Eric Finnigan
@EricFinnigan
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Charts & data on US housing, demographics, real estate, macro. VP, Demographics Research @JBREC
Boulder, CO
Joined October 2021
Market by market impacts available for clients: https://t.co/Ak6GzHzdfG
jbrec.com
New immigration rules on FHA loans and the massive H-1B visa fee are reshaping the US housing market and tech hiring. See the full impact.
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FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders and other non-permanent residents in May. This squeezes entry-level homebuying in some key housing markets already dealing with weak sales & too much supply. (Of the 10 local markets most affected, 6 of them are in 2 states)
Last week, @JBREC clients got access to a new piece from me and @EricFinnigan on how recent policy changes are reshaping the housing market for non-permanent residents (NPRs). One notable finding: new FHA mortgages to NPRs have dropped to near-zero following a rule change in
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Many colleges and college towns (but not all) will tumble over a demographic cliff before 2030. Shifts in the US grade-school population gives one clue how it might look:
Another piece from me this week! America built its postwar prosperity on a steady supply of young people, but that supply is running out. And demographers have warned of this moment for a long time (like literally screaming to the rooftops) and we are just now at the edge of the
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Rental demand is largely due to poor home-buying affordability. Household growth ebbs and flows from: * homeowner dominant (2017-2023, shown in blue below) to * renter dominant (2015-2016 and 2024-2025, shown in green below). TY to @EricFinnigan for the chart.
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ICE has reportedly visited 1 in 20 US general contractors' job sites. (Sample size was 1,342 general contractors from various firm types and sizes)
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US seeing about 400K fewer deaths per year than in 2020–2021, great news all around.
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2025 YTD immigration is running a little under half normal rates. Although US-Mex border effectively shutdown, we still have 100s of thousands coming to the US legally. Our survey of mostly large homebuilders shows labor effects are small because they're building fewer homes
The US population could shrink, for the first time ever, in 2025 3 things that could happen next: 1. Labor shortages in construction, farming, and care 2. Big demographic issues for NYC, LA, and other big US metros 3. Avg age in U.S. instantly rises https://t.co/EZMCVNqxNw
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Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July
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Waller: Payroll jobs likely declined May-July "After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]." https://t.co/l77aCWHgdk
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If home sales spiked in 2021 (they did), why no concurrent jump in moving, according to CPS? Our internal data, not shown but based on household address changes, shows less moving in 2024 vs. 2019, but nowhere near the magnitude CPS implies. h/t @tylercowen
Moving likely hasn't declined at all, this is all linked to declining response rates and weird measurement error in the Current Population Survey (where the data in the chart comes from)
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Worth watching if this gets confirmed: Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels. Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities facing a domestic demographic cliff.
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MODERATOR: Are you willing to commit to NOT raise the sales tax? MIKIE SHERRILL: I'm not going to commit to anything right now. On Nov. 4, vote NO on Mikie Sherrill. ❌
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Working moms dropping out of the labor force is MOSTLY about return-to-office mandates (and more enforcement) For obvious reasons, WFH (fully remote and hybrid) is working mom- and family-friendly. Chart from @I_Am_NickBloom
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@jayparsons Jay's original post: https://t.co/N2WbBt6s3q Rob's original post:
linkedin.com
I live and rent in San Francisco and I experience the current rent boom all around me: when I go into the office, when I walk around the neighborhood, when I talk to colleagues, and now even when I...
Well, this is weird... But in all seriousness: San Francisco seems to be, at any given point, the nation's absolute hottest or absolute coldest apartment market. And it's on a hot streak right now, leading the nation with a 10% rent spike since October 2024. But prior to that,
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More on the San Francisco comeback story: ApartmentList data (chart via @jayparsons) shows SF apartment rents growing the fastest in the nation, due to both not enough homes and, according to Rob Warnock from ApartmentList, a "surge in demand."
San Francisco's comeback story is going to be national news. Offices are fuller and crime is down. We'll be able to confirm it when we see more full-time residents moving into SF than moving OUT. Based on JBREC's monthly migration data, this is closer than many realize.
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#Atlanta domestic net migration, as of June 2025, continues on a clear and sustained upward trend, measured by our internal household moves data. Census will publish county/MSA-level domestic net migration estimates through June 2025 in about 7 months (March 2026).
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"People are moving to new homes and new cities at around the lowest rate on record." Our internal data shows households moving between metro areas spiked in 2021 and has fallen by 29% since.
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