Garic Moran
@GaricMoran
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Moran Tice Cap Mgmt - RIA - Precious Metals Equities Specialists. Tweets are not investment advice: do your own due diligence. 37 years of macro investing!
Highlands, NC
Joined March 2016
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1000 PHD's in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD's in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates!
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We now have Canada freezing bank accounts, US freezing international reserve assets, & the LME cancelling trades that hurt their brokers. Things are moving fast; the rule of law is breaking down in our financial system: not good.
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My friend Nassim thinks if everyone wears a mask, there is a chance we could solve the pandemic. Please everyone cover your face in public, what is the downside?
@nntaleb
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Can someone please explain to me how the FED sells a Trillion Dollars worth of mortgages at a 20% loss?
Please retweet until we find one person who can explain how the FED can take actual principle losses greater than their networth & the financial system continues to function?
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@elerianm
8.3% budget deficit with 124% debt to GDP & massive unfunded liabilities does not deserve downgrade?
Then what does?
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Physical Gold prices closed 6% above NY/London last night in China; China is the largest producer & consumer of Gold in the world. This large premium means Gold will flow to BRICS + OPEC. The highest premium ever is being paid 3 weeks after OPEC joined Brics; the odds that China
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The FED is trapped; they cannot fight inflation without blowing up financial markets. The only question is when do investors begin to move money from negative real yield Treasuries & money markets to Gold?
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Yesterday, Gold experienced its worse day in 7 years. Wall Street & Financial Media would like you to believe this occurred do to an improving economy. The 10 Year Note rose from last weeks lows of .5% to .65%. The $ rallied all of 1%; make no mistake about it, this was an...
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Spot Gold is closing $1,000 above our average all-in-sustaining cost for our producing Gold miners; this is equal to the highest margin I have seen in 25 years of investing in this sector. If Gold stays where it is or goes higher, quality miners are ridiculously undervalued.
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Bloomberg reporting that Bank of International Settlements has bought 1mm ounces of Gold, potentially for Central Bank clients. If true, this is big news:
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Tesla reported $2.9B in operating cash flow through the first 3 quarters of 2020, market cap is $668B; Barrick Gold reported $3.7B in operating cash flow during this same period, market cap is $40B. Producing Gold Miners are ridiculously undervalued vs. all other companies:
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Everyone on planet knows FEd will resume QE once the stock market falls. They are now in their 12th month of yapping a big talk & walking a slow walk. If they actually do what they are saying: 1929 is on the table. J. Powell now has as much credibility as Chicken Little.
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Gold is up 55% from 4 years ago; during this time the All-In-Cost to mine Gold from our average miner has risen from $912 to $1245. Operating margins have risen from $403 an ounce to $805 an ounce; anyone fundamentally bearish on Precious Metals Equities does not know what they
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They will never report inflation. We are in a Banana Republic if you have not figured it out, yet. (I apologize to Bananas)
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China is bidding for any Gold Mine for sale; this morning Shandong offers $300MM-AUD for Cardinal Resources. The West African shovel ready deposit, has a $1B-US Net Present Value @ $1700 Gold. I guess only the Chinese understand the cheapest Gold on the planet is in the Ground?
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WOWWWWW! The FED has stopped reporting weekly money supply figures! This is beyond messed up; Congress needs to impeach Jerome Powell immediately!
@RandPaul
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Are you serious? St Louis FED is deleting all Gold price history from their database. I guess this is bullish as M3 has surged since the FED stopped reporting it:
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PSLV trading significantly better than Silver Futures; maybe the market has figured out something.
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The same people who were shorting Gold at $1300 because China was going to devalue the Yuan are now shorting Gold at $1800 because interest rates are rising. A falling $ and falling long term bonds are a sympton of foreigners selling your debt; these foreigners are buying Gold.
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Tonight's crash of NY Gold futures is a FED tools to control inflation expectations. Rest of the world can now choose to buy negative yielding US Treasuries or physical Gold at a discount. Like watching a dog chase its tail, or more like 1000 PHDs in economics chasing their tail.
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Biden administration just approved $36B to save pension for 100,000 people. That is $352,000 a person.
