Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
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Currently promoting MATERIAL WORLD. This entails tweeting about it a LOT. I’ll stop once you’ve all bought it.
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
🧵MATERIAL WORLD THREAD COLLECTION🧵
Writing
#MaterialWorld
was the most fascinating thing I've ever done.
It completely changed how I look at the world.
For a sniff of what I'm on about, here's some threads about it. Starting with:
1: Why I wrote the book
That’s me in the hard hat, in front of the bucket of a terrifyingly enormous digger.
What you can’t really tell from the picture is that my head was spinning.
I’d just had one of those moments that change your life forever. It would set me off on a journey around the world…🧵
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🧵
Something seriously odd is afoot in natural gas markets.
There's a BIG glut of gas in the UK.
Wholesale gas prices are the lowest in 18 months.
There is so much gas no-one is quite sure what to do with it
Yet far from falling, household gas bills are heading even higher.
👇
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🚨NEW🚨
On the
@bankofengland
intervention:
Am told the BoE were responding to a “run dynamic” on pension funds - a wholesale equivalent of the run which destroyed Northern Rock.
Had they not intervened, there would have been mass insolvencies of pension funds by THIS AFTERNOON.
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THREAD: How did we end up here? With the UK’s plans to lift lockdown threatened by a new variant. Just as we taste freedom, it might be stolen from us! Well. It’s a slightly long and circuitous story and, believe it or not, the best place to start is with Brexit…
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🚨NEW 🚨
Bank of England says UK households must brace themselves for the biggest annual fall in their standard of living since comparable records began three decades ago, as it:
- Raises interest rates to 0.5%
- Says inflation will surpass 7%
- Slashes GDP forecast
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Exclusive: UK govt is paying management consultants the equivalent of million and a half pound salaries to work on Test & Trace.
I’ve seen documents showing senior staff from Boston Consulting Group are being paid day rates of around £7k, equivalent to £1.5m on an annual basis.
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Here’s some really good news: the likelihood of someone dying after being admitted to intensive care with
#COVID19
has pretty much halved since the early days of the pandemic. Yet this amazing achievement has been so buried in the data I don’t think anyone has yet noticed. 🧵
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🧵RISING INTEREST RATES ARE A BIGGER DEAL THAN YOU MIGHT THINK🧵
This is important (hence the caps).
I’m a bit worried people are being WAY too complacent about rising interest rates.
They assume that because they’re so low now vs the 1990s, this’ll be a walk in the park.
NO.
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🔋THREAD🔌
The inconvenient truth about climate change is that solving it will involve digging, blasting & leaching more minerals from the skin of this planet than ever before.
No one much likes to talk abt this.
But talk about it we must.
⛏👇
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We heard
@borisjohnson
was here in Davos for a private event.
So we tracked him down to ask him what he was up to.
He took off.
We chased him.
Here’s what happened next:
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🚨How British companies are bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine🚨
A depressing thread.
But an important one.
With some pretty shocking charts.
Let’s begin with the “official” picture. It suggests UK trade with Russia has collapsed since Feb 2022. Down by 74%…
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I’m dearly hoping govt releases some actual data on the lethality of the new variant.
Holding a press conference to announce this ominous news alongside vague caveats about uncertainty is not a functional way to share this news
Nor was leaking it to journalists ahead of the event
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🌞Here's a short story abt how I went to Morocco to see one of the world's biggest solar plants.
It didn't go quite as I expected
This is the Noor complex near Ouarzazate.
It's massive. Bigger than the capital of Morocco.
Europe (& UK) plan to import solar power from Morocco.
🧵
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I was hesitating to post this chart, so depressing is it.
The lines here represent excess deaths.
No other major European state has excess deaths so far above “normal" levels for the time of yr.
In other countries excess mortality is falling. In England it's still rising
#COVID19
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This is a story about a chart. A pretty astonishing chart. A chart that has all sorts of consequences, including misleading ministers, distorting our view on the nature of the UK economy and creating a genuine mystery about what's going on in the bowels of the UK economy
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A big moment in Britain's industrial story happened today.
The coke ovens at the Port Talbot steelworks were closed.
This was where they baked the coal used to make millions of tonnes of steel.
What you're looking at here is the last coke ever made in the UK. Pix:
@TataSteelUK
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Breaking: UK government was routinely overstating the total number of people who’d been tested for
#COVID19
by as many as 200,000 at the height of the coronavirus pandemic, according to new Sky News analysis.
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It’s official.
Not only is the UK now formally in recession.
