At the last Welsh Conservative conference Kemi Badenoch told members it had been wonderful to meet so many MSPs - she later said it was a slip of the tongue

We have a packed extra long #PoliticsWales today! Joining me on the sofa to further dissect the #CaerphillyByElection result: @DelythJewellAM @huw4ogmore @JamesEvansMS Carmelo Colastano & @VaughanRoderick BBC One Wales, 10am or on iPlayer

We're not in Bedwas anymore

That's Siambr Hywel, btw. It's the temporary chamber in the old Ty Hywel office block being used until next May, when the main debating hall should be ready for 96 MSs

Lindsay Whittle MS, being sworn in by the Senedd clerk and chief executive, Manon Antoniazzi (📸: Senedd Cymru)

Was interesting seeing the social media stuff Mark Reckless was posting yesterday, who is we're told working behind the scenes on Reform's Welsh project and has kept a low media profile

The first delirious take on analysis from @felicityxevans @jamswilliams85 @GarethLewis77 and the #Walescast team has just dropped. #CaerphillyByElection https://t.co/df68w3rsQG

Mr FPTP is leaving us* and Mr D'Hodnt lives here now *For the Senedd anyway

I think this is the first we've heard from Farage (I think?) since the result. Says they lost to a popular local politician and sets the scene for a Reform/Plaid clash in May

The live page is still going - please visit

And... Nathan Gill. The bribery case obviously impacted Reform's media campaign, with the candidate and Farage both addressing it directly at various points, Gill having pled guilty just as the campaign was starting.

Couple of other things The 50% turnout in the context of Senedd elections is obviously very good for a by-election and better than the less than half that usually shows up. Can May's election now break through the 50% barrier?

Welsh elections have frequently been a question of explaining how interesting is this renewed Labour victory. Now we are asking how small the Labour group could end up being. It's a terrible result for them that tops off a difficult couple of years

Which is... obviously historically something else in its own terms. The fact that this was a two horse race, between a party that had never won the seat and one that barely existed a few years before, is totally bewildering.

Reform's Llyr Powell tried to be positive as he left the count, saying they will form a government next May. If that result was replicated somehow nationally they would be coming back with the 2nd largest group. Things don't work like that but they are still in contention to win.

In the end Reform in a way provided a path to victory for Plaid - with PC encouraging others in the left and centre to pile behind them to stop Farage's lot. It worked, and suggests a strategy next May - harder when there's an election system that's meant to give you choice

We kept hearing it was close from everyone. Reform stuck to that line all night even while Plaid members were struggling to suppress their glee. In the end it was a 3,000+ gap. The reality is that the party went into Caerphilly not having the same background in the area Plaid had

Reform's juggernaut presence made that uncertain. Plaid people you would talk to would say things felt 50/50 during the campaign - unless that was very disciplined expectation management they seemed genuinely nervous they wouldn't be able to overcome Reform's operation.

Plaid's Caerphilly by-election campaign always felt a question of whether it could pull off the victory you could see available in the numbers. PC had a block of about 8,000 voters, and local knowledge from its council base - could they get Labour voters to switch over?

It's very crowded in here. Still no sign of Tunnicliffe