Has anyone been fired for these losses?
Where can I apply for a $352,000 gift to my retirement account?
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..Welcome to the Precious Metals Sector. Wall Street & Washington's public enemy
#1
. If you can't handle the volatility, you are positioned wrong. As I have been saying for the past 2 years, the commercials control the offer. The Rest of the World controls the bid!
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Last night I shared some wisdom from my passed father; tonight I will share more. "Never lose your position in a bull market"; Boss was a professional commodity trader from 1966>2014. Sharing a commodity account for 20 years with him was one of my life long accomplishments.
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A friendly reminder to all investment advisors who are recommending selling Gold miners; our miners will earn $915 today for every ounce they produce. At no time in since the late 1970s has this industry been this profitable.
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So tired of hearing dollar is going up, Gold has to go down. Over the past 20 years the dollar index is unchanged and Gold is up 600%. All currencies are going down vs. Gold; given that debt to GDP globally continues to rise, Gold will outperform all currencies over the longterm.
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Investors need to understand how profitable the Gold mining business is at $1800 Gold, our all-in-sustaining cost is below $1,000. At no time in the 2001>2011 bull market did miners have margins over 75%. Our portfolio closed last night at 7.4x consensus EPS; you are here:
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Gold continues to consolidate near all-time-highs on the monthly chart. The technical pattern continues to be a clear cup and handle formation. The fact that US bullion banks are covering shorts below $1800 suggests to us that $1700-$1800 remains major support. Last year FED...
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Every day Gold trades over $1700 an ounce, the average producing miner experiences 70% plus All-In-Sustaining margins. These companies financial conditions are getting better day in day out.
The algo's & ETF traders have no clue what they are trading.
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The cost of mining Gold appears to be rising 10% this year vs.last year. The cost to build a Gold mine may be up 20%. Existing mines are now worth more than a year ago. Anyone selling Gold miners because of global inflation is making a mistake. Inflation is positive for Gold.
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I am old enough to remember Gold rallying $200 on the last downgrade of the US Treasury. Today, our fiscal situation is much worse. 8.3% budget deficit; 124% debt to GDP; 800% unfunded liabilities to GDP. That said, in today's world, who knows how anything will react.
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As a person dumb enough to trade precious metals futures professionally for the past 20 years, here is my 2 cents worth about the current correction in AU & AG. Anyone who thinks commercials have total control over pricing is wrong. If that were true AU & AG would be at $0....
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The 1% selloff in bonds is about done, the 1% rally in the $ is done, Gold is oversold in a bull market; the miners are screaming buys.
(Not trading advice; just observations from a person who has watched financial markets for 35 years)
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You can call it Modern Monetary Theory or you can call it the devaluation of the dollar; I will call it monetization of the debt. It is planned, it is intentional, 1000 PHDs in economics believe it is the best path forward. You can stick your head in the sand or face reality.
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Barbaric relic, pet rock, public enemy
#1
> Gold has begun a major transition> Buffett is attracted to enormous cash flow & dividend potential of Barrick, then Reserve Bank of India signals higher allocation, and now OHIO Police & Fire Pension approves a 5% allocation.
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First failed Treasury auction I have seen in 35 years, interest rates spike, Bullion Banks sell Gold, bonds rally into month end rebalancing primary dealers get bonus, Gold closes on low primary dealer/bullion banks get bonus, that sums it up?
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This morning our miners can sell their Gold for 100% more than it costs them to mine it. Our All-In-Sustaining Cost is $973; current spot price is $1943 an ounce. The algorithms that sold GDX & GDXJ on the opening do 0 research or fundamental analysis.
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10 years of extraordinarily easy monetary policy has led to net worth growing significantly faster than economic output. This is a classic case of too much money chasing too few goods. Unless housing prices and stock prices crash, inflation is not going away.
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...organized intervention in the Gold market. Would any rational investor decide to sell their Gold for the next 10 years and own a Treasury at .65% vs. .5%, with the Federal Reserve increasing money supply at a 20% + annual rate? Treasury wants you to buy Bonds, Wall Street..
