record marathon time of 2:00:35 in Chicago.
He beat Eliud Kipchoge’s 2:01:09 time by 34 secs! And was only 35 secs from sub- 2 hours.
The Kenyan star is only 23-years old and trains by himself with no coach.
Unbelievable.
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Europe is expected to start stabilizing soon, the World Health Organization said, as Italy saw the slowest rate of new cases in almost two weeks.
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$NVDA is now a 40-bagger for me. I saw underappreciation, but not like this. Remarkable founder CEO.
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Hotel in Las Vegas is more than half empty. I asked the front desk if the coronavirus is even a thing here.
She said ppl are cancelling bookings as far out as July and specifically saying it's the coronavirus.
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A short thread 🧵
There many green shoots pointing to disinflation.
Here are 12 points I see, in these categories.
* Trucking rates
* Shipping rates
* Port congestion
* Housing prices
* Manufacturing demand / supply
* The *not* "Great Resignation"
Let's start...
/1
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I have hundreds of trolls saved as snapshots wrt $ROKU.
I always thought, "when it hits $225, I'll repost them to remind people how perspective works."
I just don't care anymore.
Congrats to the longs and CML Pro.
Onward.
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$PINS basically pulled a $ZM.
These are not normal numbers.
A company can't grow revenue 76% with Adj EBITDA at 42%.
That's not supposed to exist at scale.
... but...
$PINS then guided to 70%+ growth for next quarter as well.
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Left Image: Steve Bannon openly says that he created the platform for the Alt-right.
Right Image: What the Alt-right believes.
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❤❤❤❤
This is Marty. He heard you needed some help shoveling the driveway. 14/10 thank you so much Marty
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Looks like $AAPL has actually taken $FB $TWTR $PINS $SNAP business.
Incredible.
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None of us get out of this alive so we might as well help and love each other while we're here.
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OK. Senate turned.
Back to the market.
We could slide for a bit.
Jan 6 is drama from EC certification.
Maintain perspective.
Parties don't (and never have) made a long term impact on the market and every thematic we follow is thriving and will continue too.
Onward.
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* Netflix cuts slightly more than 1% of full-time staff.
* Wayfair confirmed a 90-day corporate hiring freeze.
* Coinbase slowing hiring given market conditions.
* Twitter, Meta Platforms, and Amazon pausing hiring.
It's painful, but Fed action is working.
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Streaming. Video. Also. Called. OTT. Will. Be. Larger. Than. People. Expect.
Long $ROKU
Long $CURI
Long $TTD
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1/n
This is a thread for long term investors.
I've said this before but perhaps it bears repeating.
I'll use $TWLO as an example but there are many others like $AMZN, $SHOP, etc.
Focus less on TWLO and more on perspective (your edge = alpha).
...
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$FSLY Just got off the phone with CEO.
My take away is "wow."
Also, if anyone out there tells you that Fastly is just another CDN or that "edge" is a made up marketing term, run screaming and block that resource.
There is wrong and there is ignorant.
That's simply ignorance.
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We are pleased to announce 'tear sheet.'
Free.
No ads.
No log in.
No download.
It covers the guts of a company.
News
Technicals
Analysts
Valuation metrics
Fin statistics
Insider transactions
... and more.
Here is $FSLY (for example)
👀👀👇
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$AAPL... wow
Apple CFO Says:
* Seeing No Demand Slowdown For iPhones
* Expect Revenue Growth To Accelerate In Current Quarter Vs June Quarter Rate
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Dear
@Netflix
@reedhastings
,
Buy
@roku
.
You own 50% of streaming time, already.
Now go get the other 50%, punch
@google
and
@amazon
in the mouth, and become the next mega cap.
My very best,
Ophir
$NFLX $ROKU
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$AAPL$GOOGL $AMZN $FB Tech shares fall as U.S. finally admits it is investigating Big Tech for antitrust
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If you want to own a stock for a five year investment (or more) and you thought about it for $50 but now it's at $57 and you hesitate...
... in 5-years you will not remember the difference between $50 or $57 (for good or bad).
But you will remember not taking a position.
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$PINS BTW, it's going higher. This company will be measured in triple digit billions. They won.