It’s the deepest recession in UK history.
The deepest of any G7 economy.
The deepest since the invention of Gross Domestic Product.
GDP shrank by 20.4% in Q2, acc to
@ONS
. Follows a 2.2% fall in Q1
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- Markets are frantic
- Govt u-turning on everything
-
@theIFS
warns its fiscal plans don’t add up
- The
@bankofengland
governor is dropping bombs
- Jacob Rees-Mogg says the current market chaos has nothing to do with the mini-budget
WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON
Where to begin?
🧵
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The Humber Refinery in NE England.
This place looks and smells like a ghost of fossil fuel history. It's where they turn crude oil into petrol, jet fuel & many other petrochemical products.
It won't seem the obvious place to start a thread abt batteries.
But bear with me
🧵
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I wasn’t planning another thread on
#COVID19
, the Indian variant & why govt took so long to put it on the red list. But then something odd happened.
Let’s begin with this,
@MattHancock
in the House of Commons this afternoon:
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You’ll have seen a lot of charts in the past few weeks.
But this one REALLY matters.
The mortgage burden - the % we spend on our repayments - is heading for the highest level since the late 80s.
Last time it hit these levels it preceded the biggest housing crash in modern history
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There's been a lot of nonsense spouted about Labour's £28bn green investment plans. And doubtless there'll be lots more nonsense spouted in the coming months.
With that in mind, here's my primer on the plan - and its affordability.
No nonsense. But maybe one or two charts...
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Gosh
Just look at what happened to the pound when
@bankofengland
Governor Andrew Bailey told investors its emergency support will definitely end on Friday.
"You've got three days left now," he said. "You've got to get this done."
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I really REALLY didn’t want to have to do another Covid thread. Really. But given the numbers are on the rise - along with the inevitable hot takes (we’re heading for disaster! The vaccines aren’t working!), I’m dipping my toe back in the waters. Hopefully not for long. 🧵
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NEW
Britain's motoring lobby group the
@SMMT
has insisted that an unprecedented 2,000% increase in car exports to Azerbaijan has NOTHING to with Russia and is explained by the fact that this former Soviet state is a “flourishing market in its own right”.
This is rather... odd
🧵
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Withering words from one of the world's biggest battery and EV manufacturers, China's BYD, on why it's not planning to locate any factories in the UK: "after Brexit, we don’t understand what happened... Even on the long list we didn’t have the UK.”
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🚨NEW🚨
@bankofengland
warning:
- UK now heading for a recession, with GDP forecast to contract at the end of this year.
- Double digit inflation of just over 10% forecast later this year - highest since 1982
- Bank raises interest rates to 1%, highest level since 2009
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The docs show some BCG consultants charging day rates of £7,360.
They’ve given govt a “COVID discount” of 10-15%.
That works out at £6.6k a day - equivalent to £1.5m a year.
In a single week govt is paying these senior consultants more than they pay an experienced nurse in a year
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Breaking: UK will cut 80% to 90% of ALL tariffs on imports if Britain leaves the EU without a deal. Would represent biggest unilateral trade liberalisation in British history. More details on the no-deal tariff plan on
@skynews
tonight
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👀
Blimey this chart from the
@resfoundation
today is quite something.
No other parliament in modern history has seen quite such a big fall in living standards.
And, as I said yday, the contraction in disposable income will STILL be going on next year, during the election…
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Transparency, worst case scenarios, & why govt is treading a dangerous path over
#COVID19
.
This is the longest thread I've ever posted.
But I think it may be among the most important.
Please do read and share if it strikes a chord.
This stuff affects all of us.
Deep breath... 🧵
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Here’s the full IMF statement.
All quite withering.
The kind of statement one normally expects to hear about an emerging economy facing a current account crisis.
Worth reading in full…
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🚨NEW🚨
If govt doesn't reverse its fiscal plans, it may have little option but to cut public spending so enormously it could result in the end of the NHS, acc to Charlie Bean, one of UK's leading economists, of the
@OBR_UK
&
@bankofengland
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Breaking: Credit ratings agency Moody’s changes outlook on UK’s (Aa2) rating from stable to negative. Pretty damning release says Brexit has been a catalyst in an “erosion in institutional strength” which is now seriously undermining faith in the UK. More here:
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The perversity of all this is that if the UK had more gas storage this would be an ideal time to replenish it, locking away the gas ahead of a grim winter. Instead, we retired our biggest storage reservoir a few years ago and have next to no space to put all this cheap gas
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So for instance, take 1980. Back then, official BoE interest rates were on average 14.2%.
