Juan Correa-Ossa
@ElClutch
Followers
2K
Following
3K
Media
295
Statuses
775
Strategist at BCA Research.
Montréal, Québec
Joined January 2013
What drives long term equity returns? Many people think it is economic growth. And yet, several studies have shown that GDP growth has zero correlation with long term returns. So what should you pay attention to? In a recent piece we broke down returns for 33 countries over the
11
12
71
Awesome episode. Loved learning about the leaders of countries I knew nothing about like Uzbekistan and Ethiopia. Nobody is doing geopolitical podcasting like @JacobShap and @Geo_papic . P.S. Apologies to my fantasy co-owner, But Cousin Jacob nailed his #1 pick.
This was one of my favorite episodes to record. Big thank you to Cousin @JacobShap for putting up with the framework. @BillSimmons. you should give it a listen. Big homage to your work!.
1
1
12
The Japanese equity market has transitioned from a serial diluter to now having a higher rate of net buybacks than the US
0
1
25
I get why people are worried about inflation. However, the only prices rising right now are supply-driven - a first since 2020. Demand-driven prices are actually deflating.
3
9
70
The below pic will go in Econ and monetary policy textbooks for posterity. We are living in the golden age of macro memes.
The White House says President Trump sent this note to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It reads: “You are, as usual, ‘too late.’”
0
3
9
Agree with Steve here. Not a ton of evidence that low interest rates have led to high wealth inequality. If anything US inequality plateaued during the post 2012 period of ultra low interest
@liensofnewyork “Wealth transfer” from whom to whom? . Why do you presume that wealth inequality is exclusively a function of interest rates and cost of credit? China and India have bad both much higher interest rates over the past two decades and also some of the highest wealth inequalities and.
2
2
14
2025 is tracking to be the worst year since 1996 for US home prices outside of the GFC.
0
1
23
If you were to look at only returns during the US session this year, EUR/USD is flat YTD, roughly tracking relative rate differentials. But foreigners have cared little about fundamentals, they just want to GTFO of the dollar.
5
20
61
Do hedge funds add value? It turns out it depends. Looking at 79 US public pensions funds from 2008 to 2022, alpha was contingent on dollars allocated. Large pension funds obtained positive alpha from their HF allocation, while small ones got low or even negative alpha.
1
0
8
Posted Yesterday 🎯🎯🎯.Follow geopolitical maven @mgertken!.
US-Iran escalation real, not fake. Talks still happening but several signs they are melting down. Base evacuations from Iraq came right after Iranian threat to hit US bases if US attacks Iran. Also risk of govt falling puts a fire under Bibi to act, force parties in line.
0
1
6
RT @Geo_papic: Big thank you to @PikettyWIL for the amazing dataset and @ElClutch for the math. This is the Chart of the Decade. There is….
0
37
0
Is Long Germany the new bromance trade?.
The US and Germany share the same DNA. We are partners. We are friends. We are literally family. Many citizens here in the US have ancestors hailing from Germany. I just gave @POTUS a copy of his grandfather’s birth certificate. He was born in Kallstadt, Germany, in 1869.
0
0
6
The relationship between currency returns since Liberation Day and net international investment positions suggests that foreign investors are pulling capital out of the US
1
6
13
The Bromance Trade ends. The Breakup Trade begins.
$TSLA -11.2%.
0
1
5
Is the train stopping now? at the very least slowing down?.
So CBO's estimate for tariff revenue impact on fiscal deficit over budget period is a reduction of $2.8 trillion (taking into account growth impact). and CBO estimate on deficit impact of BBB is $2.3 trillion.
1
0
4
Expectations for government spending in the US have been downgraded sharply. This tracks with how the Big Beautiful Bill compares to what clients were saying to me in December. Most thought that the deficit was going to explode and that spending cuts were impossible.
2
7
34
RT @Geo_papic: The BCA GeoMacro Beta report is out. Shoutout to my great friend and colleague @ElClutch for co-authoring it with me. This o….
0
3
0
One way the hyperscalers have been able to keep margins high despite the historic rise in capex is by cutting back on operating cost. Headcount has been frozen over the past 3 years. Less people, More GPUs.
0
3
15