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The FED is trapped: the last time inflation was this high, FED funds were 14%. 10 years of extraordinarily easy monetary policy have led to the highest debt to GDP ever. 3% FED funds would increase interest expense by 10% of GDP over time (which would mean a Depression).
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Yesterday, open interest in Gold futures fell another 10K contracts to 419K contracts a multi-year low. Typically open interest declines at the end of price corrections. This is the first time open interest has collapsed above $2K.
Not investment advice, due your own due
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Crony capitalism just got bigger; no creative destruction, no moral hazard, executives who borrowed money to buy back stocks at the highest valuations in history to pay record bonuses are ALL keeping their jobs & bonuses; we get a $1k check.
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FED now must choose between $ and US financial markets. I am happy I am not a $ bull.
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As a reminder, John Law routinely marked Mississippi shares higher every morning & Gold lower in a desperate attempt to keep the Bubble from popping. The French public learned to sell the marked up shares to buy the discounted Gold as the currency continued to collapse.
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Gold is signaling the Great Inflation began today; US corporations will pass on price increases. Precious metals and equity prices rising together is normal in Banana Republics.
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For 2 years my feed said there couldn't be inflation without velocity: I disagreed. Today every major commodity is in a shortage & prices are soaring. Does anyone know 1 economist (including Hunt & Rosenberg) who admitted they were wrong about velocity?
@DiMartinoBooth
@MishGEA
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Since I woke up, S&P 500 has rallied $30 & Gold is down $8. John Law routinely marked Mississippi shares up every morning and marked down the price of Gold. Eventually, the French citizens sold the inflated Mississippi shares and bought the discounted Gold & the bubble popped.
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Gold & Silver open interest collapsed to multi year lows. Shanghai premiums soaring to last October's highs; & tonight Gold & Silver closed in backwardation. All consistent w/ every trading low for past 20 years:
Not trading advice; past results do not guarantee future returns.
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US investors sold 200 plus tons of Gold out of GLD; we already know India had record imports in March. China now publicly says they are large buyers:
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As a friendly reminder to those of you who have never studied the FED; they spent the entire decade of the 1970s forecasting inflation would fall going forward.
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Gold newsletter writers are bearish; this former professional Gold Futures trader says the chart is extraordinarily bullish. Below all moving averages means momentum funds have sold, declining volume into selloff says momentum has sold, positive divergence on RSI says the same:
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One of the dumbest policies in US History (both parties); Treasury borrows record amounts of money, the FED prints it, and US consumers spend this money on Amazon to buy Chinese products, giving them dollars to build whatever they want: a country who is not our friend.
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As the BRICS plus OPEC continue to liquidate US Treasuries and add Gold to their reserves, Europe will be a huge beneficiary. Germany holds 66% of their forex reserves in Gold, Italy 62.9%, & France 57.8%. Macron's recent comments about the $ may be more important than the
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If you have not figured it out: Chair Powell is willing to put us in a Depression to defend the dollar against the BRICS + OPEC. Unfortunately, he appears to not understand the last time the Fed intentionally popped a bubble after a recession had already begun was 1929.
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Real FED Funds continue to plummet as the FED falls further and further behind their mandate of controlling inflation. Why has the FED not responded to the highest inflation in 40 years? If they did, they would pop the 3rd financial bubble in the past 25 years: they are trapped!
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The FED can either remove the greatest monetary expansion in US History, which will pop the greatest financial bubble in US History, or they can go down in history as not understanding that monetization of the debt creates inflation as their text books taught them.
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US money managers never experienced falling housing prices before the 2008 financial crisis; US money managers have never experienced the loss of the privilege of being able to issue unlimited debt today, which is coming quicker than anyone understands.
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Bank of America points out debt rising $1T every 100 days is in fact currency debasement; we point out that 8.5% deficit spending & 4% inflation isn't compatible w/ reserve currency of world: got Gold?
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Another clue that the worlds largest consumer of physical Gold has returned to the bid of Gold, they have been absent since the bull market began 18 months ago, after buying 1000s of tons between $1100 & $1350, this is great news for miners: dont tell the algos!
Chinese SGE Deliveries - Are the Chinese buyers in size again?
