Grant Stenger (hiring)
@GrantStenger
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Kinetic CEO | @janestreetgroup @polychain @numerai
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As liquidations rip through crypto markets and macro forecasts look grim, it’s a good time to ask: what is the point of crypto? What are we trying to do here?
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Anyone trying to increase our rate of acceleration is a jerk, technically speaking.
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@iwontoffendyou
i will not get nerd sniped
i will not get nerd sniped
i will n…ah i got this
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Open source: Web3 TikTok could be provably free of foreign spyware. Open-sourced Twitter could empower users to design their own feed algorithms. Web3 Snapchat could remove the satanic newsfeed. Down with mind-numbing ad-based revenue models!
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There’s so much to build! If you’re looking to work on some of web3’s hardest problems with the world’s most exceptional people, Principia is hiring. Feel free to message me! Details and fundraising announcement coming soon. Stay tuned. 🔭
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Ownership: Web3 TikTok/YouTube would make creators the owners of their platform, not merely an exploited labor class. Similarly, Web3 Uber would enable early drivers and riders to earn tokenized equity in their business.
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Crypto enables at least seven game-changing unlocks that make it worth pursuing in any market. Let’s discuss.
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Democratization: In Web3, rather than having the same five Sand Hill Road investors, startups can be globally owned by five hundred thousand token holders. Web3 founders don’t have to come from the same few elite universities. Meritocracy could prevail.
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Permissionlessness: Bank the unbanked. Unable to receive financial services because of safety concerns, lack of infrastructure, or other discrimination? A crypto lender somewhere in the world could help you become financially secure. Anyone can participate from anywhere.
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A real life application of ergodic theory.
Suppose you’re a startup founder, and every funding round you choose the strategy of spending 100% of your capital so you either blow up or 10x, say with 50% probabilities.
You as an individual experience the time-average. That is,
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Privacy: Web3 browsers would allow you to surf cookie-free (despite how cute surfing with cookies may sound). ZKPs permit your bartender to serve you without seeing your weight, address, or donor status. Crypto creditors can loan without seeing any of your specific purchases.
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I love how unsexy crypto is right now. At a recent founder event, 19 out of 20 were building in AI, and I was the lone crypto survivor. There's still so much to build. Bullish.
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Trustless coordination: Smart contracts allow for trustless coordination through immutable unstoppable global computers like Ethereum. This empowers decentralized crowdfunding and novel forms of governance.
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@alex_peys
The numpy comment here is ridiculous and your approach is more mathematically elegant in my opinion.
I can't not mention that in practice BFS/DFS is a much better solution though. It's O(E+V), so worst case O(E^2) with a complete graph and it's super efficient with sparse graphs
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Adventure isn't just about climbing mountains. This page by Leibnitz is also what exploring new uncharted frontiers can look like.
A handwritten page by Leibnitz with recursive sequences (nested square roots), integrals (he introduced the symbol) and cartesian coordinates (which at the time looked like alien technology).
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I had a wild Friday night… extending Merton’s binary optimal consumption model.
Turns out that given two independent geometric Brownian motion based assets and a constant relative risk-aversion utility function, the optimal allocation between those two assets is the following:
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I can’t wait for the day when insurance is a sexy industry.
No one cares more about you living a safe, healthy life than your family and your insurance company.
Optimal insurance will subsidize gym memberships, fund self-driving, deescalate riots, depollute our air, and more.
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(Guy uses quantum field theory to explain middle school physics.)
I was always bothered by Fermat's principle that "light chooses the shortest (temporal) path."
A photon can't perform computation over all possible paths... So what happens *locally*?
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I’d love to see more adventurers.
Top earners could take months off every year to go on archeological expeditions, make incredible art, explore genomics, etc.
It seems like we forget why we wanted to be financially secure in the first place.
Let's be radically free.
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I spent all day on an important research problem and I just cracked it. There's no better feeling in the world.
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This is why advice from great startup mentor-investors like Paul Graham suggesting “be a cockroach” is valuable. If you make sure you don’t die and continue creating value, the time average limit flips from zero to up-and-to-the-right. Switching to a strategy that either 5x’s or
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Automated software engineering for all.
@factoryAI_
has substantially improved our development time.
