Data Orbital
@Data_Orbital
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Led by @George_Khalaf, we're an analytics & survey firm crafting data-driven solutions for our clients. Top 10 pollster in America by @FiveThirtyEight.
Joined August 2016
Let's talk about where our Arizona Absentee Ballot/Early Voting (AB/EV) data comes from! 🤔 We use a combination of sources to bring you the most up-to-date information available to the public. Our data may differ from other early vote trackers because we pull directly from.
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This breakdown is inline with what we are estimating and why we believe @realDonaldTrump will carry AZ. These ballots are heavily Republican and will break in his favor. We estimate about 500k outstanding ballots. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
And we have an update on estimated # of Arizona early ballots left to be processed from some counties:. Gila: ~2300.Graham: ~1100.Greenlee 652.La Paz: 880.Maricopa: At least 250k.Pima: ~92k.Pinal: ~62k.Santa Cruz: ~3k.Yavapai: ~10k.Yuma: ~19k.
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Maricopa County (final update for the evening) - 57.9/40.5 Trump to Biden total ballots counted 62,002. Net gain of 10,783 for President Trump. Trump is still in line with what he needs to catch up statewide. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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BALLOT RESULT THREAD: Pima County - 5,614 ballots 50.8/47.3 Trump to Biden. Overall, this is a strong County for Biden. Good sign for Trump.
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Maricopa County - 84,593 Ballots Reported. Kari Lake - 43,797 (51.8%).Katie Hobbs - 40,786 (48.2%). Gain of 3,001 for Kari Lake. This drop from Maricopa likely to be the worst or the remaining ones. ~190k ballots remain.
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Maricopa County 74,547 ballots. 57.6/40.7 Trump to Biden. President nets 12,644. A bit below our 14,000 projection but good progress for the President. #AZ.
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The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump. #ElectionTwitter #Election2020 #AZ.
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Maricopa County - 62,034 Ballots Reported. Kari Lake - 28,058 (45.9%).Katie Hobbs - 33,018 (54.1%). ~360,000 Ballots left in Maricopa. Reminder(!!!) - This drop is only about 15% of the total ballots remaining and the batch we expected to be the worst for the Republicans. #AZ.
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Mohave County - 81/17.4 Trump to Biden. 5,833 ballots counted. Our projections showed Trump needing to win by 60% here and he won by 63.7%. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
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Maricopa County - 78,000 Ballots Reported. Kari Lake - 35,253 (45.2%).Katie Hobbs - 42,747 (54.8%). ~330,000 Ballots left in Maricopa. Reminder(!!!) - This drop only encompassed early ballots that were mailed back and was expected not to be favorable for Republicans.
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As we wait for the first 9pm eastern update from Maricopa (70k expected). Of the remaining 414k ballots in Maricopa, Republicans have an advantage of 17.6%. The strong Election Day vote had an R+20% edge. #Election2020 #AZ.
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Update: Navajo - 56/39 Trump to Biden. 1,185 total ballots. We had the President winning the remaining ballots 55/45 here so an over performance. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
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MARICOPA BALLOTS REMAINING UPDATE: ~400k total ballots remaining. 275k were dropped off on Election Day. 125k were mailed back from Saturday to Tuesday. Election Day drop off batch likely strongly favor Republicans & the ballots that were mailed back will lean Republican.
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IN-PERSON VOTING: As of 11am in Maricopa County: . Rep - 48,756 (57.7%).Dem - 11,960 (14.1%).Ind - 23,822 (28.2%). Rep ED Only Voter TO - 30.1%.Dem ED Only Voter TO - 14.78%.Ind ED Only Voter TO - 10.8%. *ED Only Voters* Did NOT request an early ballot. #Election2022 #AZ.
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There are about 316,000 ballots left to count @jaketapper!.
New approximate AZ numbers: . Trump gets 42K new votes, Biden gets 31K. margin shrinks for Biden in AZ from around 56k to around 46K. about 200k left to count in AZ.
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IN-PERSON VOTING ONLY: As of 10am in Maricopa County: Republicans have had 23.4% (38k Total) of Election Day only voters vote, Democrats are at 11.5% (9.3k Total) and Independents at 8.4% (18.4k Total). Strong start to the day for #GOP in #AZ #Election2022.
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Anecdotal reports coming in from Yavapai County (a heavily Republican county in Rural #AZ) that there looks to be record breaking turnout. Longest lines people have seen in the last decade #ElectionDay.