But because people were much less heavily indebted, because their incomes were much higher vs their repayments, that was, in affordability terms, EQUIVALENT to 3% in today’s interest rates.
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Staggering number buried in today’s
#COVID19
winter plan: Test & Trace will cost an extra £7bn, so £22bn total this yr.
To put that into perspective, that’s more than the ENTIRE cost of Crossrail (£18bn) or the Channel Tunnel (£9bn at the time, just under £20bn in today’s money).
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Truly grisly assessment for the UK economy from the IMF this morning.
- UK to fare worse than any other major economy this year
- worse even than Russia(!)
- Britain's downgrade came as most other countries saw their growth prospects upgraded
Full story:
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#COVID19
death tolls
Germany yesterday: 583
Germany today: 732
UK five days ago: 578
UK four days ago: 759
Spain 14 days ago: 598
Spain 13 days ago: 767
Most striking thing about this crisis is not the difference between countries but how similar our paths have been
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🚨NEW🚨
- UK govt privately warned it's falling dangerously behind in its plans to build a battery industry.
- Plans nowhere near enough to save the car industry, according to documents seen by Sky News.
- Hundreds of thousands of jobs could be at risk as a result.
🧵
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If exit poll is right, May's decision to call election will go down as one of worst political decisions, since, well, Cameron called EURef
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Golly.
Markets are now pricing in 5.5% interest rates from the
@bankofengland
next year.
Up from 4.75% yesterday.
Deutsche Bank saying BoE may need to table an emergency rate hike as soon as next week.
Extraordinary.
And, as I said yday, higher rates are a big, big deal.
Ugh.
🧵RISING INTEREST RATES ARE A BIGGER DEAL THAN YOU MIGHT THINK🧵
This is important (hence the caps).
I’m a bit worried people are being WAY too complacent about rising interest rates.
They assume that because they’re so low now vs the 1990s, this’ll be a walk in the park.
NO.
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Ahem, I work for Sky News.
I am part of the MSM.
You are literally learning this because the MSM reported it.
The people of the UK don't realise this because the MSM have not reported this. It only reports tightening of restrictions.
#ScumMedia
@BBCNews
@SkyNews
@itvnews
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Which raises a question: is this kind of thing actually happening? Well let's look at UK exports to Kyrgyzstan and ask the question: have they gone up since the outbreak of war? Well, have a look...
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The UK is drowning in gas - but consumers will get little or no relief from these very low prices.
My full analysis on
@SkyNews
here:
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🧵
Why is Britain facing higher inflation than any other G7 member?
How did the
@bankofengland
get so far behind the curve?
Why will UK households end up facing higher interest rates than anyone expected a few years ago?
Best place to begin: cucumbers.
Yes, really: cucumbers
🥒
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🧵Here's a thread about an obscure economic theory from a century and a half ago, which is about to become a MASSIVE deal.
⚡️It helps explains why tackling climate change is going to be v v hard. Some say impossible.
The story begins with this building👇
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Here’s the full story, now up on the
@skynews
website. The government is paying senior executives from private sector management consulting firms day rates of £7,000. More than any other state worker (I think including
@GaryLineker
):
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The tale of Newport Wafer Fab is a parable for our times.
Tells you everything u need to know abt:
- UK's industrial strategy; or complete lack of it.
- UK's inability to decide what to do abt China.
- Most of all, UK's complete obliviousness to what our economy actually DOES
🧵
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Here is the story of today's
@ONS
mortality statistics in a single chart. The worst week for UK mortality (all causes) since records began.
The blue area shows the minimum and maximum mortality each week since 2010.
The red line shows you this year so far.
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Some people being sniffy abt the govt meeting its 100k
#COVID19
test target.
But the underlying point is UK has gone from being one of the nations testing least, as a % of population, to one of those testing most - both in terms of people tested & no of tests.
That's something.
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For the first time in modern history, Britain is no longer manufacturing the fertilisers which keep us all alive.
Yet no-one even seems to have noticed.
My column about why this matters and what it tells you about the stealth deindustrialisation of Europe
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In those 17 days we now know the Indian variant was establishing a foothold in the UK. You get the sense of that from this chart
White bit: cases imported from India. Black bit: domestic cases
So: imported cases in early April began to seed domestic cases
Quite advanced by Apr 19
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Why, you might be wondering, are illegal raiders going to the extraordinary lengths of stealing metal from old WWII wreckages, war graves at that?
Are they after gold? Silver? Stolen artworks?