Absolute dream team.
If you’re looking for the next big thing, this is it.
Dropping out of my PhD to start Factory with Eno was the best decision I’ve ever made.
We dream of a world where software engineering itself is an accessible, scalable commodity. If you’re as excited about this future as we are — and ready to work relentlessly to get there —
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One of our Ukrainian engineers just apologized for the air raid sirens during our eow eng sync.
Another evacuated his family to Croatia during Christmas week and was still one of our top committers.
TechTok corporate culture is blind to how hardcore the rest of the world is.
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Imagine Pokémon GO except users clean up their cities, coordinate massive social events, and make beautiful public art.
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Two more invisible ways inflation steals from you and I.
1) We pay capital gains tax on investment returns that are directly attributable to inflation. All assets nominally went up 5%? We all pay cap gains on those phantom earnings.
2) Inflation causes “bracket creep”. Not all
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2024 Interview Question: What AI tools have you experimented with for augmenting your workflow?
It shows genuine curiosity, and there can be quite large returns to being fast to adopt powerful new technologies.
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Where are the crypto libertarians? The anarchists? The ideologues? Who is best holding onto the original ethos, and who are the current frontiersmen pioneering new crypto philosophy?
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@PtrPomorski
Doctors [Quant PhDs] Hate Him! Find Out the One Simple Trick They Don’t Want You to Know!
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You can learn everything you need to know by just reading books with Principia in the title
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if you’ve ever been made fun of for your prominent ears, know that those are attacker ears.
ears on the side are for prey who have to sense threats behind them. you chase your prey, those are predator ears. never forgot this
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Classical music is not for old people. Our grandparents were born 250 years after Bach vs our 300 years. We can reclaim it as ours. The era of technoclassical bangers is about to begin.
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Age doesn’t matter in crypto, it’s the great equalizer. It moves so fast that there are no head starts. Read the papers, write the code, add real value.
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We put my dog down today.
Not because it was cosmically his time to go,
but because we didn’t know how to stop the bleeding in his spleen.
Think about the ways that you and your loved ones could die,
crack open a textbook, caffeinate, and innovate.
There are lives to save.
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Living near a road is poisoning you, and electric vehicles are the antidote.
Let’s talk about why...
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The QWERTY keyboard in your hands is a physical reminder that products don’t necessarily win from efficiency. Often being fast to market and establishing powerful feedback loops can cause a less optimized product to dominate.
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Eventually we’ll pop a pill for any desired emotional state.
Imagine confidence, curiosity, or gratitude on demand.
This already exists in an imprecise way with caffeine to work and alcohol/thc to relax but will one day become extremely specific and powerful.
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Celebrating birthdays is a way we simulate to what extent we’d help a friend in a time of need.
I thought bdays were a bit arbitrary until I realized this framing.
Be sure to celebrate your friends when their days come around!
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Be careful open sourcing your mind.
There’s a major impulse in the e/acc community towards mind uploading. Give it your journal entries, your icloud photos, imessages, etc and build a model that speaks just like you.
If you build something that takes exactly the same actions
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Harvard CS major here.
@GoldmanSachs
or
@McKinsey
before I start
@GSB
?
@Google
APM last summer really convinced me that
#ThielFellowship
>
#RhodesScholarship
, ya know?
Looking for incredible mentors to help find my passion. 🙏🏼
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If anyone knows Ed Thorp, it would be one of the greatest joys of my life to meet him. He has been a hero of mine since childhood.
I've never shot my shot like this, but life's too short. If you have any leads, please let me know!
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Telling vc/founder friends you’re “in between projects” is like telling your grandma you’re single. I’m still fishin’ Memaw, great grandkiddos are on the way I promise. 🤝
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Turns out crypto's not just a ZIRP phenomenon. This cycle's going to be wild.
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@3blue1brown
I was thinking about a very similar question earlier this year. The idea that light “chooses” the shortest path through various media always itched my brain a bit uncomfortably. I’m curious if anyone has thoughts on how to properly resolve this.
(Guy uses quantum field theory to explain middle school physics.)
I was always bothered by Fermat's principle that "light chooses the shortest (temporal) path."