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As we wait for the major Maricopa update. Statewide Numbers: Biden 50.26% to Trump 48.35%. Biden margin now down to 1.91% (56,833 ballots). About 390,000 ballots left to count statewide. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
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UPDATE: Counting happening slowly in #AZ. No clear sense from the data if certain updates are in person votes or votes from early ballots mailed back. Republicans steadily picking up margin. 100’s of thousands of votes left to count.
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Coconino County - 50.9/46.4 Biden to Trump. Total 4,225 ballots. Trump over performs our projections of 55/45 Biden to Trump. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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Maricopa County:. Trump - 56.4%.Biden - 41.8%.Total votes counted - 5,291.Ballots left to count in Maricopa - 22456 (~6k provisional). Statewide margin: 12,813 for Biden. #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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Real question is, when @realDonaldTrump wins tonight’s update by more than 60% will @FoxNews finally recant their premature call?.
Fox News Decision Desk says not changing their early AZ call because they believe there are fewer than 550K outstanding votes and will average only 45% for Trump.
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Outstanding Ballot Update - . Maricopa: ~29.5k (8,209 are provisional).Pima: ~18.7k (18k are provisional).Remaining: 13.3k (10.6k are provisional). Total: 61.6k (36.8k are provisional). #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020.
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MARICOPA UPDATE - 56.39/40.76 Trump to Biden with 47,870 votes. This netted Trump 7,479 votes. Margin for this drop was 15.62%, much better than either of yesterday’s updates. Statewide now 20,484 margin for Biden. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
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Update: Navajo had another drop today now 56.2/41.6 Trump to Biden with 2,808 votes reported (only ~700 left here). Yavapai 70.6/25.6 Trump to Biden with 5,169 votes reported (~3,400 left here). Trump exceeded our projections in both counties #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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IN-PERSON VOTING: 4pm - Pima County. *DEM STRONGHOLD*. Rep - 26,775 (51.0%).Dem - 11,025 (21.0%).Ind - 14700 (28.0%). Rep ED Only Voter TO - 55.0%.Dem ED Only Voter TO - 35.2%.Ind ED Only Voter TO - 24.4%. *ED Only Voters* Did NOT request an early ballot. #Election2022 #AZ.
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Pima County: . Trump - 50.6%.Biden - 46.9%.Total cotes counted - 7,142. Statewide margin: 14,468 for Biden . #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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And this is why it was too premature to call! Maricopa ED fully reported and @realDonaldTrump winning 62/48. Lead for VP Biden is now 3.8%. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
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Election Day margins need to be over 35% for Republicans. With a small sample, Republicans are up 42%.
The moving average of the past 5 drops in the Governor's race is @KariLake 71, @katiehobbs 29.
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Pinal County:. Trump - 63.3%.Biden - 35.3%.Total votes counted - 910.Ballots left to count in Pinal - 135. Statewide margin: 14,213 for Biden . #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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🚨NEW DATA ORBITAL ARIZONA STATEWIDE PRESIDENTIAL AND US SENATE POLL🚨. Presidential Race:.Trump: 49.7%.Harris: 41.9%
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PSA: “8pm Drop” #AZ results still missing ~500k early ballots. Including 100k from Maricopa, 268k from Pima, 50k from Pinal.
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Midday Updates: Graham, Greenlee and Yuma. 53.6/44.2 Trump to Biden. 2,759 ballots and a net increase for Trump of 261 ballots. Graham and Greenlee exceeded our projections and Yuma underperformed. #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter.
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CORRECTION: Trump to Biden margin was 67.9% to 31.3% (36.6% margin). Much closer to our initial projection of Trump winning by 40%. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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We expect one more update from Maricopa tonight at 1am eastern. Stay tuned! #AZ #Election2020.
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Will repeat again: this call is premature. Of the almost 200k ballots counted since the initial drop, @realDonaldTrump has won more than 60% of them. Lots of ballots left. Lead for Biden has been cut to 4.95% #Election2020 #AZ.
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The latest Maricopa Drop of 136k Election Day voters showed @KariLake winning that update by 75%. That 50% advantage for Lake over Hobbs needed to be at 35%. Lake over performed in a major way.
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Gila County - 73.5/23.6 Trump to Biden with 2,023 votes. This is an over performance for Trump from our projections. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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HUGE UPDATE: Pima County 51/46 Trump to Biden. 28,344 total votes. This county is a blue county that Biden is winning overall by 17%. This exceeded our projections of 45/55 Trump to Biden. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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MARICOPA UPDATE: 51.4/45.78 Trump to Biden with 61,789 votes counted. There are ~238,000 ballots left to be counted. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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Recount threshold in AZ is .1% or 200 votes whichever is less. So recount threshold will be 200 votes for statewide races.