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The FED intentionally drove the stock market higher between 1927>1929. The Spring of '29, the NY FED tried to deflate the bubble, by fall the market crashed & the Depression began. The FED has created a Bubble much larger than '29, any attempt to deflate it will be a disaster.
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Polar opposites: My first job in the investment field was as an intern at a local brokerage firm in New Orleans in the summer of 1981. At that time the Federal Reserve was a couple of years into targeting money supply. President Carter had nominated Paul Volcker Jr. as...
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Gold & Silver futures dumped into close w/ S&P'w rallying would suggest it was commercials running stops to create volume to short cover not margin calls. This happens routinely around options expiration; believe the narrative if you wish, seen this repeatedly for 20 plus years!
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Gold backwardation highest in a year, China returned to premium recently, Open Interest has plummeted into rollover, Gold continues to make higher low vs. late December coiled below all of the moving averages. Technically all systems are go for a Gold rally.
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I have professionally traded/invested the gold market for 25 years; i began tweeting about it in the summer of 2018. Sharing what I know for fun, please do not give me advice. Since I began tweeting, not sure anyone has called the bull macro-gold environment better.
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FED to keep rates near 0 throuh 2023 & continue to buy atleast $120B a month in debt>M2 will continue to rise much faster than nominal GDP>real yields headed to 1970s type negative rates, this all very bullish Gold if world history means anything.
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Not even in 1929 did the Fed raise rates after banks began to go bankrupt: that is the tweet.
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NY spot Gold closed the year at $2063 an ounce. This is the 4th highest daily close ever, the second highest weekly close ever, the highest monthly close ever, and the highest yearly close ever. Producing miners are minting dollars at current prices and selling at half the
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Perhaps the St. Louis FED got upset that I created this chart last Monday January 31; later that day historical Gold data was deleted from their database. It is unprecedented for Gold to be down (YOY) with inflation surging. Who made this happen? Bullion banks? Central Banks?
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I am not trading Gold futures & do not own physical; we are investing clients money in Precious Metals Equities at 8.5x consensus EPS, 4.6x Operating Cash Flow & a 22% projected annual growth rate. If you have a problem with that please unfollow me: my Gold mkt comments are free.
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..volatility & listen to their "I told you so financial advisors" & hold their 60-40 portfolios at record valuations. The Fed will continue to print, Treasury will continue to borrow. A year from now it will take more $s to buy Gold. Our miners finances will continue to explode..
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The average Gold mine is making $840 all-in-sustaining margin at the current spot price of Gold. While the cost of mining is rising, the average realized price is also rising, as it should in inflationary cycles. This type of margin was only exceeded for a few months at the 2020
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Another day of FED speakers telling you how hawkish they are without doing anything. We are now closing in on 1 year of the Greatest Inflation in 40 years & FED has only raised rates 1/4 point. Last time FED tried to reduce balance sheet, well that didn't work out so well...
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..wants you to buy their bankrupt derivatives paper, so they can get their bonus. The Fed wants to believe they are the wizard of Oz (nothing to see behind that curtain). Unfortunately, the vast majority of U.S. investors are momentum investors. They will look at yesterdays...
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FED will not be able to raise interest rates if large cap tech stocks continue to fall 20% in after hours trading. In '87 Greenspan raised rates after the hot-stocks dujour had all blown up in September; that sucked liquidity out of market: then FED made a big mistake.
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If the FED actually does what J. Powell says they are going to do, we will be in a Depression by fall. FED has not tightened into popping of equity bubble since 1929. The FED will pivot this summer. All western currencies are worthless:
#gotgold
?
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US budget deficit for last 4 months is $701B vs. $166B last year; deficit is annualizing $1.6T above last year: the fiscal crisis has begun.
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As a reminder, John Law routinely priced Mississippi shares higher every morning and the price of Gold lower every morning in a desperate attempt to keep the Mississippi Bubble from popping. The public eventually sold the marked up MS. shares & bought the discounted Gold.
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$NEM Newmont Mining generated $1.694B in EBITDA at $2090 Gold in the first quarter; my screen has spot Gold 11% higher currently. $NEM is the only precious metals equity in the SPY; will US money managers need to own it? Not investment advice; do your own due diligence.