A photon can't perform computation over all possible paths... So what happens *locally*?
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Dogcoins are the epitome of “do you want to be right or do you want to make money”
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friends are horcruxes, each stores a piece of our soul
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i had a dream last night about ricci curvature and levi-civita connections and now i finally understand big E’s field equations deep in my soul
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When we consistently see 100 sigma events, it should be obvious that the problem is in our maps, not the territory.
Events like this *aren't* improbable. They're improbable with respect to our models.
Source:
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In 2021 we're going *tycoon mode*.
So great seeing you
@michlimlim
!
If anyone's ever in LA come through and get inspired. 🙌
To build the future, there are more ways than just the Founder mode, i.e. to start one company.
There is also the Tycoon mode (h/t:
@c3kel
) where you chase capital opportunities from multiple streams. You may then reinvest the capital in causes and assets you care about.
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If you thought SBF’s Kimchi Premium spread was wide, Ibn Battuta reports Turkish traders buying horses for 1 dinar in India and selling them for 200 dinar in Han China. Absolute legends.
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The marketplace of ideas is efficient enough that when optimizing for pure correctness it’s unwise to deviate much from consensus. It’s hard to say something simultaneously novel and true.
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Volatility drag is not real. Long live Nepers.
Some of the world’s largest asset managers meaningfully adjust their investment policies to reduce volatility drag.
What is volatility drag? When you model asset returns as geometric brownian motion with arithmetic mean % return μ
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Studying great people should be for hypothesis generation not immediate mimicry.
The wealthiest person in a small town might be a powerball lottery winner but that doesn’t mean you should buy lottery tickets.
For every billionaire recounting the times they nearly lost it all,
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Someone please build a chrome extension that makes all digital text context-rich with some Wikipedia-style popups. I’d love to be able to select text and in the margin see more explanation and other relevant resources to explore.
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For common needs, ETH's cost is too immense,
The crypto kings shill their loot in defense,
But in hushed murmurs, what everyone knows,
A silent truth, "The emperor has no clothes."
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@kaiynne
@synthetix_io
"Synthetix was one of the few protocols in 2017 to say, we give zero fucks about the regulatory implications of a revenue-generating token, we are going to build what we think makes sense and if we get thrown in jail for it c’est la vie."
This is pretty metal. Kain's hardcore.
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I want my future kids to write monthly “investor updates”.
We need OKRs and KPIs in this house.
Goal setting is a key piece of being a live player. Make a plan, execute on it.
It would honestly be a cool way to chronicle your life too.
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Modern email's not permissionless, trustless, or even really private (often jokingly called "evidence-mail").
Who's building private messaging on-chain?
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"He is a second Dirac, only this time human."
Oppenheimer's letter of recommendation for Richard Feynman
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Once we get good enough at information embedding, I’d love to experience text at arbitrary levels of compression. We try to provide two levels of compression with abstracts and full prints, but I’d love to have access to 100, 1000, and 10000 word explanations of anything.
Most academic papers are like 3x as long as they need to be, right?
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Prediction: Reinforcement learning makes a massive comeback in 2024. Crack Sutton and Barto, rewatch CS234. This is the year of agents.
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“wordcells worldwide rekt by LLMs, guess art wasn’t hard after all,” gloated the shape rotator after getting mogged by ML in every technical discipline for literal decades
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You get a positive covid test. Do you have covid?
Well, it’s more complicated than it needs to be, but that’s not your fault.
TL;DR: a 1% prior goes to ~53% of having covid and thinking in odds help us lots.
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An inspiring conclusion of Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage is that *anyone* can add value through trade.
Even if you're the worst at every single task, by doing what you're relatively good at, you can still help society and put food on your table.
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You can short a stock to zero and LOSE MONEY, a surprising finance lesson.
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I often hear the critique that “Audible’s not *real* reading.”
Let’s not forget the printing press was a ~15th century technology. Oral teaching’s older than civilization.
We’re built first to listen and then to read.
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The 21st century version of “a man is not wealthy if he cannot raise an army of his own expense” is…
“a person is not wealthy if they cannot bankroll their own engineering team.”
