Idk long big cap tech has been a decent investable theme and has been in a bull run for basically 23 years, 22 bagger from an ETF

Index Ventures doesn’t get enough credit. Largest shareholder in Wiz, second largest in Scale AI, largest in Figma, all are generational >$15b exits within 4 months. Top 3 VC firm globally, and arguably #1 IMO due to the consistency in fund size and returns they put out.

Pretty incredible, seeing automation and robotics improve productivity/efficiency right in front of our eyes. Packages delivered per employee has increased by 80% since 2020 while employees per facility are down -40%. $AMZN is a beast of a robotics company.

Fun memories, go PSU!.

Wrong take. Ellison is much richer because he didn’t sell shares and has steadily been buying back 2% of the company every year for 30 years! Increase ownership from 17% to 40%. $CRM made a lot of dilutive acquisitions and Benioff steadily sells his shares yearly.

The reality is that the hyperscalers are spending so significantly on capex, hurting profitability through depreciation, that to maintain current margins they have to trim OPEX. They can use "AI" as the reason, I think it's more so a need versus a want.

Agree. Also, multi-stage PMF is quite good for most founders. Low touch, extremely high price, good brand to help with hiring, and "potential" for big Series A/B and founder secondary. Need to have a real edge for a true Seed fund to partner with top founders today. Tough market.

It's so interesting. Either incumbent SaaS is getting disrupted by AI natives because AI revs isn't showing up in numbers, in which that means most of $2trn of VC Unicorn NAV is likely toast too. Or, hyperscalers are overinvesting near term by an extreme amount. Both are negative.

I think we're going to look back in 20 years and gasp at the fact that we had humans driving 4k pound steel machines at 60+ MPH resulting in >1 million deaths annually. What a time to watch Waymo scale.

$GE split the business in 2021 and had a total market cap around $50b. The four businesses are now worth >$400b. What a remarkable turnaround story. Wonder what this would look like if $GOOG decided to split the business into Search/Mobile, Waymo, Youtube, Cloud, and Deepmind?.

For reference the Nasdaq was flat for 16 years following the pop of that bubble.

Cleanest argument is OpenAI, SpaceX, Stripe, and Databricks IPO 5 years from now for a combined $3-5 trillion. Problem is not enough VCs with not enough ownership in those companies. Majority of the multi-stage GPs would get smoked in such a concentrated situation.

Forward multiples for these mid-cap tech IPOs are down -70% from 2021 and growth has slowed a lot. All the while, VC dry powder is up from $60b in 2014 to $300b in 2025. Tough argument to make that the 15+mega GPs who've raised >$3b funds as a whole will produce >2x net returns.

For the VC crowd supporting large fund sizes today because of bigger exits in the future. Largest US VC IPO ever was in 2012 (FB) at $86b. The largest 2020-2022 IPOs were $COIN, $SNOW, $DASH, $ABNB, and $PATH. That basket is down mean -22% since 2021. Avg SaaS IPO -30% from 2020.

N of 1.

Roberto Campos Neto joining the leadership team for $NU focusing on international development and public policy. Roberto is widely regarded as one of the best central bankers of this century, most notably instituting and leading the rollout of Pix.

Also, this chart is truly beautiful. 10x'd revenues in 6 years with a 29% trailing FCF margin. Running away with the market.

AI native customers represent $260m of ARR for $DDOG, up 200% YOY and 8.5% of their total ARR. Good signal for inference and AI products moving into production.

This gets said a lot but I’d disagree. VCs today make more money than ever, multi-stage VCs strategy (scaling AUM) is one of the highest margin business out there with 70-80% EBIT after salaries to team. Sure prices paid and VC $ itself is commodity, but the business isn’t.

LOL this is the perfect two sentences on the state of VC today.