(very long)
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$FSLY A mistake I made in real time:
* Saw rumors
* Wanted a small bet
* Bid $0.45 for 90 strike calls expiring today.
* Order for 1,000 calls scared market off.
* Rather than just bid higher, I waited.
I cost myself $500,000 in one hour.
It happens to all of us.
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1/n
$PINS
Q4 revenue grew 76% year over year to $706 million.
2020 revenue grew 48% year over year to $1,693 million.
Global Monthly Active Users (MAUs) grew 37% year over year to 459 million.
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$ROKU is a $500 stock. It doesn't matter, a bear is a bear. But enough already.
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Speak to any (very) large used car dealer and you will hear the same - an absolute vortex of deflation is coming to used car prices.
Manheim index just showed largest MoM drop in used car values since April 2020, but that's for August... it hasn't even really started yet.
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Too much selling. I'm calling bullshit on the market, lol.
Technology is still absolutely the fastest growing, most deflationary space and the next 10 yrs are brighter than the last (and they were bright).
It's bad.
But it gets better.
And the better is better than the bad.
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Stock TradeMachine members we just sent:
Setting 20 alerts in 8 minutes ahead of earnings season.
Watch:
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$AMD
$AMZN
$DDOG
$FB
$FSLY
$GOOGL
$INTC
$NFLX
$NVDA
$TSLA
$ZM
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$AYX What are people going to say when it returns to 40% growth?
$FSLY TikTok doesn't matter. If you own this company it's not for a customer; it's for all customers.
Bleeding edge companies choose it for a reason, and they will continue to do so.
Long both.
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$NVDA Nvidia Just Passed Buffett's Berkshire to Become the
7th-Largest U.S. Stock
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As earnings continue to roll out for all companies, Imma say ppl are gonna look back at $PINS results and 70%+ guidance for Q1 and realize it wasn't just outstanding results, but superior to 99% of all companies in and out of its cohort.
Long stock
Long calls
Long call spreads
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$JMIA When the thrill seekers get out for their 20% win, it gives us a chance to continue to add and look for our 2,000% win.
Stay patient.
Maintain perspective.
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The institutions I watch:
Abdiel
BallieGifford
Coatue
D1
Dragoneer
Durable Capital
Hill house
Lone Pine
Melvin
Point 72
SAC
Silver lake
Third Point
Tiger Global
Whale Rock
Viking
And now you can too.
For free.
👀👀👇
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I think there are many underappreciated growth companies, still, in this market.
They are where no one is looking, which is why it's exactly where I'm looking.
2021 will be about growth that hasn't begun, unrecognized opportunity, thematics that have yet to begin.
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We don't usually think about it but we should now...
...the characteristics of a random process matter and why one bad kind may be here.
Let's have a chat about why it's relevant to the current macro environment, inflation, and more.
Off we go...
/1
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If you're betting against the United States economy, you're gonna lose, and you're gonna lose huge.
Sell what you must, rebalance, hedge, de-risk as appropriate, but...
... If you're betting against the United States economy, you're gonna lose, and you're gonna lose huge.
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We have released our scanner for free.
Retweet if you think it's helpful.
Here is one: 8 companies
* Market Cap < $100B
* Revenue > $200M
* Fwd Rev Growth 1yr > 30%
* Fwd Rev Growth 2yr > 30%
* Gross Margin % > 70
* Operating Margin > -30%
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$FSLY Signal Sciences acquisition thrusts Fastly forward not just in its own Secure
@edge
ambitions but also in a stand-alone security capacity.
$28M in revenue is > 10% of Fastly’s revenue and growing at 100%.
85% GM is higher than Fastly’s.
Under appreciated move.
(Long)
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I think I found another Top Pick.
Will review and release after earnings season.
Huge potential, wildly undervalued, and very much DX.
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Own something that sells ads. Whatever it is. There is continually increasing business strength.
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Sometimes it's like, "oh nice, I did it right w these stocks."
But really, it's like, "a monkey f***ing a football could have looked like genius in this market."
It's a perspective.
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A thread...
$ROKU What
@Roku
CEO Anthony Wood is doing with
@TheRokuChannel
is a display of some of the highest business acumen in practice that media has seen in a generation.
