David Steadson #NAFO ๐ฆ๐บ๐ธ๐ช๐บ๐ฆ๐ช๐บ๐
@DavidSteadson
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Digital Health Entrepreneur. Public health epidemiologist and former Uni researcher. #plantpowered ๐ฑ #kyokushin ๐ฅ #longcovid (mostly recovered)
Pine Gap, Middle of Nowhere
Joined July 2011
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A lot of talk about
@Karl_Lauterbach
's recent talk referencing 3% risk of Long Covid, so I've done a new version of my Cumulative Risk of Developing Long Covid graph, below, incorporating this figure. I'm not sure which study he was referencing.
Some important caveats in the๐งต
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More than 1yr after my son fell ill from Covid and never fully recovered he finally - after I demanded it - has a diagnosis of "post-covid" and finally - after I demanded them - had appropriate blood tests conducted.
The result? The Dr just called to say we should take him to ER
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This graph is a draft for a Long Covid paper I'm working on. The paper will be a while, but I think it's important that people - and policy makers - understand the implications now.
It is *very* serious.
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But WEARING A FUCKING MASK? Oh no ... that would be bad for children ...๐ก ... much better they build immunity!
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A year. MORE THAN A FUCKING YEAR.
I'm furious.
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And just for context - He turns 16 next week. He lost an entire term of school because he was fatigued. He now only makes 3-4 days/wk (if that). He's had to change his choices for his high school streams.
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My wife has relatives in both Russia and Ukraine she has been speaking to today. In Ukraine they are literally running for their lives, warplanes and explosions.
A cousin in Moscow - "Russia bombing Ukraine? No ... that would not happen. I've heard nothing. It is fake news". ๐ฅ
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From a recent report by Sweden's Children's Ombudsman -
"When we sought children with long-term symptoms of covid-19 to interview, the response was much stronger than we had expected"
In this thread, I will give these children voice.
#LongCovidKids
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Ugh. My wife was the one who spoke to the Dr. She tells me the Dr was "well this might not be from Covid, it could be from something else"
FFS, this is one of the most known manifestations of LongCovid.
@socialstyrelsen
what are you doing? Why are you not educating your Doctors?
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My day today,
1. I took my 15yr old son to the Doctor, where they did a test. His results were worse than an elderly person with COPD. Thank you
#LongCovid
. Thank you
#AndersTegnell
. Thank you
@Folkhalsomynd
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A few weeks after the mild Omicron wave, South Africa is having a totally coincidental wave of mild mortality.
โ ๏ธEXCESS DEATHS in South Africa๐ฟ๐ฆ are running at 130% of normal in the final 4 weeks of 2021โwhich translates to >10,000 excess deaths in just 4 weeks. โก๏ธExcess weekly deaths currently running ~3000 excess per weekโSA has had large under-diagnosis like in previous waves.
#Omicron
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With current estimates of the risk of Long Covid at approx 20% at each infection (yellow line), and policies leading to an expected 2-3 infections per year, **the vast majority of people can expect to have suffered some form of Long Covid within the next 2-3 years**
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@guiodic
@USEmbassyKyiv
And "Rus" is from the Ros people of Roslagen, where I live here in Sweden, who settled what became the country named after them.
I hearby declare myself Emperor of New Russia. ๐๐
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@VanSenate
Senator,
I am an Australian, and I am an epidemiologist.
I also happen to live in Sweden.
Right now, I wish that I, and my family, lived in Melbourne.
Don't follow the Swedish strategy - it has led to hundreds of thousands on long-term sick leave and thousands dead.
Don't.
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Twitter is again full of Western "experts" telling us that pandemics are impossible to control. We have to learn to live with it. Anything else is fantasy.
Meanwhile ... ๐ค
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Even if Long Covid risk is only 10% per infection (grey line), and 2 infections a year, your odds of getting Long Covid reach more than 50% in just over 3 years.
If infection damages your immune system, as several studies suggest, it'll likely happen faster - or be worse.
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Let's talk about herd immunity.
But first, lets talk about herds.
Here is a herd of cows.
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@WendyRogersAZ
Kyiv is in Ukraine, not the USA. Spell it how the Ukrainians spell it. It's not your city.
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@lairdwd2
@fitterhappierAJ
My previously very fit and healthy 16yr old son with zero underlying conditions has essentially been bed-bound for nearly 2 years with long covid.
Nothing hypothetical about it for us.
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16yr old son
First day of High School
Day 594 of Long Covid
He came home and virtually collapsed. He felt like someone was sitting on his chest and he was suffocating. Pulse was >110, smartwatch shows it >160 during the school day.