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NY spot Gold is closing at an all-time-high at the same time US money managers positioning is near an all-time-low.
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Does anyone honestly believe New York & London have enough physical Gold to supply the global demand that will explode at $1650?
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The US has chosen to inflate our way out of our unprecedented debt problem. For now, financial markets are giddy, consumers are confident, CEOs are happy. As inflation continues to accelerate, this will change. We are not the first country in World history to choose this path.
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Gold rose 6 straight days after the G20 meeting in Brazil failed to agree on anything; the world is breaking into two political blocks. BRICS plus OPEC nations are buying Gold for reserves instead of the $US; last week, geopolitics mattered. The HUI Mining index is 39% below its
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99.9% of US investors have bought into Treasury can run 8.5% deficits/ GDP on top of 124% debt/GDP. If that is correct, we were idiots for the first 225 years of this Republic not to pursue these policies & Argentina & Greece would be the 2 wealthiest countries on this planet.
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Gold Open Interest was 449K last night and below March's low when Gold was $100 lower. This is a positive divergence and in support of the theory Gold is making the right shoulder of an inverse Head & Shoulder reversal pattern inside of the handle of the 10 year cup.
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Gold opened down $7 on surprise OPEC production cut; raise your hand, if you think this is bearish for Gold & you sold your Gold Futures.
BRICS plus OPEC are moving on from the $US, plain and simple. Gold will be their preferred reserve asset, not US Treasuries.
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Y'all do realize the FED can't do QT with tech & housing bubble popping?
The reason they have been yapping for 12 months & not acting is called a bluff. When FED folds their QT bluff, $ tanks: that simple.
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NY Spot Gold has finally begun to widen over expiring December Futures: currently + $3.50; which means demand is stronger than supply at current prices. Meanwhile, quality junior miners can be bought @ 7x consensus forward earnings & 4.5x OCF @ current spot prices.
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"The Evergrande debacle has caused investors to move into gold and shift gear to capital preservation,” said Bernard Sin, regional director, Greater China at MKS, adding Chinese imports could “increase drastically this month.” - US investors do not understand Gold is a global...
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As a reminder John Law routinely marked Mississippi shares up and Gold down every morning to keep the bubble from popping. As inflation continued to surge the French public eventually sold the marked up shares and bought the discounted Gold....
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My Fintwitter feed has 0 mentions about the fact that Gold closed above $2K 2 days in a row, after OPEC divorced our President. OPEC plus BRICS are adding Gold to their reserves and liquidating US Treasuries; yet everyone wants to listen to milkshake propaganda. I need new
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Yeh, I will put my technical analysis up against anyone in precious metals markets. The support line is rising, the resistance line is rising; technically we are in a bull market. Anyone saying we are not is a waste of your time. Macro beats technical always; $ supply exploding!
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John Law routinely offered Gold and Silver at discounted prices and marked up Mississippi shares every morning in order to keep the bubble going. Eventually the public sold the inflated shares and bought the discounted precious metal. Let's see how intellegent people are today.
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Below is the ratio of the S&P 500/Gold. Knowing when to own Gold and when to own comon stocks has preserved & created wealth.
@KeithMcCullough
says sell your Gold because we are in a Quad something or other. We believe Gold will outperform common stocks for the next decade:
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The FED is trapped?
The last time the FED raised rates above the rate of inflation, the Great Financial Crisis began. Since then the FED has run the easiest monetary policy in their history. In 1979 Paul Volcker raised rates to 20% causing a severe recession...
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If the $ keeps tanking, I would expect new highs in the Gold market over the next few months. That would mean 100% profit margins for the average cost miner. The cheapest Gold on the planet is still in the ground.
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Retail prices of Silver are $10 over NY Futures. Commercials claim their short is a hedge, but they are naked. They could earn $10 an ounce a bar by supplying Sovereign Mints: these are bullion banks. Where's the bullion you are hedging? Supply the market or cover your shorts!
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The price of Gold in Shanghai (now the largest physical Gold market on the planet) has not followed NY & London prices lower; the premium appears to have expanded to 3% this morning.
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