Brian Coughlin
@EquityBrian
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Private LT Value/GARP investor.
Boston, MA
Joined January 2014
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In an attempt to gain more criticism/push-back on my investments I thought it would be fun to start publicly sharing my portfolio.
For simplicity reasons, let's label today as the "Inception date". Ill post updates/changes on a monthly basis.
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@Breaking911
But... what about me? An American tax payer who works a 9-5? I haven’t even gotten my stimulus yet....
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$BABA is up 60%+ since JPM called Chinese equities “un-investable”
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$FB/META and $BABA will likely outperform the market dramatically over the next few years.
It’s difficult to find a better risk/reward opportunity.
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Can we all agree that $185 was an insanely cheap valuation for $FB?
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@BleacherReport
My mans down 0-3 and is still the happiest man on earth, thus why he the GOAT he knows the warriors winning means nothing
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*Alibaba hikes share buybacks to $25B from $15B. $BABA
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@blazexx3
You would think for a stunt like this there would MAYBE be a fire extinguisher near by. Survival of the fittest.
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I’m extremely bullish on “wide-moat” $FB/META.
15x FY 2021 P/E for one of the strongest network effects on the planet seems like a no brainer. I plan on building $FB into a 10% position <$230.
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If Charlie Munger selling $BABA changes your thesis you shouldn’t have owned the stock in the first place.
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A 50% $FB/META and 50% $BABA portfolio becomes more appealing each and every day…
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I’m very tempted to start a position in $PYPL.
22.3x P/E (NTM) and a 5.5% FCF yield for a company expected to grow at a >19% CAGR the next 5 years seems cheap.
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@POTUS
Yeah let’s just forgive half a trillion dollars of debt… that will set a great example.
Those who took student loans knew what they were in for.
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Q1 2023 —> Q1 2024 $BABA repurchased 1.057B shares (5.1% of shares outstanding).
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Im seriously considering doubling down on my $BABA position (>30% allocation) once again if we see <$90.
Ill be the first to admit that I’ve been wrong/extremely early with my bets on Chinese equities but I have never been more bullish than I am now.
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@Breaking911
Patriotic duty? He’s insulting me and saying I’m not a patriot because I don’t want to put a rushed vaccine into my body....
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My respect for Mark Zuckerberg has skyrocketed over the past couple weeks. There seems to be a clear method to his madness.
I appreciate the effort he’s putting into helping the public understand his vision via interviews/podcasts. $FB/META
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I still believe $BABA is one of the most attractive opportunities in the market.
Valuation is near record lows and their restructuring plan will likely unlock a tremendous amount of value.
This is a sign that management is compelled to reward/appeal to shareholders.
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Just bought more $FB/META. I now have a >15% allocation.
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@jimcramer
Did you really just say people who aren’t vaccinated are the only ones getting delta?? Why are you spreading misinformation my guy... we both know the vaccine does nothing to prevent you from actually contracting the virus.
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Charlie Munger is one of the greatest/smartest investors of all time
put some respect on his name.
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I remain extremely bullish on $BABA and continue to add shares <$85.
Along with many other Chinese equities, Alibaba is perceived as “un-investable” and as a contrarian this is very intriguing. Such consensus usually coincides with generational buying opportunities.
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Remember when everyone was saying Chinese equities are un-investable?
$BABA $TCEHY
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In 2021, $BABA increased their cloud infrastructure market share to ~38%, stealing market share from $TCEHY & Huawei who have ~17% share each.
The cloud industry in China is forecasted to grow at >30% CAGR into 2025.
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I’d honestly prefer $BABA to stay flat/decline for a few months so management can aggressively buyback stock.
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What’s stopping me from going all in on $FB/META and $BABA?
Hard for me to imagine losing money allocating 50% to each company at todays prices…
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My highly concentrated “coffee can” portfolio:
$BABA
$IAC
$FB/META
$BOC
$NNI
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Don’t be surprised when $BABA reports above par earnings Thursday morning.