It's absolutely next level and still a decade ahead of the rest.
/1
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We need these sell off days so badly.
This is good.
Let's see IPOs up 100% in two days back down, a lot. A lot, a lot.
The bull persists if and only if we see selling.
Without it, for extended periods, like *months*, we will see 2000 again.
We don't want this 👇👇👇
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$DOCN I think DigitalOcean is a $200 stock in less than five-years.
Today is 8-9-2021.
The stock price is $53.63.
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Important not to panic about waves of selling after waves of buying.
This is what 2021 will be.
A narrative of fear, or reinflation -- all year -- all the time.
Perspective is a super power.
A lack of perspective is a super weakness.
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$AAPL It’s all but confirmed now: Apple is working on its very own electric vehicle, no matter what the company says, and the debut is expected to take place in 2025 at the earliest.
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$PINS So, Pinterest’s blow out earnings, meh, but a report of an account of an a approach from $MSFT a month ago, now that's news!
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$VIX up 42% in a day is not normal.
Someone look up the largest % gains ever. This is odd.
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@CarlosL98728494
@BrianFeroldi
@saxena_puru
@FromValue
Put fin statements down, they're known, offer no alpha for discovering new company.
Put scanners, charts down.
Figure out:
1. What is changing
2. What is not changing
3. Is there an underappreciation for either
Do that well, move on
#3
, you're the best investor in the world
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1/n
$ROKU
Total net revenue grew 58% YoY to $1,778 million;
Platform revenue increased 71% YoY to $1,268 million;
Gross profit was up 63% YoY to $808 million;
Roku added 14.3 million incremental active accounts in 2020 to reach 51.2 million at year end;
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$PINS
* Two years ago, consensus estimate for 2021 revenue was $1.8B
* Today estimate for same period is 2.6B, 44% higher
Not growth, estimate changes.
This is what underappreciated looks like; discombobulated view of growth.
Pinterest is still underappreciated, IMHO.
Long
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$ROKU working on e-commerce.
Every second of TV watched will stream.
Every dollar of ad spend will go to streaming.
The CTV ad TAM is not limited to linear TV ad spend (which is monstrous).
It's TV + Internet.
Everyone is a target, even $FB.
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CML Pro members, I have concluded my conversation with $FSLY CEO and will try to deliver the report this weekend.
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$XIV The Astonishing Story Behind What Really Happened to XIV
via
@CMLviz
-
@WSJ
,
@CNBCFastMoney
,
@jimcramer
still don't get it. So now, you can.
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F* this.
There are actually quality growth names out there with absolutely reasonable valuations that are cash flow positive (they do exist!), and they are getting pummeled too.
Too much selling.
I expect (hope?) Jan inflation data (in February) to be better than feared.
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Sideways trading since the tech correction is constructive.
2021 won't be like 2020.
The moves won't be as fun, as scary, nor as often.
Now is the time to research.
Market moves will come, but knowing what to do with them starts when there are no market moves, right now.
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1/n thread
$ROKU
HUGE NUMBERS
* EPS $0.09 Beats $(0.40) Estimate
* Sales $451.70M Beat $366.34M Estimate
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This is not 2020.
There is no potential global killer.
We need selling, as I have tweeted dozens of times, but this is not the end of times.
Companies I know, CEOs I know, see growth, rebounds in economy.
This will get bad.
This will get better after it gets bad.
3-5-21
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Can you imagine if this new 5 minute COVID test the FDA approved which requires no lab actually works?
I mean, what a shot in the arm for the economy.
Want to eat in?
Want to fly?
Want to got to a movie?
Want an Uber?
Take a 5 min test and wait to the left.
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I'm not crying, you're crying.
Watch the moment a British retired Royal Marine suffering from degenerative Parkinson’s Disease had his world changed forever
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This will be two tweets
1/2
I'm mustering the strength to do a webinar (for anyone, for free) on speculating with options.
A long call or long put is at best 5% of professional option trading, but true speculation is far more aggressive and risk conscious *at the same time.*
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Friends,
I wish you a fabulous Christmas. For those that have felt great pain in 2020, I'm so very sorry.
I believe it will get better after it gets bad, but for those that 'better' isn't good enough due to the immense pain, my heart and thoughts are with you even in that.