He'll be home for day two.๐
#longcovidkids
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For those who think policy approaches to sars-cov-2 don't matter, I give you the island of Ireland.
I still can't get over how stark the divide in COVID-19 cases between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is. It's been like this for *months*.
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We are crisis, around the world, and these are all crises of our own making.
We ignored the threat of the pandemic.
We ignored the threat of Putin's decades of propaganda.
We ignored the threat of Climate Change.
We cannot go on like this.
#WeWereWarned
#LookUp
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I'm so๐คฌ A young Swedish athlete has killed herself after being unable to train due to a "mysterious" illness. What she describes is very clearly POTS, a common manifestation of Long Covid.
"every single blood test/ ekg/ cycle test is good"
#Brangef
รคlt
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This is the state of Swedish HealthCare and
#longcovidkids
-
My 16yr old son has been ill with long covid since an acute infection in January 2021. He started high school this year, and is so fatigued he had to drop out after attending just 3 days, spread over 3 weeks.
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So, if anyone is wondering if you can get a Covid-19 reinfection if you have
#longcovid
....
The answer is yes. ๐
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A massive MASSIVE Norwegian longitudinal study on Long Covid *with* controls and multiple validation tests with over 100000 people followed since the start of the pandemic.
It absolutely blows all the usual minimiser excuses out of the water.
A 2-year
#LongCovid
prospective study in Norway
"A positive
#SARSCoV2
test was associated with new onset memory- and concentration problems, anosmia and dysgeusia, dyspnoea and fatigue as well as self-assessed worsening of overall health, which persisted for the length of the
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@MsKatrinaLyon
@ericbradner
Don't forget a lot of us in the rest of the world care and were watching too.
We'd like The United State of America back too, please.
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It's 8.15pm. My son went to bed at about 5am this morning, so he's now been asleep for some 15+ hrs.
The constant fear remains that if I go in to wake him... I'll find he's not asleep ... ๐
This is living with
#LongCovidKids
, from a "mild" case. Now more than 2 years. ๐ข
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@Brandon72433129
@NoyesJHumphrey
Many, several of which were bad, but the main concern is he has v.high d-dimer -> blood clots.
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Swedish Public Health Authority out today with their most recent report on the prevalence of antibodies in the Swedish population.
85%!
I've circled the time period they sampled on this graph of cases over time. Weeks 47 and 48, 2021.
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My son with postcovid is feeling worse, so we booked an appointment with the local health centre. The doctor asked how why he was there, he explained about worsening fatigue and concentration issues.
The doctor's first follow up question - "how was your childhood?"
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@RVAwonk
Had a group here in Sweden trying to organise protests outside the Australian Embassy to save Australia from fascism. As an Australian in Sweden I took interest and contacted them.
The person I was talking to was speaking in very obviously Russian English.
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Sweden's State Epidemiologist this morning said Covid is a good thing because it helps people over the edge between life and death.
Not only utterly ignorant of the overwhelming science of Covid's impact outside the very elderly, but utterly ghoulish. Shut down
@Folkhalsomynd
Magnus Gisslรฉn pรฅ SVT imorse.
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The simple point is this -
Given what we know now, the more times you get infected, the greater the accumulated likelihood you get Long Covid sooner or later. This should be intuitively obvious, but is being ignored by the majority of people and policy makers.
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We don't yet have good data to determine how this risk differs across age, sex, health, genetics and other factors, but given that remains unknown the graph above should scare the living daylights out of Governments, policy-makers, economists ... and you.
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There's sadly a very good chance that China is about to turn into a massive morgue and a SARS-CoV-2 variant factory. It's not because Omicron is unstoppable, it's because the west decided to
#letitrip
, making it harder and harder to prevent outbreaks.
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#LongCovidKids
My 16yr old son, who got mild Covid in Jan 2021 as a fit and healthy 14yr old has now been asleep >16 hours, and we cannot wake him (he wakes, acknowledges us, then falls asleep).
In Feb he tested +ve for blood clots and SpO2<70%
Psychosocial,
@hanne_kjoller
?
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One of Sweden's top newspapers today,
@aftonbladet
.
"200000 affected. How you can get rid of Brain Fog. The expert's methods. Symptoms."
Anyone want to guess what is not mentioned once? ๐ค
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I had to check this multiple times because I couldn't believe it.
More than 1 in every 120 adults in Sweden has been hospitalised with Covid-19.
This is increasing every day.
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Our paper about the Swedish pandemic response has now been accessed an astounding 112 thousand times in less than 10 days. It's ranked by Altmetric as one of the top 10 papers of the past 8 weeks and currently
#301
of the past 11 years! ๐ฌ
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@DCsmom51
Unfortunately not an uncommon story. It's been like that for my son for more than a year. It was like that for me for nearly 2yrs.
