Interesting that 🇫🇷 govt debt stopped rolling off the @ecb's balance sheet in the most recent months - just as political turmoil and upward pressure on bond yields intensified. Not the case with any other country. 🤔

No end in 🇩🇪 misfortune - its gas storage levels are dropping from their already low levels due to an ongoing cold spell. They were over 95% full this time last year, now 75%. A reminder the 🇪🇺 is still hostage to weather to get through winter without damaging gas price spikes.

The FBI has cut ties with the Southern Poverty Law Center after decades of collaboration, citing its “partisan” agenda. For years, the SPLC has smeared faith-based organizations like ours. Today, that narrative is collapsing!

This is literally what the German government is doing. Although, as all things in Germany, it won't happen overnight.

There are growth pockets in 🇪🇺 too. But they are found in the "new" Europe. 🇵🇱's share in 🇪🇺 industry value added doubled in the last 25 years from 2.5% to 5%. Initially driven by catch up growth thanks to outsourcing, but more recently higher value add activities too. 🇵🇱🚀

The launch of € and 🇨🇳's entry to WTO hammered 🇮🇹's industry. Then came the financial crisis, it never recovered. Energy and new 🇨🇳 shocks are decimating 🇩🇪 industry now (🇺🇸 tariffs too). 🇩🇪 & 🇮🇹 have the largest industry sectors in 🇪🇺 (42% of total). Our crown jewels...

Regular reminder France already spends the largest share of national income on pensions in the whole Eurozone. It feels like the domestic debate on fiscal issues is so detached from reality, it is hard for an outsider to begin to comprehend.

German industrial production plunged over 5% m/m in August to the lowest since the pandemic in 2020 amid a collapse in capital goods output - car production was down 20% due to production halts and shifts to new models. Likely to be reversed but not fully. It's not looking good.

For those worried about 🇨🇿 support to 🇺🇦 after the weekend election - below chart with 🇸🇰 arms exports to 🇺🇦 (in € mln). Expect the same. All private companies (🇸🇰 defence minister owns some), state stockpiles are empty anyway. Babis wants 🇨🇿 (his mates) to make money too.

Macron cut taxes (mainly for businesses) but this did not lead to higher growth. Govt spending keeps climbing with the future of his pension reform in doubt. Given the political deadlock and fragmentation, hard to see anything being done. RIP reformed EU fiscal rules (2024-25).

First EU economy I see where government consumption hasn't shot up far above the pre-pandemic trend. Flip side of the government deficit being on the lower end of the EU spectrum. The price for that was lower transfers to HHs, lower growth and worse hit to living standards.

Just as the 🇨🇿 economy started to turn a corner, the incumbent govt was thrown out this weekend. Although among the worst performers since 2019, it ranks high on quality of life, poverty, inequality or unemployment. High recent inflation (level shift up in prices) again decisive.

The guy who just won the Czech general election in quite a landslide and will be PM is Slovak and speaks a mangled version of the two languages and the leader of the far right party (which did quite well) that wants to kick out all immigrants is Japanese. Unique and fascinating.

Clear divide in which countries gobbled up the EU's SAFE loans for defence. Unlike the financial crisis and the pandemic, the end of the peace dividend is not seen with the same urgency across the EU. Existential in the East, optional in the South (North borrows cheaper than EU).

It also unlocked the occasional all-country blackout

Uptick in Eurozone headline inflation in September to 2.2% makes a December rate cut by @ecb more unlikely, even though it is purely driven by energy price base effects. A stronger Euro and lower global commodity prices should drag headline inflation below 2% in coming months.

Important to look at actions not words. 🇭🇺 has approved all 🇪🇺 sanctions on 🇷🇺, agreed to 🇺🇦 funding & supplied over 70% of the reverse gas flows since 2024 to keep 🇺🇦 lights on after 🇷🇺 stepped up attacks on energy. As with the other big mouth Fico, the proof is in the pudding.

🇩🇪 gas storage levels haven't been this low at this time of year apart from 2021 when 🇷🇺 was throttling supplies ahead of its full scale invasion of 🇺🇦. Overall 🇪🇺 storage level is higher but still more than 10pts below end-Sep last year. A warm winter would come in handy indeed.

Orban increased spending on families & children since coming to power in 2010 (5% of GDP a very expansive definition though) and 🇭🇺 fertility rate recovered from the lowest in 🇪🇺 to median. But just as elsewhere, it collapsed recently. State support is just one of many variables.

The private sector in 🇫🇷 has been deleveraging after a pandemic-era surge in debt. This is the flip side of rising govt debt. During the 2000s, 🇬🇷 private sector debt rose fast, while the govt failed to deleverage (hello Athens Olympics 2004). That's the build-up to a crisis.

Chance of @ecb rate cut later today next to zero. Although Eurozone inflation is at 2%, this is skewed by low prints in 🇫🇷&🇮🇹 (& 🇩🇪 at 2%), as it was above 2.5% in 13 out of 20 member states in August. Governing council members have national, not 🇪🇺, flags in their passports.