Current restructuring plans + cost cutting + improving cloud/e-commerce margins will continue to be a massive tailwind over the next few quarters/years.
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A major concern for $BABA investors has been the doubt of cash being returned to shareholders.
Over the past year management has authorized a massive buyback plan and just recently announced a dividend for the first time ever… (1/2)
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I started a position in $JD yesterday & also added a bit to $TCEHY & $BABA.
With sentiment near ATLs + dirt cheap valuations + managements willingness to focus on returning cash to shareholders (via buybacks/dividends)…
It’s very difficult to ignore Chinese equities ATM.
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Rare podcast/interview with Joe Tsai the Co-founder & Chairman of $BABA
Joe gives his thoughts on the Chinese economy/consumer, AI & more…
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It’s once again extremely difficult to find any obvious longs in this market.
I’ve been wrong/early for 2+ years, but I still think Chinese equities (especially $BABA, $TCEHY) to be one of/if not the best opportunities in the market.
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Alibaba and Tencent have seen their share prices plummet the past few years as sentiment towards China/Chinese equities have reached historic levels of pessimism due to geopolitical tensions + dull economic data.
Although some of the risks surrounding Chinese equities (e.g.…
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Added a bit more to my $BABA position today.
Top line growing at a 30% CAGR and the stock is valued like it’s going out of business (2.10x P/S, 10.50x EV/EBITA, 7.8% FCF yield).
Risk/reward is EXTREMELY compelling at its current valuation.
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Full transcript of Mark Zuckerberg on The Tim Ferriss show for those interested.
Mark seems to be making it his goal to better explain his vision to investors/the public. $FB/META
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I convinced myself to buy more $BABA today. I now have a >40% allocation.
Chinese equities have been severely undervalued for 2+ years now and sentiment remains near all time lows.
Call me crazy if you wish but I’m as bullish as I’ve ever been.
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China and US are expected to reach consensus soon in audit talks. $BABA $KWEB
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$META went from the worst possible stock you could own to THE best stock you could own all within 6 months…
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Massive overreaction from the market. I’m adding to my position. $BABA
$BABA -7.8% premkt
🔸JACK MA’S FAMILY TRUSTS PLAN TO SELL SOME OF THEIR STAKES IN ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING FOR $870.7 MILLION - NIKKEI ASIA
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Just bought more $BABA. It’s back to where it was before restructuring announcement.
I think their restructuring plan will end up creating a lot of value and ultimately benefit shareholders.
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Patiently waiting for Charlie to explain why he sold half his position in $BABA
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If we assume $FB/META is successful in monetizing WhatsApp, what’s a fair multiple for an app with 2B+ users?
As of today, Meta’s valuation implies WhatsApp is worth nothing.
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Even after a 50%+ rally from recent lows, $BABA valuation is still extremely attractive.
10.10x NTM EV/EBITA with a 7.5% FCF yield.
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Long the Magnificent 7 and short Chinese equities remain the two most crowded trades ATM.
$BABA $TCEHY
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$FB/META repurchased $50B worth of shares at a valuation that’s more than double its current value.
With a massive pile of cash and $30-$40B in NTM free cash flow, its likely that Mark/management will start to aggressively buyback shares.
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$META was the most obvious long <$100
I��ve bought $META everyday this week. I now have a >25% allocation.
Time will tell if I’m right or just simply terrible at investing.
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I thought $BABA and other Chinese equities were “un-investable”…?
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Since February, there has only been a single day of outflows. Why is so much money flowing into HK markets from China?
$TCEHY $BABA
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Charlie Munger was EXTREMELY early on $BABA. It may be “one of the worst decisions” he’s ever made but at its current valuation, I think it’s one of the best opportunities in the market.
I’m long $BABA
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Greg Alexander increases his position in $BABA by nearly 20% in Q4. 👇
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Can’t imagine how those who sold $META <$100 less than 24 months ago are feeling right now…
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I think over the course of 3-5 years, a two stock portfolio of $META and $BABA will likely outperform the market.