This is what our "leaders" want for all of us. Get infected by "mild covid" a few times a year. Roll the dice on longcovid every time.
Good luck!
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Less than 24hrs after I did this thread,
@StatCan_eng
published the first report I have seen on prevalence of ever having contracted Long Covid by 1st, 2nd, and 3rd infection. They found a 1st infection prevalence of 14.6%. So I plugged that in to my model, with their findings.
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@realDonaldTrump
@LindseyGrahamSC
"The charge of high crimes and misdemeanors covers allegations of misconduct by officials, such as perjury of oath, abuse of authority, bribery, intimidation, misuse of assets, failure to supervise, dereliction of duty, unbecoming conduct, refusal to obey a lawful order," /1
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Entering 2022 the world believes that mass immunity via Omicron and vaxx will lead to a level of immunity that stops the waves of mass infections and new variants.
This is the 3rd attempt to see if this theory works. The first two attempts failed.
I hope they're right this time
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So my youngest son's school has just sent a message that they've gone to the first alert level - "stabslรคge" because so many staff and students are sick with "stomach flu" (vomiting)
The aged care home over the road the same
Apparently all-purpose hand washing is not helping๐คทโโ๏ธ
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Good News! The nuclear bomb we've decided to let hit our city is only 50 megatons, not 100 megatons! Isn't that fantastic news?!?
That's pretty much how I interpret much of the last few hours coverage of some new data on the immune escape properties of Omicron.
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@danaparish
@Brandon72433129
@NoyesJHumphrey
@StevePhillipsMD
yes, it's classic long covid. But it's hard to get tests for a disease the government wants people to think is psychological - and for sure doesn't effect kids.
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New Zealand's disastrous failed attempt at
#zerocovid
continues to be a warning message to the world.
What a beautiful day, amazing crowd and epic scenery. Thanks Queenstown!! We played I Got You as a second encore at the
@GibbstonValley
winery yesterday.
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Wait what?
๐จBREAKING NEWS! ๐จ
๐คฏMasks work now! Even in Sweden! ๐คฏ
"The spread of the virus from infected people is reduced if they use masks. And those who are exposed to infection will ingest a smaller amount of virus if they wear a mask."
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With 30-40 Swedes a day dying of Covid, Swedish media has been forced to compare the current situation to the worst days of the pandemic, before vaccines.
Nรคr man inte lรคngre kan sรคga "frรฅn lรฅga nivรฅer" och nรคr dรถdstalen รคr oproportionerligt hรถga, bรฅde i relation till uppskattad spridning och sรคsong..
Dรฅ jรคmfรถr man med dรถdstalens peakarna under pandemins tvรฅ fรถrsta vรฅgor, innan vaccin och kunskap fanns..
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Here is an updated copy of my graph on the cumulative risk of Long Covid correcting some minor errors and improving the explanation.
tl;dr - If you keep getting infected, you're probably going to get Long Covid.
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The goal:
* herd immunity
The result:
* herd autoimmunity
so close ... so close ... ๐
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So one of my kids (15) has been unwell since a Covid diagnosis in January. He continues to have extreme fatigue and chest pains, he's not been attending school all year, doing what schoolwork he can when he can.
We finally got to see a Doctor a few weeks ago ...
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NOTE:
**If** SARS2 acted **exactly** like HIV, then it would not yet show up in mortality data, hospitalisation data, or opportunistic infection data.
Anyone claiming such data proves SARS2 *isn't* like HIV either doesn't know what they're talking about, or doesn't care.
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Bombshell testimony from Bank of England officials on the enormous ongoing economic impact of
#LongCovid
. Hundreds of thousands have been unable to return to work.
Bank of England officials just told the Treasury Committee they are VERY worried about Long Covid!
"Falling participation in the labour market is not a lack of job opportunities, but a rise in long term sickness linked to the pandemic. The issue of Long Covid is very serious."
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Imagine a new pandemic emerges. The virus is mild for most.
But as many as 1 in 100 kids will be sick for months.
As many as 1 in 400 kids will be disabled by it, for months or years.
Then imagine we have a safe vaccine, approved for children, that decreases the risk by >50%.
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As many of you know, my eldest son has had Long Covid since January 2021. He turned 18 a week ago, and for the last 3 years has essentially been housebound. He's doing high school as a distance course on a reduced load.
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And this *will* and *is* having major effects on society.
We cannot continue to ignore it.
Bombshell testimony from Bank of England officials on the enormous ongoing economic impact of
#LongCovid
. Hundreds of thousands have been unable to return to work.
