NEW: 1 in 3 fix-and-flippers are having labor availability challenges due to immigration enforcement. We're not hearing much about labor issues from big builders, but smaller investors are feeling the squeeze - especially in California. Source: August Fix and Flip Survey via

As we debate the merits of 50 year mortgages, it's worth noting that Canada already allows longer mortgages specifically for buyers of new construction homes. In the US, poor affordability has compressed builder margins, and builders are predictably pulling back on new home

Interesting color from the Fed's Beige Book out of Kansas City. Our homebuilder clients tell us labor costs are flat or falling given the broader pullback in new construction. That said, KC might be an outlier here due to dominance of smaller homebuilders w/ less scale.

Last week, @JBREC clients got access to a new piece from me and @EricFinnigan on how recent policy changes are reshaping the housing market for non-permanent residents (NPRs). One notable finding: new FHA mortgages to NPRs have dropped to near-zero following a rule change in

Federal workers who took buyouts months ago are still “employed” on paper. But if they got another job in the interim, they would be counted twice in the payroll data. This could be artificially inflating the already-weak payroll gains over the last few months. Losing -154K

Tomorrow! We'll recap our temperature check on CRE investor sentiment. Join us live - link in the post below 👇

https://t.co/uNmz5SEuCM

Risk-on or risk-off for CRE?🏙️ I'll unpack the newest CRE Fear & Greed Survey from @JBREC + @thecredaily on Wednesday, with a deep dive on multifamily from @ChrisNebenzahl - demand, demographics, and new construction trends. Save your seat - link below👇

New home sales data came in hot this morning, which goes against everything we're hearing from the industry. Census' new home sales data is always noisy. But today's 90% confidence interval was the widest EVER for August. I wouldn't read too much into this one data point.

https://t.co/Pvl4u007sM

Today! A rare PUBLIC webinar from us at @JBREC. Come hear all about demographics and housing trends from my colleague @EricFinnigan (link in the post below). 9/24 (today) @ 4pm ET/1pm PT

Full story (with chartbook!) here:

The biggest winners from today's rate cut? Multifamily investors. The multifamily space relies more heavily on short-term debt than other CRE sectors. Short-term debt is tied to SOFR, which moves in lockstep with the Fed Funds rate. From our 3Q25 survey with @thecredaily:

More on this topic:

The land market is cooling quickly as builders pull back on construction. Less land acquisition today = fewer new housing starts tomorrow. From our quarterly survey of land brokers:

We've been calling out this trend for years for our clients. The decline is mobility is persistent even across age groups. In 2000, 25% of 25-34 year olds (the most mobile age group) moved during the year. Today? Just 15%.

#WestPalmBeach flipper: “Absolutely, I have crews lock doors on jobsites. Crews do not want to work in higher-end areas. Crews do not want to travel to too far away areas or work on weekends.”

#TrentonNJ flipper: “At our renovation project, we’ve experienced some labor shortages and delays, likely tied to recent immigration policy changes. Certain trades like general labor, painters, and roofers have been inconsistent, with crews occasionally missing scheduled days.

#Tampa flipper: “One of our subcontractors lost some labor force, either to deportation or workers just ‘hiding out’ and not reporting to work. Most of our subcontractors were unaffected.”

#SanFrancisco flipper: “No impact. The market is so slow, the trades are looking for more work.”

#SanDiego flipper: “Major impact across all trades. A lot of folks are just fearful and do not want to come to work. There are trade shortages and delays, and people are not showing up as expected.”