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The current MC of $IAC is $4.5B.
They have about $1.3B in cash + 15% stake in $MGM (valued at $2.3B) + 85% stake in $ANGI (valued at nearly $1B).
You get EVERYTHING else for free.
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You could make an argument that $BABA/Chinese equities are somewhat of a hedge against a faltering US economy.
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I’ve bought $META everyday this week. I now have a >25% allocation.
Time will tell if I’m right or just simply terrible at investing.
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Just bought some more $FB/META. Valuation is still extremely attractive at <10x NTM EV/EBITA.
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US equities are likely due for a major correction. Valuations are extremely stretched and have been for some time.
It’s very hard for me to imagine Chinese equities (e.g. $BABA, $TCEHY) NOT outperforming US equities over the next few years.
It’s time to fade US equities and go long China $BABA $TCEHY
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Quick take on $FB/META ~ I think Zuck has learned to play the antitrust game.
Its hard to claim that $FB is a monopoly when mgmt. is saying things like this 👇
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I wouldn’t be surprised if Chinese equities started acting as a decent hedge against a very uncertain/overvalued US economy/market. $BABA $TCEHY
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It’s time to fade US equities and go long China $BABA $TCEHY
Market Capitalization
AAPL: $3000B
BABA: $230B
*PEs 33x vs. 10x, guess who’s growing faster?
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Guy Spier (Aquamarine Capital) trimmed his position in $RACE by 25%.
First time he’s made a change to the portfolio since Q2, 2022.
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After a rough start, I still think Chinese equities will outperform by year end. $BABA $KWEB
Chinese equities have been extremely undervalued since 2020. I think we’re starting to see a sea change in both management/CCP willingness to monetize and appeal to/reward shareholders
I think long China/short US will be the best trade of 2023.
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I still think Chinese equities (e.g., $BABA and $TCEHY) are one of the most attractive opportunities in the market.
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ALIBABA APPROVED AN INCREASE TO ITS SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM BY ANOTHER $15 BILLION $BABA
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US and China relations seem to be moving in the right direction. It’s a very positive sign for Chinese equities. $BABA $TCEHY
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Even after a nearly 100% rally from its October lows, $BABA valuation is still extremely attractive.
10.55x NTM EV/EBITA with a 5.2% FCF yield.
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Don’t be surprised when $BABA reports stellar earnings tomorrow.
Cost cutting + improving cloud/e-commerce margins + China reopening will be a massive tailwind for the next few quarters.
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I recently found out that I’m going to be a father. A very unexpected but pleasant surprise.
Extremely nervous/extremely excited for this next chapter of my life.
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What are some of your are highest conviction long term plays?
$BOMN, $BABA and $IAC are currently a few of my biggest bets.
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I’m old enough to remember when Cathie Wood was being compared to Warren Buffet…
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I need to know everyone who was bearish on $META >$100.
We need to have a chat…
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It’s nice to see $BABA massively outperform US equities of late.
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Controversial take: Chinese equities will outperform US equities for the foreseeable future. $BABA $JD $KWEB
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Who’s betting on these games today with me? I got Kansas City and Green Bay. PayPal & CashApp only
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Bought some more $BABA
It remains my largest position with >20% allocation.
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The stock now trades at about 7x NTM EV/FCF.
FCF has grown at 20%+ CAGR over the past 8 years and will continue to do so over the next several years.
At what point does $BABA become impossible to ignore? (2/2)
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I’m buying a bit more $BABA <$70.
I hope the stock price stays stagnant around these levels so management can continue retiring shares at an absurdly cheap valuation.
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47.3% of the entire world has used a $META product over the past month.
But… it’s a dead company.
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I struggle to find a reason why $MTCH wouldn’t work as a long here.
<9x NTM EV/EBITA & 12.2% FWD FCF yield seems cheap for mid/high single digit top line growth coupled with heightened focus on monetization + buybacks.
The stock is definitely starting to look interesting.
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Chinese equities continue to outperform. $BABA $TCEHY
Who would of thought?
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