Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
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Doctoral Research Fellow @NuclearOslo @UniOslo / Non-Resident Fellow @CEPA. Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy. Views are strictly my own.
Oslo, Norway
Joined April 2019
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the significant utility of so-called mini cruise missiles. In my last Missile Matters post in 2025, I provide an overview of the European mini cruise missile market in 2026. Access the post via the link in my bio. Short summary below. 1/6
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Here's a Substack, building on my twitter thread, explaining the background and history of Belarus' effort to acquire the Russian Oreshnik IRBM, or "All I Want for Christmas Is an IRBM", or "A Very Merry Nukemas to all." https://t.co/opOeqzEnMN
Some observations on the geolocation of Krichev-6 in Belarus as the potential Oreshnik deployment site, by @ArmsControlWonk, @DuitsmanMS, and @dex_eve. First, great work - this is a significant find. However, I think there is more worth saying about this in a π§΅uponπ§΅1/9
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Ukrainian manufacturers could eventually play a role as well, offering combat-proven systems, though export capacity remains unlikely in the near term. 6/6
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American and European manufactures are competing for market share in Europe. Given the state of transatlantic relations, European suppliers may have an advantage. American competitors try to counter by offering localization of production. 5/6
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An exception may apply to their role in the arsenals of smaller states with constrained defense budgets. Mini cruise missiles may allow states that were previously priced out of the missile market to acquire deep missile arsenals. Here, the capability is enabling. 4/6
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Mini cruise missiles fill the gap between affordable, expendable long-range drones and costly, high-end missile systems, including heavy cruise and conventional ballistic missiles. In this regard, they primarily serve complementary purposes. 3/6
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Mini cruise missiles are distinct from long-range drones. In fact, they share more in common with heavier legacy cruise missiles, though they are offered at substantially lower price points (around 150-300k per unit), which shapes their capability profile. 2/6
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I have the greatest of sympathies for states wanting to consider nuclear proliferation in the current environment (even if I don't necessarily think it's always the smartest thing to do, far from it). But let's stay realistic: neither Australia nor Canadar have any clear
Last time I was in Ukraine, a popular Telegram blogger gifted me a βMake Ukraine Nuclear Againβ shirt. Since then, opinion polls have found a plurality of Ukrainians think nuclear weapons are the best security guarantee. Important piece from @cjcmichel.
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#Ukraine/#Russia πΊπ¦π·πΊ: π¨πΏ#Czech company to supply cruise missiles with 680 km range to Ukraine. The Czech company LPP plans to start mass production of its new Narwhal cruise missile soon. It plans to produce hundreds of missiles per year for the first two years. However,
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Extremely nerdy missile question, but maybe someone can help out: What is the first 3M-54 variant that features satellite-assisted midcourse guidance and when did it enter into service with the Russian Navy?
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I want to lose my ability to read.
The cheapest cruise missile the US currently makes is 60x the price and is produced at 1/60th the rate Russia produces Gerans. Of course, the Ukrainians are blatantly lying about how many Gerans they shoot down. But at $1.6m per AGM-158, and $20k per Geran, Ukraine would need a
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As Ukraine enters 2026, maturing indigenous heavy missile systems & scaling their production will remain a top priority. Amid potentially growing U.S. pressure to accept an unfavorable settlement, these systems could serve as a key source of independent strategic leverage. 4/4
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In addition, Ukraineβs heavy missile systems of record (Sapsan, Long Neptune, and Flamingo) remain marked by significant uncertainties. As a result, Ukraine continues to depend heavily on imported systems (shown in red in the graphic above) within this category. 3/4
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At the end of 2025, most of Ukraineβs conventional long-range strike systems fall into the βlightβ category (12 in total), defined here as carrying a payload of less than 100 kilograms. In contrast, only nine systems fall into the medium and heavy categories combined. 2/4
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Hi all, I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing an overview of Ukraineβs conventional long-range strike forces at the end of 2025. As always, you can access the post via the link in my bio. Short summary below. 1/4
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I was honored to be invited by Ambassador WΓ€chter to share my views and speak alongside General Gerhartz on NATO deterrence on the eastern flank, including NATO's nuclear strategy and the role of deep-strike systems.
π©πͺ Ambassador to #NATO, Detlef WΓ€chter, hosted a fireside discussion on enhancing the Alliance's deterrence & defence against threats posed by Russia. Big thanks to our distinguished guests General Ingo Gerhartz of @NATOJFCBS & Fabian Hoffmann @FRHoffmann1 for their key insights.
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Leaving aside the usual mean remarks about German attitude to NatSec and strategic thinking, I'd just like to send this tweet back to 1949 for the sheer giggles of causing collective strokes.
π©πͺ Germany should take over the historically American role of Nato Europe commander, Donald Trumpβs envoy to the Western alliance has suggested. Read more β¬οΈ https://t.co/QcNjUEy2A0
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Important read from my colleague @FRHoffmann1. Despite all the bluster about European strategic autonomy, European governments continue to refuse to make any serious investments in key sectors like military-grade jet engines. This is not a capability that can established
Urgently Wanted: More European Missile Engines | "The US is the dominant supplier of critical propulsion technology for Europeβs missile makers. To rival Russia, Europe must catch up." @FRHoffmann1
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Because I've been asked a few times now: I'm currently absent from here and other social media because I'm finalizing my PhD dissertation, which takes priority amid all the chaos. So don't be offended if I don't respond to you. I'll be back in full force in the new year π
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Good stuff
π¨πΏ#Czechia: The Czech company LPP s.r.o. unveiled two new products at the Dubai Airshow. MTS Narwhal cruise missile Narwhal is a subsonic cruise missile with a 120 kg warhead, powered by a turbojet engine, with a range of 680 km and a maximum speed of 750 km/h. Thanks to
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