Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini
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Pollster @EchelonInsights , married an Iowa girl, author of Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.
Washington, DC
Joined March 2007
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Today’s the day! My book, Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP hits bookstores. It’s a definitive look at the political realignment unfolding before our eyes, with implications for 2024 and beyond.
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US should recognize the independence of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
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California did everything right, shutting down the state before it needed to. Deaths per 100,000: 5.
Florida and Texas did everything wrong, acting too late, leaving beaches open. Deaths per 100,000: Florida: 6, Texas: 3.
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An election where Oz and Walker narrowly lose and where DeSantis romps by 20 points is the worst possible night for Trump and the best possible night for DeSantis.
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First Black woman Lt. Governor.
First Hispanic and first children of immigrants as Attorney General.
This is the new Virginia GOP.
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Person who switches light off then switches it back on thinks they invented electricity
“The United States has now gained back 87 percent of the 22 million jobs lost during the pandemic recession. It’s one of the fastest job recoveries on record.”
(via
@PostOpinions
)
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Impeach and remove.
This is not about the next 14 days. It’s an insurance policy against people forgetting (they will) and definitively closing the door on any comeback bid in 2024.
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Tonight’s swing from 2020 works out to like a 50 seat Republican gain in the House.
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Palestinians are trapped in Gaza because other Arab countries won't let them leave.
Other Arab countries won't let them leave because:
1) The narrative of civilians suffering in Gaza is inconvenient for Israel.
2) The population there would be just as destabilizing to their…
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The willful ignorance of basic economics continues
Earlier this week,
@OregonGovBrown
made it easier for families to stay in their neighborhoods by enacting statewide rent control. No one should ever have to choose between paying their rent each month or feeding their children.
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Only thing I’m confused about is that McAuliffe staffers thought people would think this was real
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This is their vision.
The DMV for the Internet.
The DMV for health care.
The DMV for child care.
If there’s anything slower and more inefficient than the cable company, it’s government.
One DMV is enough.
Have you ever called Comcast yourself, or does someone do that for you?
Cause for LOTS of communities, we’d take public internet over oligopoly internet any day of the week.
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The “pro-democracy” side has also been the fastest to proclaim emergency powers over the last two years.
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Democrats in the Trumpiest districts voting for impeachment
Brindisi (NY-22, T+16)
Horn (OK-5, T+13)
Cunningham (SC-1, T+13)
Golden (ME-2, T+10)
Xochitl Torres (NM-2, T+10)
Cartwright (PA-8, T+8)
Rose (NY-11, T+8)
Delgado (NY-19, T+7)
McAdams (UT-4, T+7)
Slotkin (MI-8, T+7)
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Don’t call Warren’s tax a 2% tax. Over 10 years it would wipe out 18% of wealth over $50M and over 50 years it would wipe out 64%. Over a billion dollars it would wipe out 27% over 10 years and 82% (!) over 50. And that’s not taking into account the returns on these assets.
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I found the best person and asked her to marry me. (She said yes!)
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Seeing this footage of the McCain memorials is a good reminder that normal people aren’t as polarized as you think and it’s Twitter that’s creating that illusion by shining a spotlight on awful human beings
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I wasn’t gonna say this at the risk of being too flippant, but watching the media flip-out I can no longer hold back:
Omicron is a cold.
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You’re one of eight reasons the House is unable to vote on additional aid to Israel right now.
Maybe sit this one out.
Hamas apologist asking for “ceasefire” after one side launches a massive terrorist attack. Nice try.
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For a long time, we understood the struggle for civil rights to be deeply patriotic. To set these two ideals against each other is a mistake
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REALITY CHECK: Whites with a college degree, who dominate the media and Twitter, are a majority of registered voters in just 34 counties in America.
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When Obama used it, all this Internet advertising stuff was cool. When Trump got good at it, very different story.
We’ve made the decision to stop all political advertising on Twitter globally. We believe political message reach should be earned, not bought. Why? A few reasons…🧵
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Beto the great savior’s favorability rate stands at -3.
Ted Cruz is +11.
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Culturally liberal whites with a college degree who live in urban areas are probably 10% of the population but write 80% of the news and generate 90% or more of "culture."
Imagine if we redistributed cultural power like some want to redistribute economic power.
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Get your American-made, America First vaccine, developed by American free enterprise under President Donald J. Trump
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Let’s be clear here. Confirming ACB is probably worth more than winning the election and definitely worth more than whatever marginal cost might be incurred at this point.
My prediction: Senate Republicans will now pay a tangible political cost if they try and force the hearings on an already-condensed timetable -- despite all the chaos around them.
(I didn't think so before Trump was diagnosed with COVID.)
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The initial impetus behind lockdowns was not to overwhelm the health care system.
With 50% vaccinated & 80% among 65+'s, the chance of any outbreak among the ~30% not yet immune overwhelming the system is nil.
