John Burns
@johnburnsjbrec
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@jbrec founder and teammate, posting about our passion solving today's housing market conditions to help our clients navigate to a better tomorrow.
Irvine, CA
Joined May 2008
On Thursday, I will focus on rental housing headwinds I see turning into tailwinds, & vice versa. The real question for investors and developers is whether you think the tailwinds or headwinds will be stronger in a few years. I am interested in knowing what you think. @JBREC.
Curious about the impact of rising homeownership costs and demographic shifts on rental housing demand? Join our webinar with John Burns to explore the evolving single-family rental and build-to-rent investment landscape.
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This quote from one of our team members who just completed a market study in Jacksonville was too good not to share. “The incentives are so outrageous that the sales are misleading. They’re just giving it away.“.
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RT @JBREC: For the first time in over a decade, we're seeing home prices decline through May. Not normal for this time of year. 🧐 https://t….
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RT @JBREC: 10 key takeaways from the conference (1/10). Spring sales slump likely stretching into summer: builders are trimming starts, ren….
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RT @JBREC: The big picture. Even with a looming slowdown, the firms that secure capital, scale operations, and lock in land today (institut….
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Wow! I would love to see the breakdown by gender of voter.
Still early, but the poll results are fascinating. .
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🏦 72% of American renters are over the age of 30 (66% on 2004). Which of these trends do you think will continue vs reverse themselves?.
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🏡 Only 33% of 30 year olds now own a home (down from 47% 40 years ago). 💑 Only 48% of 30 year olds are married (down from 78% 40 years ago). 🏘️ Only 70% of 30 year olds have even formed a household (down from 83% 40 years ago).
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There are some massive, investable trends in here: . 🍼 US births are the lowest they have been in 41 years!. 👩🍼 Women are now more likely to have their first child in their 30s than in their 20s.
jbrec.com
US homeownership is evolving as life milestones like marriage, parenting, and buying homes now happen later in life
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It is a horrible time to be in a business that relies on people moving - rental trucks, real estate agents, remodelers, furniture, mortgage, title, utilities, etc. Renters and homeowners are staying in place more than ever before.
Interesting stat from our latest consumer survey:. The % of renters planning to BUY their NEXT home fell again, meaning fewer renters expect to be owners soon. As mentioned on several REIT earnings over the past year (e.g., $EQR), this is a key driver of high retention rates.
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RT @RickPalaciosJr: Pricing power for homebuilders through March clearly moving the wrong way based on our findings. Any added costs now….
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RT @JBREC: (3/11) The 6 phases of the housing cycle: (4-6).🔹 Bottoming – Market reaches a low, stabilizes. 🔹 Recovering – Demand and price….
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RT @RickPalaciosJr: We send clients hundreds of housing research reports annually, scrutinizing our subject lines to capture sentiment and….
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RT @RickPalaciosJr: Single-family build-to-rent (BTR) starts will likely hit ~100K in 2024 per Census, more than two times the norm. I thin….
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A big year for home building M&A @DianaOlick
cnbc.com
Strong demand for new housing has smaller builders ripe for takeover. The Japanese are big players because their cost of capital is low.
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RT @EricFinnigan: War has caused a 2+ year spike in global migration, at the same time national borders reopened post-pandemic. For exampl….
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RT @YahooFinance: "The biggest issue for housing across homebuilding and for sale on the resale side over the last year or two has just bee….
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We now have more complete unsold new homes per community than at any time in the last 10 years (per survey Jody Kahn started for us during the GFC). Community by community, builders are deciding - drop prices or wait until Spring. @ginaheeb.
wsj.com
Home builders might have to offer further price reductions, in addition to continuing mortgage rate buydowns.
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Supply shortages again?.
To show which materials are most likely to be impacted by a East/Gulf Coast port strike, we sent this chart to our clients over a week ago. Most disrupted products: . - bricks [clay]. - furniture. - kitchen cabinets. - aluminum. - lighting equipment. - hardware
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