The answer, it turns out, is far more interesting: a very, very rare form of steel
Chinese-registered ship detained on suspicion of looting wreckages of British warships
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The notion that even as Britons face the biggest cost of living crunch in generations, caused in large part by crazily high natural gas prices, natural gas prices themselves are now down close to what might be considered "normal" levels is somewhat mind-blowing, right?
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Add all those things to the equation - debt burdens, incomes, mortgage terms and mortgage rates - you end up with a very different picture.
Here’s data from
@resi_analyst
who’s worked out the “equivalent” interest rate - eg the actual BURDEN of interest rates over time.
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Never seen the Government issue a rebuttal to a Twitter thread. Let alone devoting nearly 3,000 words to it.
@pmdfoster
has clearly hit a raw nerve.
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As the PM prepares to announce a tentative timetable for loosening lockdown, it’s perhaps worth noting that the UK currently has the strictest lockdown in the developed world (as measured by the Oxdford
@BlavatnikSchool
’s tracker)
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According to euromomo's latest update on excess deaths England is the only country in Europe with “extremely high excess mortality". Most EU countries now down to “normal" levels, with exception of Netherlands, Belgium & Sweden
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I’ve also uncovered documents showing that far from scaling down its reliance on private sector consultants, the govt has created a further 200 roles for consultants to work on the moonshot testing system. Among the recipients:
Deloitte: 84 new roles
KPMG: 50
EY: 31
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The pound sterling is now at its weakest vs a basket of other currencies since Bloomberg began tracking it in 2004. Weaker than during financial crisis. Weaker than post referendum.
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These bars show you
#COVID19
deaths among different age groups in England as a % of total cases in recent weeks.
The higher the bars, the higher the fatality rate.
The red bars are unvaccinated people.
The dark blue bars are fully vaccinated people.
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I do sometimes wonder whether people realise just how much of their money the government is ploughing into its
#COVID19
test and trace programme.
At £12 billion that’s equivalent to £432 for every household in the country.
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What’s the most underrated material in the modern world?
How about CONCRETE?
Often dismissed as boring, ugly & inert.
Concrete is actually surprising, dynamic & incredibly complex.
With that in mind here are a few reasons why we need to start talking about concrete 🪨
🧵
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And that’s not all. Although the govt announced its plan to put India on the red list on Apr 19, the plan wasn’t to be implemented until 4am on Apr 23. Three and a half days. During this period demand for flights India - UK went through the roof
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NEW:
From someone who has been advising the new UK govt:
“I outlined clearly to them in recent weeks how febrile the markets were and how it was critical for them to address market concerns. They didn’t…”
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Leaving aside the implications for what we know about the spread of
#COVID19
, which we'll get to in a second, THIS, simply as a story about management of data, is astounding. At one of the most crucial points in the pandemic tens of thousands of positive cases were underreported.
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🎾THREAD🎾
Have you ever wondered how they keep the courts at Wimbledon so pristine?
Much of it is the hard work of the groundspeople.
But there’s another secret ingredient too.
A mysterious crystal we dig out of the ground.
There’s literally ONE place in the world you can get it
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Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
It’s totally unprecedented.
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Be v careful with this
-UK does NOT have more daily
#COVID19
deaths than whole of EU
-What u see here are different reporting standards
-UK lumps together deaths from previous weeks lately confirmed as COVID
-Other countries do it v differently: eg Spain
Even the BBC can’t help reporting this. The UK (population 60m) has more deaths from COVID-19 yesterday than the entire 27 countries of the EU combined (450m)
The Vote Leave government took one of the best health, science and medical systems in the world, and Brexited it
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The pound jumped following news of the u-turn on the 45p rate abolition
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Pound now down to $1.092 vs US$.
That’s a more than 3% fall today.
And still dropping.
This is… unnerving.
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Remember when the PM announced the easing of lockdown it was going to be about data not dates? Well now we’ve had a bit more data in this feels like as good a time as any to see how we’re doing (Thread)
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There’s an irony here:
@uksciencechief
just told us to be a bit wary of the reports coming out of Israel warning abt the efficacy of single dose
#COVID19
vaccines.
Why? Because of a lack of data.
Yet here he is making equally significant claims without providing the data.
Argh!
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No. Don’t worry. This is not not a thread about Brexit. But Britain’s departure from the EU is the starting point for one of this govt’s overarching policy objectives: the need to seek out a trade deal with key partners. And one of those key partners is India.
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That’s me in the hard hat, in front of the bucket of a terrifyingly enormous digger.