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School is important? Yup. But they just used it as an excuse. They lied to the Swedish people. They lied to the world. And the world lapped it up.
@Sweden
doesn't care.
@SwedishPM
doesn't care.
@socialstyrelsen
doesn't care.
@Folkhalsomynd
doesn't care.
And the children suffer.
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"They say that children are not affected, but then I'm a child and I've really been affected. Hello! Why do they never say anything about it in their meetings? It feels so warped, really warped" Child, 14 years
#longcovidkids
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This PISSES ME OFF. The Nobel Prize festival tonight, with amongst others
@kkariko
and Drew Weissman receiving the Nobel Prize for Medicine.
F**cking Anders Tegnell is invited, and says the vaccine saved at least 500000 lives in Europe
Here's the truth about Tegnell ->
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Addendum: This is a *really* simple model. Far more sophisticated modelling can (and hopefully will be) done, however I find more complex modelling is less well communicated. This is a starting point, and not a prediction.
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In the last 3 days alone, I've seen fairly conclusive clinical studies showing the sars-cov-2 virus causing *long-term* damage, even in mild cases, to
* the heart
* the diaphragm
* the pancreas
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Nearly 3% *of the entire Swedish population* is estimated to have lost or impaired sense of smell following acute Covid infection.
Swedish "experts" assure us, however, that Longcovid is primarily caused by anxiety and can be treated with CBT.
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"Mask-wearing is the single most effective public health measure at tackling Covid, reducing incidence by 53%, the first global study of its kind shows."
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I've had Covid twice.
Been hospitalised once.
I've now had 3 doses of vaccine.
Each dose (latest yesterday) I've had quite terrible side effects. I'm having them right now. Headaches, chills, joint and muscle pain, slight fever.
Believe me, they're way preferable to Covid.
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It is incredibly surprising to me that even now, in 2023, there are people who literally live in a country that *successfully* pursued elimination of Covid for nearly 2 years - ending only due to a political decision - now claim a Covid elimination policy is impossible. ๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ
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A major Stockholm hospital announced this afternoon they were no longer accepting ambulances with corona patients, because ICU was full. ๐ฏ
A short time ago they said they were reviewing the decision, because there was no places anywhere else either... ๐ฅ
Larmet inifrรฅn SรS: IVA รคr redan fullt โ coronaambulanser stoppas โข Sรฅ blixtรคndrades P3 Guld โ en timme fรถre Yasins pris โข Hรคr blossar gigantiskt eldklot upp i Gรถteborgs hamn โ Per Lundbergs tidningsredaktion brann upp
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A study finds that mask wearing made 50% of students feel safer, and 75% that they were helping others feel safer, and that 4 out of 5 were fine with wearing them.
So what's the takeaway being promoted?
#liesdamnliesandstatistics
โOne in five pupils reported that face coverings made them feel anxious โฆโ ๐ณ๐
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Good news! We're in a Swedish hospital and they're making everyone wear masks!
Bad News! We're in a hospital. ER. At 1am. Again. Son had what might be a mini-stroke, might be a new medicine reaction, might be stress from his math phobia.
This is
#LongCovidKids
. ๐
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What is it about so many paediatricians who think it's perfectly OK for kids to be infected by a novel virus with unknown consequences - as long as the ones who aren't sick can go to school?
What the hell is wrong with these people?!?!?!
๐คฌ๐คฌ๐คฌ๐คฌ๐คฌ
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To his credit the doctor called me afterwards and we talked through it. ๐
We *really* need a campaign to educate medical professionals.
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"Right now school is ok, if I compare with before. I have to take a break, so I'm very tired during the day so I have to sleep at least once a day, even at school. I will be tired and dizzy, but I have found a place ... where I can rest at school." Boy 13 years
#LongCovidKids
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The Swedish Minister for Health today said, under parliamentary questioning, that Sweden has not and does not have a formal strategy for dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.
Just think about that for a minute.
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"Smell still dead. It's been nine months since I got sick. It's very sad when you come in to eat and think it'll be good but then, so very strange after chewing for a while, it feels like it's just mush in the mouth. Nothing more, no taste, nothing" Boy 13 years
#longcovidkids
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My son was infected by an asymptomatic 10 yr old. Something Tegnell said doesn't exist.
My son has now missed nearly **2 years** of school. He just turned 16 and has barely left the house for that time.
He sleeps 12-15hrs a day.
He is ill.
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Denmark this week lifted all Covid related restrictions, and one of the many talking points is that patients in ICU have been declining, despite cases and hospitalisations increasing.
What's not mentioned is that at the end of Dec, Denmark changed protocols for admission to ICU.