The criteria for fully re-opening have already been met
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It wasn't just Cubans in Miami-Dade. Pretty much every element of the Democratic coalition - Black voters, Jews, LGBTQ - swung towards Trump.
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I still can’t believe these people thought this would be such a PR win they timed it to the anniversary of 9/11
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Presidential margin shift, 2012-20
White Non-College, R+13
White College, D+21
Black, R+9
Hispanic, R+20
Asian/Other, R+13
Republicans gained in demographics totaling 71% of the vote, but white college voters shifted more sharply left.
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Is it me or would this be getting a lot more attention if this were closer to New York or LA?
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Republicans already outvoting Dems 2.5 to 1 in Pinellas today after being slightly outvoted by them in the early voting period.
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14 years of the Affordable Care Act.
If you want to know what a law does, look at the name and assume the opposite.
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Somehow the thought of the government being responsible for my Internet connection is more terrifying than the government being responsible for my health care.
Let’s create a federal Office of Broadband Access, and invest $85 billion into making sure every home in America has a broadband connection. That means publicly-owned and operated networks—no giant telecom companies running away with taxpayer dollars.
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Trump or not, the future of the Republican Party is non-college whites and socially conservative nonwhites going to war with woke college-educated whites in the suburbs.
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It’s not about safety — never was. It’s about not wanting to work.
NEW: Chicago Teachers Union scheduled a full vote Tuesday to ask members if they support refusing to work in person starting Wednesday.
80% of members on tonight's call said they didn't want to work in person under current conditions.
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We don't win anymore. All we do is lose to Mexico and China.
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2016 lesson: You can dump oppo that someone is a sexual predator and hasn't paid taxes for 15 years and it will be forgotten in 3 weeks
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🚨 Miami-Dade is going to be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats.
In 2018, Dems outvoted Republicans by at least 70k votes.
In the 22 point shift in 2020, Dems still outvoted Republicans by 90k.
Republicans have a 10k vote lead in ballots cast as of right now.
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No, immigrants don’t cause more crime. Go read the crime statistics.
No, immigrants won’t change the political balance of power in America. Go study past waves of mass immigration.
No, immigrants won’t change the character of our country. They are the character of our country.
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Remember when Bill Kristol defected to the Democrats because he thought they’d at least stand up to Putin?
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*** LATINO SHIFT IN FLORIDA ***
Florida: Trump +3 to DeSantis +17 (14 point swing)
Miami-Dade County: Biden +7 to DeSantis +11 (18 point swing)
Osceola County: Biden +14 to DeSantis +7 (21 point swing)
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There are people who were more morally certain of denouncing people who went to the beach and to weddings and funerals in 2020 than are about the beheading of babies in 2023.
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I mean this is totally verifiably false.
Nope. Stronger COVID measures produce STRONGER ECONOMIC outcomes. That's why jobs, growth, and economic activity are UP this year, significantly over last year.
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Polling on airplane mask mandates vs. actual passenger reactions yesterday is the most vivid example of stated vs. revealed preferences, something which has confounded Covid polling from the start
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Someone winning the Presidency with supermajorities in large states like California and New York is exactly the scenario the Founding Fathers were looking to prevent when they instituted the Electoral College.
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Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996 by 8.5 points, the most resounding victory by a Democrat since LBJ.
I don’t think people realize what a stick in the eye his campaign was to liberal Democratic orthodoxy.
A 🧵and appreciation of Clinton’s 🐐 ‘96 re-election.
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I am fun.
I enjoy fun. I both have fun and can be fun. Fun is a word that accurately describes me and a large quantity of things of which I am fond. I appreciate fun when I encounter it, and I have even been known to partake in activities that produce fun for myself and others.
One nation under a groove
Gettin' down just for the funk of it
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In any other world, there'd be wild GOP celebration at a +4 national vote, 58-42 among Hispanics, 14% among African Americans. But these votes turn out to have been inefficiently distributed.
If your pre-election bingo card had a roughly R+4 national House vote and the House still not callable by the Friday after the election...congrats, you win.
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It’s pretty simple. Biden leads by 7 in the polling averages. Accounting for uncontested races, Dems won the midterms by 7. Trump approval has been pretty much a flat line for 3.5 years. We don’t need to make this more complicated than it is.
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A reminder that minorities plus progressives are one of the most formidable combos in Democratic politics — they elected Obama and are responsible for most “progressive victories” in 2018 primaries.
White progressives aren’t doing nearly as well.
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Heidi Heitkamp raised $13 million for a race the size of a Congressional district after opposing Kavanaugh.
She lost by 11 points.
NEW: Tens of millions of dollars have flooded Senate Democratic campaigns since RBG's passing.
Nearly $3 million to Gross in Alaska. $6 million to Cunningham in NC. Sums in AZ, ME, SC, KY believed to be even bigger.
