Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini
Followers
66K
Following
21K
Media
8K
Statuses
93K
Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”
Virginia
Joined March 2007
It's nice to be not wrong.
If Trump wins, which looks increasingly likely with every minute, it's going to be with the most racially diverse Republican coalition in a very, very long time.
34
52
475
I thought Dems never stooped to the level of Republicans. This Is Not Who We Are™️, Love trumps hate, Kindness is everything (lol).
Even in a bad year for CA Dems (2024), you can create a 52D-0R map with no seat being less than Harris +10. Would probably eliminate 9 Republicans. If you're willing to create 1-2 GOP vote sinks, you can create a map with no seat less than Harris +14.
10
2
43
RT @BrendanJaspers: Must-read 🧵 from @PatrickRuffini. @Apple’s upcoming iOS update could cripple campaigns’ ability to reach voters and m….
0
8
0
RT @ericwilson: More unintended and harmful consequences from Apple’s decision to divert text messages from users.
0
2
0
Any changes to reduce spam must ensure that:. - The ability to do high quality polls isn’t compromised.- The voice of the voters isn’t silenced.- Political speech is protected.
7
0
6
Texting is also a vital tool for GOTV and mobilizing low-propensity voters, for example allowing campaigns to reach out to voters to cure their absentee ballots in cases like signature mismatches. Making it harder for these texts to go through will disenfranchise voters.
1
0
3
Polling will continue to evolve and embrace new technology. Text-to-web polling has been a key part of that over the last few cycles. And it’s important to understanding opinion at the local level, especially with local journalism in decline.
1
0
2
It’s not just political pollsters. Public health surveys are threatened too. Agencies like the CDC use these methods extensively too.
1
0
2
By design, polls must invite the broadest possible cross-section of the public to participate. Strict opt-in requirements are antithetical to this. Policymakers have long recognized this, creating common-sense carve outs for survey research.
1
0
4
Recognizing the vital role polling plays in our democracy, bona-fide research is treated differently from telemarketing, exempt from the Do Not Call list and other requirements—so long as polls don’t lead to a sales pitch. @Apple should also apply this same standard to iOS 26.
2
2
7
Hiding these calls and texts may render these sorts of polls much more expensive, out of reach for all but the most wealthy and powerful institutions. That’s the best case scenario. The worst case is that they become impossible to do.
1
0
3
The polling industry has adapted to the death of landlines first by moving to cell phone interviewing and more recently to texting. The high-quality probability polls like NYT/Siena that you love around election time rely exclusively on outreach methods targeted by iOS 26.
2
2
4
Online polling has come a long way and can be a great option for national and large area polls. However, online polls are largely opt-in and aren’t always feasible at the local level.
2
0
4
Polling has been moving online for a while now, but for state and local polls, calling and texting the broadest possible segment of the public is often the only way to get a representative sample.
1
0
2
iOS 26 will move calls and texts outside of a sender’s close contacts to an unknown senders tab. Many will welcome this as a way to fight spam. But a big unintended consequence of this will be to make it harder for pollsters to reach a representative sample of Americans.
3
0
7
🧵Polls are an essential tool of American democracy, helping us understand what the public truly thinks and holding elected leaders to account. But the upcoming release of @Apple iOS 26 threatens the ability to conduct high quality polls, especially at the state and local levels.
15
11
28
RT @baseballot: Nice article on the 2026 Almanac of American Politics (which I contributed to!).
poynter.org
Despite a polarized nation, the 2026 edition continues to offer trusted, comprehensive data and profiles, from local districts to Washington insiders
0
2
0
960 SAT guy thought this would be a good email to send
0
0
10
The trick with these seats is not just adding enough Trump voters so that they’re flippable, it’s completely jumbling up the territory to negate the RGV’s pro-incumbent bias.
2
0
12
RT @ZacharyDonnini: I updated this chart with 2024 CCES data. Harris actually outperformed Biden with liberal Nonwhite voters, but lost si….
0
24
0