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What this actual risk is for different groups, or whether it increases or decreases (or both!) in any subsequent infection is beside this point, as is whether "your" odds are 100% or 10%.
It's rolling the dice, every single time.
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In shocking news for Sweden, it appears that Swedes are actually human and SARS-CoV-2 affects us the same as people in other countries! ๐ฒ
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Interesting natural experiment in Ontario, Canada. All 4 regions had the exact same NPI (restrictions) *except* they moved schools online at different times.
Within about a week there was a noticeable drop in R, in about 2 weeks quite significant.
FACT: Closing schools has a significant impact on COVID transmission.
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This is what we are dealing with now, and getting worse with B117.
More kids getting infected - and quite concerningly, asymptomatic kids (and others) developing
#longcovid
weeks after they were apparently infected.
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I lost it. Politely. But I had to leave, I wss too angry.
All on the day
@noren_elisabeth
has her book launch on the stories of Swedish children with postcovid, which my son was interviewed for.
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"I'm used to having my mother, and then when I realized it could be this really long, after two months I thought - I really panic - will she be like this always? It's a new disease, it's scary not to even know IF she's getting well"
Girl 13 years, mother has
#LongCovid
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Do I understand this correctly? ๐ค
Lockdowns and masks don't work to stop infections, and the reason we're getting massive rises in various infections is because people didn't get infected due to lockdowns and masks?
Just checking.... ๐ค
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Yesterday Sweden's Independent Corona Commission released the second of their three reports on Sweden's pandemic handling. It was quite scathing - too little, too late, poor data, lack of responsibility.
***More than 15000 Swedes have died***
In our neighbour Norway, just 900
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Sars-CoV-2 is a new virus. We don't know everything it does.
We do know it can, even if vaccinated -
* make you very ill
* kill you
* get in to most organs, incl. the brain
* stay there at least 18 months and...
* damage your kidneys
* damage your heart
* damage your lungs
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Minor correction: 30% is actually 33%, so mislabelled. Hat tip to
@ElinBloem
for the catch! ๐
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Sweden told the world that kids don't get sick from SARS-CoV-2. That kids don't transmit it. They even published a "study" using fake data to promote this.
All you need to do is take precautions when you have symptoms.
School is more important than controlling the virus.
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Remember how worried everybody was in March 2020 because of how fast Sars-CoV-2 could spread?
The delta variant spreads amongst *vaccinated* people at about the same rate as the original variant spread among unvaccinated.
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People get influenza about twice a decade. People get Covid about twice a year.
Even if Long Covid and Long Flu occur at a similar rate rate (they don't) and have similar severity (they don't), then this fact alone makes Long Covid TEN TIMES WORSE than Long Flu.
@qldhealth
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The Swedish
#covidiots
got very annoyed when I and
@DrEricDing
pointed this out a couple of weeks ago.
It's continued, and now it's in Sweden's leading newspaper. ๐ฅ
"Covid cases among children and youth continue to rise"
"The biggest increase is found in kids up to 9 years"
DN imorgon:โDen stรถrsta รถkningen finns bland barn upp till 9รฅrโ
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My wife has been communicating with cousins in Siberia to get them to understand what is going on. They support Putin. Here is what they wrote to us last night (translated from Russian).
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@NjbBari3
@Folkhalsomynd
6 minute walk test. After 2 minutes his SpO2 was dropping down to below the limits of the equipment, 70%.
Previously very fit and healthy. He's been sick for more than a year, they've been "nothing wrong, he's fine".
I gave them a list of tests to do and now they're panicking.
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Do I understand this correctly?
Sweden, which has detected >55 cases of the b.117 variant, is now recommending any Swedes who have visited Norway should quarantine themselves for a week.
After Norway detected 2 cases.
This country is a parody.
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How in hell has it taken me nearly 3 years to realise the Swedish Herd Immunity Theory is SHIT? ๐ค
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Unsurprisingly, potassium iodide tablets appear to be sold out throughout Sweden.
Buying potassium iodide in response to current events is kind of thinking the worst and the best all at the same time ... ๐
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2. We spoke to relatives in Russia, who claimed Russia was defending itself from attacks by Ukraine and NATO. We then spoke to our mutual, elderly, cousin, in a bomb shelter in Kyiv, expecting to die.
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Can someone please share the evidence that efficacy of N95 masks drops to zero if not fit tested? That sounds not credible, but has been regularly claimed over the past 4 years.
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Herd Immunity is not going to happen. It's a lie. As I said back in November, what we see this winter is going to happen every winter (and in many places, other times too) until we either change strategies, or get better vaccines.
Don't fall for hopium. It's a giant pile of...
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