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They’re right, I am excited about
@readme_media
. Decentralized incentive-aligned wikipedia is one of the many examples of web3 business models that will outcompete web2 models in this new cycle
New project:
@readme_media
(follower 1195)
Bio:Pen to profit. Decentralized encyclopedia, where knowledge meets earnings. $READ fair launch: January 3, 2024. Telegram:
alert follower:
@GrantStenger
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There is $100m and a Grammy waiting for anyone who properly applies latent diffusion models to spectrograms.
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Felt decent about my chess tactics rating and then saw my older brother's 😩
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San Francisco can be understood as a frontier town. It's the edge of civilization, a boundary place where you can do anything. The trillions of dollars of novel tech that's been built here has the same sociological origin as the deviance. The spirit of the Gold Rush lives on.
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Reminder: Associative models can only reveal associations.
All the deep learning in the world will only reveal correlations. Causal understanding relies on *empirical tests*.
Reinforcement learning is essentially the scientific method and will likely be required for strong AI.
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Unbothered. Veggietales hat on. In my lane. Trading checks with my bro. Flourishing.
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I’m doing a deep dive in value investing this week.
The syllabus is mainly Graham and Dodd, Buffett-Munger, Marks, and Klarman so far.
Please send recommendations!
(Always looking for highest return on time and most orthogonal to conventional wisdom.)
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Fidelity’s BTC ETF index recalculates in 15 second increments as the volume-weighted median price of their Coin Metrics reference feeds over a rolling 60 minute window.
What games emerge? You can get faster than 15 second BTC price updates from spot feeds and you’ll certainly
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The UFO news was a good litmus test to see who accepts information on pure authority and who trusts their own reasoning abilities.
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I have 19 more clubhouse invites if anyone wants one hmu 🤙
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Unironically jpegs are a more honest signal than watches. Fake rolexes abound, cryptography solves this, check the chain bro
Selling legible status is a valid service, that’s why Bernard Arnault is the world’s 2nd richest person
Calling
@kevinsimler
and
@robinhanson
for comment
financial nihilism:
money isn’t real
“instrinsic value” is a boomer scam
if a watch can be worth $1m so can my picture of a monkey, unironically
work has nothing to do with value
capitalism is jungle-level survival of the fittest with extra steps
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I’m excited for the flow of donated funds to charities to become publicly visible and verifiable to all on the unstoppable Ethereum blockchain. 🚂💨
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I love this. Also reading is just holding dead wood and hallucinating. The dead speak to us through these bizarre symbols. Pretty incredible. Shocking how low bandwidth this is though.
@grant_stenger
Language is basically a co-evolving living super-human entity. We make words and words make us. Words are tested in battle every day. Old words die, new words born. It's changing, shifting in every moment and us along with it. It's not clear who comes from what. It's symbiosis.
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This is a great example of Wittgenstein’s Ruler.
Sometimes a measurement provides more information about the ruler than about the object measured.
This ranking tells me nothing new about Harvard, but it gives us a great deal of information about the criteria of the measurer.
Which university has the best graduates?
A new paper using an earnings-based measure of graduate quality (qⱼ) provided the answer: the top of the list is dominated by Indian universities.
What about Harvard? Rank
#26
.
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What happens when the “Bezos Economy” continues to bring costs of normal goods down and the “Arnault Economy” brings costs of Veblen goods up?
Great essay by the always thoughtful
@whrobbins
. Give it a read!
New Post - The Veblen Economy
Global wealth has doubled so far in the 21st Century.
To understand how leisure and status games will eat "utilitarian" sectors like finance and transportation, look to Thorstein Veblen's 1899 work.
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In the Deep Blue days, no one thought chess engines could beat a world class player because it was trained on human-generated games. Then self-play unlocked AlphaZero’s superhuman performance.
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Reading is like playing an instrument or skating. Trying to read Joyce on a whim is like trying to play Liszt w/o practicing or landing a 900 w/o learning how to ollie.
Don’t be discouraged by hard texts. It’s not like watching TV, regular deliberate practice is required.
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Choose your quest 🧙🏻♂️
History is defined by top players pursuing good quests.
Today, we are in a crisis. Silicon Valley's best — our top operators, exited founders, and investors — are almost all on bad quests.
@traestephens
and I write about quests in
@PirateWires
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