@Data_Orbital Recount kicks in at a margin of 4k or less.
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MARICOPA UPDATE: 56.13/42.09 Trump to Biden with 75,314 votes counted. This is a bit below where our projections were for President Trump for tonight’s update. Overall margin now 46,257 for Biden. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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Rural Counties:.Pinal - 63.9/33.5 Trump to Biden with 13,417 votes.Apache - (combined total of both updates today).62.9/35.6 Biden to Trump with 6,291. Statewide margin - 16,952 (.51%) . ~81k ballots left to count (of which, ~45k provisional) . #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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MARICOPA UPDATE - 53.37/43.7 Trump to Biden with 71,932 votes. This margin was an improvement for Trump from this mornings 5.64% but not enough to overtake the lead. Statewide margin now 29,861 and .92% for Biden. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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Update: While the margin will continue to tighten, with the updates from this morning it has become unlikely that President Trump can overtake Biden and win #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter.
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Our President @George_Khalaf on with @seanhannity discussing breaking developments in Arizona #AZ #Election2020.
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Vote share in #AZ for Presidential race between @realDonaldTrump and @JoeBiden has been tightening since the first 8pm drop. Est 87% of the vote reported! #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter
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Pinal County - 65/34 Trump to Biden. 8,345 total ballots counted. This was a bit behind our projections for Trump in Pinal. ~31,000 ballots left to count. #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter.
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Final AZ General Election Polls: Republicans in a strong position going into #electionday 2022. #AZGov race:.@KariLake 49.7%.@KatieHobbs 46.6%.undecided 2.0%. #AZSen race:.@SenMarkKelly 48.2%.@BGMasters 46.5%.undecided 2.5%. Full release:
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Maricopa County - 74k Ballots Reported. Kari Lake - 34,075 (45.9%).Katie Hobbs - 40,055 (54%). ~267,000 Ballots left in Maricopa. We believe ~250k of these ballots are Election Day drop offs.
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Multiple County Update:. Coconino - 52.3/44.9 Trump to Biden with 419 votes.Yavapai - 78.5/21.6 Trump to Biden with 181 votes. Statewide margin: 14,886 for Biden. Maricopa update coming in 47 minutes!. #ElectionResults2020 #AZ #Election2020.
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ESTIMATION ~ 900k ballots remaining Statewide. Some races may not be decided until the end of this week! Stay tuned. #Election2022.
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Maricopa County - 98,618 Ballots Reported. Kari Lake - 53,022 (54.6%).Katie Hobbs - 44,111 (45.4%). Gain of 8,911 for Kari Lake. 94,285 ballots remains in Maricopa County. #AZ.
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IN-PERSON VOTING: As of 1pm in Maricopa County. Rep - 68,681 (56.5%).Dem - 17,866 (14.7%).Ind - 34,989 (28.8%). Rep ED Only Voter TO - 42.4%.Dem ED Only Voter TO - 22.1%.Ind ED Only Voter TO - 15.9%. *ED Only Voters* Did NOT request an early ballot. #Election2022 #AZ.
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Heading into #electionday 2022 tomorrow, here are some predictions for #AZ's Statewide Offices.
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Rural County Updates:.Apache - 62.4/36.2 Biden to Trump with 3,038 votes.Navajo - 60.7/37.3 Trump to Biden with 244 votes. The Apache update is an over performance for Trump and has tightened our final expected margin. 4pm most Maricopa update coming! #AZ #Election2020.
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Happy Sunday! Another day of counting in #AZ! Ballots remaining (includes Provisionals):. Apache: 9.3k .Cochise: 8.2k.Coconino: 3.8k.Gila: 55.Graham: 118.Maricopa: 195k.Mohave: 1.3k.Navajo: 4.4k.Pima: 53.4k.Pinal: 17.9k.Yavapai: 750.Yuma: 1.15k. ~296k Statewide.
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Arizona: It's still a mess here. Last night's ballots were good for Trump, but there just isn't as much precision in our understanding of what's left as there is in the other states. I'd still think Biden's the favorite, but you can't call this one without more data than we have.
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Final Maricopa County update tonight (that represented the final 54k Election Day voters remaining) went to Lake by 41%. Results trending very strongly for Republicans heading into counting resuming Wednesday morning. #ElectionDay.
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Rural County Update:.Small updates from Apache, Navajo, Pinal and Santa Cruz counties. 59.3% Biden to 38.2% Trump with 692 votes. Statewide Margin - 17,131 and .52% for Biden. #ElectionTwitter #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionResult2020.