The 2020 map Impact w/
@jwpetersNYT
:
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Current Presidential Margin: D+2.8
Current U.S. House Popular Vote Margin: D+0.2
GOP over-performance in the House: R+2.6
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We shouldn't need a reminder of this, but here goes.
While the country's elites in both parties would love to see a business-savvy candidate with socially progressive views, there is almost no appetite for this amongst actual voters.
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I'm calling for a complete and total shutdown of polling and punditry until we can figure out what the hell is going on.
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Would read an academic paper or 3,000 word breakdown on why people who are politically right of center don’t do this
Protesters followed Sen. Sinema into the bathroom at Arizona State University to confront her on Build Back Better and immigration
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When the pandemic came, there was no self-promotion or I-told-you-so from George W. Bush. No rush to claim status on the Twitter or TED Talk circuit. His foresight was noted after the fact by a news organization.
That's the kind of man our 43rd President is.
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The Greitens ad is a bad look, even among Republicans, but igniting an MSM feeding frenzy surrounding it only helps consolidate the 30 to 40% he needs to squeak through in a multi-candidate field.
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Why did the GOP shift the national vote by 5-6 points but only gain a few House seats?
They had as badly distributed a swing as you could have. Biden +0-5 seats swung the LEAST, and the number of these seats was cut down dramatically in redistricting.
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It’s kind of amazing how quickly the discourse about the virus escaping from a Chinese lab passed given the deaths of 600,000+ Americans and the widespread disruption of the global economy that it caused.
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Here it comes. Trump Hotels ditching name as bookings drop 59%.
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Fascinating finding in here is that Republicans and black people largely agree on the use of the term black, while other Democrats prefer African-American.
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As we confront yet more variant-induced anxiety, it's worth remembering that as of September, 92% of blood donors had Covid antibodies through vaccination or prior infection.
8% of the country or less is at risk for severe Covid.
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Monmouth out with a gold-standard poll showing Trump trailing in a GOP primary by 13 points.
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Bannon becoming a leftist hero after he becomes a cooperating witness in the Mueller investigation in not how I expected 2018 to go.
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If you’re a college educated professional who lives in a city who likes to drink imported beer, here’s your reminder that almost no one else is like you.
Michelob Ultra passes Miller Lite as the third best selling beer in the US (via
@BevNET
,
@iriworldwide
)
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Dan Crenshaw has a better shot at being President than Beto
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Hong Kong is *literally* the model for capitalist countries outperforming adjacent autocracy and collectivism, both on economic performance and political freedom.
The demonstrations in Hong Kong are an inspiration to us all. It is the right of all people to protest for a better future. We stand with these brave protesters and call on the Chinese government to refrain from violence.
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Democrats don’t Gerrymander
House Democrats have posted a far more detailed Google map of the proposed district boundaries. Take a look here
#twill
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Top Biden related searches tonight = Trump punches landed
1. Ban fracking
2. Superpredators
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A reminder that these two governments are not morally the same.
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This is how the media is biased. They won’t come out and say Democrats are good and Republicans are bad, but the nonpartisan “movements” they lionize are almost exclusively on the left.
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America is an idea more than a nation. Anyone around the world who adopts the ideas of free market capitalism and God-given individual rights can be American.
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How is Ben Collins a "senior reporter" for NBC News when all he is doing is activism, just like Taylor Lorenz? Do these news organizations understand what these people are doing to their brands?
Maybe I'm overgeneralizing from a sample of two or three people but, like, the most prominent "misinformation reporters" are both very partisan and very often spread misinformation. The whole category is 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩.
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Strongest swings in Fairfax come from heavily Hispanic precincts
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Recent studies suggest that the following could safely reopen without much of a hit on R0:
- Schools
- Parks
- Beaches
- Outdoor seating in restaurants
- *Maybe* outdoor sports (MLB, etc.) with limited capacity
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Great breakdown by Ruy Teixeira on
@EchelonInsights
’s four quadrants.
Progressives are on a different planet from Hispanics and working class voters.
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The thing that ultimately sank George W. Bush, who also had an anti-elitist appeal, was the idea that he was not competent.
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Remember that it’s Democrats’ massive lurch left that’s driving political polarization and the culture war.
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Your stat of the day:
Donald Trump among Republican college grads
48 Favorable
50 Unfavorable
Ron DeSantis among Republican college grads
80 Favorable
9 Unfavorable
At
@kkondik
request, here are results by college grad/non-grad. Note ns are modest so large MOE for the crosstab.
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The tell was the immediate claim that the blast killed 500 people. There’s no way a casualty number that large could be established within minutes.
Possible impact crater at the Ahli Hospital in Gaza, roughly 1x1 meter, maybe 30cm deep.
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The theory that in a nuclear war we’d spend the last 30 minutes cracking jokes on Twitter is not exactly being disproven by current events
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