EM Fin
@EM28Fin
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Constantly consume geo-pol news for no discernible reason; Trade EM bonds during the day; Watch G10 rates stay violently unchanged like normal people watch 🐦s
Joined March 2022
#Iraq may be the single biggest economic casualty of the Hormuz crisis. While Arab Gulf producers can reroute some exports (#SaudiArabia, #UAE), rely on storage and deep pockets (#Kuwait, #Qatar), Iraq’s oil system was built around one reality: Basra exports through the Strait
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BREAKING: France has officially rejected Trump's request, saying it will not send warships to the Strait of Hormuz
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US needs to fix its rare earths and critical materials supply chain before any sanctioning of China can be contemplated.
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Sharpe of FX carry in 2025 Turkey wins. Ignore RUB you can't trade it. The central bank handing out free money to specs.
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⬇️ 🇷🇺 asset financed loan off the table per Orban
A victory for the @PatriotsEU: the Brusselians backed down, Russian assets will not be on the table at tomorrow’s #EUCO. The Commission now pushes joint loans, but we will not let our families foot the bill for Ukraine’s war. Not on our watch.
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Yep, 🇺🇦 bonds coming off, with the EU EUR 140bn Loan financed by frozen 🇷🇺 assets in Euroclear also no longer on the agenda. Could be another bad crash before we start the next up-move as there has to be a resolution (in some shape) by early Q2 as 🇺🇦 run out of 💶 by then.
🇺🇦 Time to fade bonds The latest US-Ukraine-Europe proposals from Berlin are further away from the 28pt plan, which itself was a ‘basis for discussions’ for 🇷🇺, not the draft of a final agreement. This gets rejected, ➡️sanctions, more 🇷🇺 gains and eventually the next round talks
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🇺🇦 Time to fade bonds The latest US-Ukraine-Europe proposals from Berlin are further away from the 28pt plan, which itself was a ‘basis for discussions’ for 🇷🇺, not the draft of a final agreement. This gets rejected, ➡️sanctions, more 🇷🇺 gains and eventually the next round talks
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Excellent analysis of the move to send frozen 🇷🇺 assets to 🇺🇦 in the form of a loan that is not expected to be re-paid and instead written off entirely ‘when the war ends with Russia paying reparations to Ukraine’ but where Euroclear could still be legally liable to return the 💶
#RadioMoskva The EU’s Reparation Loan vote needs to fail The EU’s vote on the Reparation Loan needs to fail. If it passes it will kill off any chance of a peace deal being signed. The US version of the plan is well advanced and special envoy to Ukraine retired Lieutenant
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Herr Merz, the Belgians have been saying this for months already. A lot of time could have been saved if “dissenters” were actually listened to instead of assuming you can slap them down in the end.
Germany’s Merz says frozen Russian assets for Ukraine must be a shared EU risk — and Belgium cannot be left carrying the burden alone — Reuters. Merz writes in FAZ that EU states must incur an equal share of the risk, as a function of their respective economic performance. 1/
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No, not suddenly - they have been expressing their concern for months, but were just not listened to.
So now Belgium suddenly considers using frozen Russian assets at the Belgian institution Euroclear to secure a €140 billion reparations loan for Ukraine to be "the worst option" "We have a disappointing feeling that we have not been heard. Our concerns are being downplayed. The
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With the plan to use frozen Russian assets as collateral stuck due to Belgium not receiving strong enough guarantees from other member states to cover for the contingency a court awards Euroclear/ 🇧🇪 to repay the frozen assets to 🇷🇺, this will have to come from joint EU borrowing
EU to provide Ukraine with €90 billion to cover two-thirds of its financial needs for 2026 and 2027. “We propose to cover two-thirds of Ukraine’s financial needs for the next two years — that’s €90 billion. The rest should be covered by international partners,” Ursula von der
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Doesn’t look like the threats are working? Or maybe this activity sparked the latest fulmination. https://t.co/BBDtOKyEJf
Tariffs on China this year didn’t work and the US had to fold. Iran is already sanctioned massively and tariffing their non-existing exports to G10 with a nonsensical 500% number is obviously a higher order of nonsense. So you can keep bashing India then. Will that stop 🇷🇺 ? 🤷♂️
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Tariffs on China this year didn’t work and the US had to fold. Iran is already sanctioned massively and tariffing their non-existing exports to G10 with a nonsensical 500% number is obviously a higher order of nonsense. So you can keep bashing India then. Will that stop 🇷🇺 ? 🤷♂️
500% tariffs on China, India and Iran can help force Russia to negotiate. Trump: Congress is advancing tough legislation to pressure Russia and that’s fine with me. Republicans want severe sanctions on any country doing business with Russia. We may add Iran to that.
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I really hope that’s Beer and not a transparent version of a Dune-style stillsuit 🤣 - or if it is indeed the latter, that there is a really amazing recycling mechanism packed into the straw 😬
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The rally in Ukrainian USD bonds is mostly predicated on this coming through.
The European Union punted until December a decision on whether to tap frozen Russian central bank assets to aid Ukraine, after Belgium demanded greater assurances that it wouldn’t be held liable for risks linked to the €140 billion ($163 billion) loans. https://t.co/YeDm9Tf5tp
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H/T Carl Vine at M&G for not being a Panican https://t.co/BzMzVMOTI2
Japan is in a debt crisis. When the BoJ allows yields to rise, the Yen stabilizes but rising yields make the debt burden unaffordable. When the BoJ caps yields, the Yen weakens, threatening another devaluation spiral like in 2022-2024. No good options... https://t.co/dav52EbIKc
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??? All they did was to that their action was in response to the US Commerce Department “Interim Final Rule” from Sep 29 expanding the list of entities subject to restrictions (even with the Geneva-Madrid talks agreement to freeze further actions) which was under-reported to
China is starting to realize that their economic nuclear option response has been a massive miscalculation 👇
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