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Analysis Update: Unlike in Midwestern states, Rep’s heavily favored among early ballots that arrived between Friday & Election Day +18.1% Rep (have not been counted) vs early ballots that arrived before Friday -1.5% Rep (have been counted). #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
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This is correct. About 74k ballots will be announced tonight out of the ~274k left. #AZ.
Republicans should tamper expectations on tonight's drop, as they have not quite exhausted the less favorable areas near the MCTEC center- but from Sunday onward, expect all Republicans in Maricopa County to begin making steps forward.
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Sentiment from a National politico as we head into the final hours of #ElectionDay 2022….
We'll probably end up with turnout short of expected because Democratic turnout has been so abysmal.
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More ballots in #AZ have been reported today from counties favorable to Dem's than favorable to Rep's. Nothing surprising in any of these results. Maricopa will update after 8pm (should be fairly even for Rep/Dem numbers) the last batch of early ballots that were mailed back.
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There are ~108k ballots left, of which ~45k are provisional. Current statewide margin for Biden is 18,610 and .56%. We expect the margin to continue to tighten as additional ballots are counted. We expect Maricopa this afternoon and others likely, as well. #Election2020 #AZ.
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Cochise County:. 67.4% Trump.29.6% Biden.3,437 total votes counted. Statewide margin: 15,432 for Biden. #Elections2020 #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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Final update of the evening! Coconino county added more to their numbers from this afternoon. 51.37/45.56 Biden to Trump with 9,938 votes. This keeps Trump slightly ahead of our projection for Coconino. ~2,800 ballots left to count.
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Maricopa County:. Trump - 49.96%.Biden - 47.77%.Total votes counted - 6,397. Statewide margin: 14,746 for Biden. #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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AZ Presidential race is tightening because less Republicans are voting for Biden (down from 13% to 7.5%) and President Trump doing better with Independent voters. We believe President Trump will win AZ.
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Always good to speak with @FOX10Phoenix! Discussing why we believe @realDonaldTrump will win #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter
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Not to rain on @RalstonReports parade but a lot more ballots to count in AZ. 264 is an over ambitious electoral college count at this point. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
So Michigan gives Biden 264? Do I have that right?. Is there any state out there that has six electoral votes?. That would be 270.
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There seems to be a lot of confusion in rural counties on the amount of remaining ballots. Navajo had reported ~5.8k remaining, today released about 300 & now say they have 90 left. BEST ESTIMATE - 77k ballots left (40.6k provisional). #Elections2020 #Elections2020.
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Cochise - 56.4/40.7 Trump to Biden with 6,136 total votes. This underperformed our expectations for Trump by a bit.
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Everyone should be watching the updates from the rural counties. Presidential race is now 6.38% margin down from 7.7% when Fox called it. Trump winning big in these updates in traditionally blue counties like Coconino and Pima. Very little updated from Maricopa. #Elections2020.
@FoxNews calling #AZ for VP Biden is extremely premature. Around 900,000 ballots outstanding and they will heavily favor Republicans. #ElectionResults2020 #ElectionTwitter.
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Stats for Likely Voter Early Ballots that were NOT mailed back & thus eligible to be dropped off #ElectionDay . Rep Likely Voters* - 224k (43.1%).Dem Likely Voters* - 161k (31.0%).Ind Likely Voters* - 135k (26.0%). *Voted in at least 3 of the last 4 general elections.
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Lines and wait times in voting centers across Maricopa county, as expected, so far have been mostly in heavily Republican areas. Tempe and West Mesa have been the exceptions. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
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BREAKING: New General Election survey results in the hotly contested race for Governor in #Arizona. #ElectionTwitter #Election2022 .
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Pinal County Update - 62.5/35.28 Trump to Biden with 6,970 votes. This netted Trump 1,898 votes. Pinal has ~22k ballots left to count. Maricopa Update in 14 minutes! #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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La Paz County:. 74.6% Trump.23.6% Biden.787 total votes counted. Statewide margin: 16,730 for Biden. #ElectionResult2020 #Elections2020 #AZ.
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Good Morning! As we all took a couple hours of sleep…strong Republican updates came in from Pinal County (they counted around 45k). Republicans won those by wide margins. All eyes on the 100’s of thousands early ballots that were dropped off on #ElectionDay.
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Translation: These ballots will be even *At Best* for Republican statewide candidates. The batches we expect to be good for Republicans were early ballots dropped off on election day and none of those have been reported yet and likely won’t be until tomorrow.