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$TWTR not that impressive.
$FB missed very slightly on MAU and DAU.
$PINS the market has over reacted or even misreacted.
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$PINS This is an $80 stock.
I'm long stock and calls.
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I'm not crying. You're crying.
His 16-year-old son died in a car accident. They donated his organs.
The recipient of the heart sent the father a gift...
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A reckoning is coming soon.
Choosing stocks based on some sort of a scan will fail, IMHO.
Looking at prior growth to forecast the future in some areas of tech will mislead.
Alpha will only be had by finding underappreciated growth and that is found in underappreciated changes.
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Please feel free to use this for any symbol; sharing is helping others.
This page delivers $0 in revenue for us.
We built it for you, bc the retail investor is the hero.
Working a job *and* then doing research. It's incomprehensible what you guys do for your families.
❤💪
We are pleased to announce 'tear sheet.'
Free.
No ads.
No log in.
No download.
It covers the guts of a company.
News
Technicals
Analysts
Valuation metrics
Fin statistics
Insider transactions
... and more.
Here is $FSLY (for example)
👀👀👇
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35
279
$ROKU $GOOGL
Google blinked. No idea why.
Or, I have an idea, but I didn't think Roku was that powerful.
They are.
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I wish you all a fabulous 2021.
I hope it is your best year.
For those of you in pain, I empathize with you and truly believe it will get better.
Be brilliant in 2021; a human being so kind and loving as to influence others to do the same. ❤❤❤
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Feels like there will be selling off the highs in the middle of the day and the last hour will tell us how much conviction institutional money has right now on the long tech side.
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CPI annualized over the last 5-months is 2.5%.
Dec is going to be below that, so...
... CPI annualized over the last six months (including Dec) is at Fed target (2%).
Just bc it isn't transitory doesn't make it 1970s entrenched.
Please don't tell the Fed.
Data via
@cnbc
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A sea of red today at the open.
It may hurt, but we need a lot more of this. A "February fumble" is OK.
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This was powerful when I first heard it:
"Don't take criticism from people you would never go to for advice."
(Source: Internet meme 🤷♂️)
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Right now everything (in tech) gets digested as negative.
This is what bear markets do.
But then negative narrative quiets, and the "it's fallen enough" narrative grows.
So, now is bad. But then it gets better after the bad.
It's a repeating cycle and it's a very good one.👇
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I feel like $AAPL should up on $FB news.
AAPL will be one of the kings of advertising. Super nice of AAPL to let FB, SNAP, TWTR build the business and then to take it.
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Had a typo... take 2:
Comparing Jan 2020 to Jan 2022
EV:sales (forward)
$AAPL $AMZN $GOOGL $CRWD $DDOG $NET
$SE $MELI ... etc
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Have a great weekend, friends.
I wish you all peaceful days and nights.
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Thread
$ROKU
$NFLX is down bc missed subs number.
If anything, this is good news for Roku.
Netflix is facing serious competition and all of that competition is on Roku (Disney+, Hulu, HBO Max, etc).
More streaming options more more streamers...
/1
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Thread
This is how negotiations work. It's game theory, specifically it's called "anchoring."
* Biden puts out a $2.7T infra proposal, knowing that won't fly, but in a hope to get lawmakers attached to the $2.7T number. The idea is "how much lower than $2.7T will it be."
/1
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I think we can now safely say that $SNAP wasn't reporting a company specific issue. It was reporting an economy wide issue.
$AAPL $AMZN $FB $TWTR $SHOP would agree.
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$U
@unity
move w Weta is a generational move; it's just not understood by algos.
This is a remarkable benefit to Unity and opens up its market for artists by 100x -1000x.
This is very forward looking and I believe will be praised in a few years as a total change in landscape.
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$ROKU five months... company didn't change, stock price changed.
Either investors have intellectual capacity to focus on businesses rather than stock prices or not.
I call it perspective.
The difference is wealth.
The market pays for intellect and penalizes lack of it.
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Market is holding it together. This is nice.
Selling but not panicking. Let's get a couple months of this and watch our economy bounce back and the virus' hold on humanity weaken.
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$PINS Something I shared with CML Pro yesterday.
A thread
/1
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