What you can’t really tell from the picture is that my head was spinning.
I’d just had one of those moments that change your life forever. It would set me off on a journey around the world…🧵
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Variants are not the only reason to put countries on the red list. Overall case numbers are also a key factor. And look: case numbers in India were far higher than in Pakistan/Bangladesh on Apr 2. There were numerous reports coming from India of cemeteries being over-capacity
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🍅THREAD🍅
What cherry tomatoes tell you about the cost of living crisis we're all going through.
Amid the wider consternation about inflation, perhaps you missed the fact that tomato prices are up 21% over the past yr - the fastest rate in over a decade.
Let's explore why...
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Because what’s really relevant here is how AFFORDABLE those interest rates are for mortgage holders.
What matters is not just the RATE but how much you’re borrowing and (equally important) how high your disposable income is vs those payments.
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Ugh.
IMF spokesperson on the UK:
"We are closely monitoring recent economic developments in the UK and are engaged with the authorities.
“Given elevated inflation pressures… we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture"
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The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year
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Earlier today the
@UKStatsAuth
gave
@MattHancock
a rap on the knuckles over the testing statistics produced each day by the
@DHSCgovuk
. In an effort to try to get my head round the numbers I took a deep dive into the spreadsheets. I ended up with a bit of a headache (thread):
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That's up by more than 1,100%.
And NB these aren't just ANY goods. They're precisely the machinery/car imports we can no longer send to Russia. All going to Kyrgyzstan. And then almost certainly onwards to Russia (tho the paper trail tends to end when goods leave UK)
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There are many datapoints the new PM & her team should be pondering over the coming days, but among them should be this one.
Acc to Bloomberg’s index, which measures the pound against a basket of other currencies, sterling has in recent days touched the lowest level IN HISTORY
🧵
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We've established that overnight wholesale gas prices are at the lowest level in 18 months. Electricity prices are also, btw, unusually low. So when will we see this reflected in our bills?? Is the cost of living crisis over?!
Sorry you're not going to like the next bit...
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Acc to data from
@PHE_uk
the new variant cases were brought into the UK primarily on flights from Mumbai & Delhi. This was happening long after Indian cases had begun to soar, when the country’s terrible crisis was already in the headlines. But it wasn’t on the red list.
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Here’s what it shows.
In late Mar/early Apr - eg precisely when Bang/Pak were added to the red list -
#COVID19
positivity among travellers from India was 5.1%.
From Pakistan: 6.2%
So not three times higher.
And Bangladesh had LOWER test positivity.
This is the govt’s own data!
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Since 2010 the UK has had the weakest GDP per capita, the lowest wage growth, and among the highest unemployment rates of any period of government since WWII.
Striking chart from the
@resfoundation
this morning 👇
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A few hours after the announcement of the cancellation, India was added to the “red list”. Some 17 days had passed since Pakistan and Bangladesh had been added to that list. It’s hard to know for sure whether the two things - the PM trip and the decision - were linked.
India will be added to the UK's travel-ban red list of countries from Friday, says Health Secretary Matt Hancock
"We must protect the progress that we've made in this country"
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NEW:
Credit ratings agency Fitch cuts the outlook on the UK's rating from "stable" to "negative" following the mini Budget. Rating itself remains AA-
Says the change came despite the 45p u-turn. Adds that
@KwasiKwarteng
's comments abt further tax cuts contributed to the decision
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You may not care what they have to say about these things, but perhaps worth keeping in your mind that the International Monetary Fund has very explicitly warned
@Jeremy_Hunt
that he shouldn’t be cutting taxes tomorrow
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Just about beginning to retrieve my jaw from the ground. Am beyond delighted, esp given the year it's been for data journalism. I've been in awe of the work from the FT data team,
@timharford
and
@xtophercook
this year, as I know have most of you. Can't quite believe it!
Our Data Journalist of the Year was
@EdConwaySky
- for his great skill in interpreting data and challenging discrepancies in official information on the pandemic
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🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
Let's start at the start.
Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
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Now let's add the equivalent UK line. Note I've converted both to the same pricing convention. And note how aligned they are right up until March, when the UK line drops precipitously.
It's VERY low! Lower than pre-invasion. Actually the lowest in 18 months.
For real.
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COVID-19 testing by country. Britain not quite at the bottom of the table. But not far off.
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More on this here. It’s a big deal.
The interest rates we’re currently heading for will be considerably more painful than the headline numbers might suggest.
NB not every household has a mortgage. But those who do may be in for a shock when they refix.
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