What to expect tonight from @MaricopaVote’s ballot update— .The release will include ballots from Sat night, Sunday and most of Monday, per election officials to @CNN.
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Ballot Count Update (11/11 1:17pm mst). Apache- 1.7k (1.4 provisional).Cochise- 3.3k (3k prov).Graham - 8.Greenlee- 5.Maricopa- 22.4k (6k prov).Pima- 15.7k (15k prov).Pinal- 135.Santa Cruz- 1 .Yavapai- 340 (310 prov).Yuma- 2.1k (1.8k prov). #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020.
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Apache - 81.2/17.8 Biden to Trump with 2,223 votes counted. This was an over performance for Biden. Should be less than 1,000 ballots left in Apache #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ.
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Maricopa County:. Trump - 53.4%.Biden - 44.3%.Votes counted - 13,143.Ballots left to count - 6,715. Statewide margin: 11,635 for Biden. #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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Santa Cruz - 56.78/41.87 Biden to Trump with 1,409 votes counted. Statewide margin now 43,779 and 1.41% in Biden’s favor. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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Sorry for the radio silence yesterday! Our team took a much deserved break to spend time with family. We will post Saturday's updates now and continue to update until all the votes in #AZ are counted! #ElectionTwitter #Election2020.
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Another day of counting in #AZ! Est *Non-Provisional* ballots left to count based on County reports. Apache: 8.5k.Cochise: 8.4k.Coconino: 11.2k.Gila: 50.Graham: 16.La Paz: 1.9k.Maricopa: 354k.Mohave: 10.6k.Navajo: 5k.Pima: 112k.Pinal: 16k.Yavapai: 12k.Yuma: 8.4k. ~548k Statewide.
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Current County Turnout. Apache - 67.4%.Cochise - 70.9%.Coconino - 81.5%.Gila - 82.5%.Graham - 76.1%.Greenlee - 76.5%.La Paz - 68.95%.Maricopa - 79.8%.Mohave - 78%.Navajo - 74.3%.Pima - 80.98%.Pinal - 74.81%.Santa Cruz - 66.1%.Yavapai - 87.6%.Yuma - 66.9%. Statewide - 79.14%. #AZ.
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Cochise Update - 62.48/34.16 Trump to Biden with 2,172 votes counted. New statewide margin is 38,455 and 1.22% for Biden. #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter.
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Additional Navajo Update - 65.8/31.93 Trump to Biden with 2,117 total votes (this includes the 1,086 update from this morning) #AZ #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter.
County Updates - Navajo 65.1/33.06 Trump to Biden with 1,086 votes. Mohave 80.14/17.54 Trump to Biden with 3,957 votes. Statewide margin now 40,954 and 1.31% in favor of Biden. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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Multiple Counties:. Cochise - 64.9%/33.2% Trump to Biden (1,122 votes).Pima - 50.2%/47.6% Trump to Biden (5,589 votes).Ballots left to count statewide - 16k (5.5k provisional). Statewide margin: 11,034 for Biden. #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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Republican Enthusiasm in Maricopa County is HUGE: 72.8% of ALL Republicans who didn't request an early ballot have voted so far. Republican turnout is going to likely exceed 75% when all Election Day voters are accounted for.
IN-PERSON VOTING: 6pm - Maricopa County. 1 hours left!!. Rep - 118,045 (52.7%).Dem - 37,291 (16.6%).Ind - 68,823 (30.7%). Rep ED Only Voter TO - 72.8%.Dem ED Only Voter TO - 46.1%.Ind ED Only Voter TO - 31.2%. *ED Only Voters* Did NOT request an early ballot. #Election2022 #AZ.
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County Updates - Navajo 65.1/33.06 Trump to Biden with 1,086 votes. Mohave 80.14/17.54 Trump to Biden with 3,957 votes. Statewide margin now 40,954 and 1.31% in favor of Biden. #Election2020 #AZ #ElectionTwitter.
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Multiple County Update:. Pima - 51.1%/46.4% Biden/Trump (4,589 votes counted).Yavapai - 75.6%/22.3% Trump/Biden (377 votes counted). Statewide margin: 12,828 for Biden. #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020 #AZ.
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Good Morning! Est *Non-Provisional* ballots left to count in #AZ based on County reports (not all have reported). Apache: 8.5k.Coconino: 14k.Gila: 3.5k.Graham: 16.Greenlee: 304.La Paz: 892.Maricopa: 400k.Mohave: 10.6k.Pima: 155k.Pinal: 25k.Yavapai: 16.5k.Yuma: 8.4k.~642k ballots.
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