Max Mog Maxxing Capital
@Contagion0313
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Research firm. Trading and Investing since 2006
Joined September 2020
Is 2026 the year of the squeeze? The most concentrated shorts are outperforming the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 handily. Via @GoldmanSachs
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Total Put/Call Ratio continues to trend Up. Put/Call Ratio's 1 week average is at the highest since $SPX crashed last April. *This is the Put/Call Ratio across all U.S. options exchanges, not just CBOE
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The dollar short trade is extremely crowded. Just as we're at a strong support trendline that goes back to 2008. I'd rather be on the other side of that positioning until it balances out to neutral. 👇 Speculators have turned the most bearish on the US dollar since 2021 - CFTC
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Worst market liquidity in ~2 years. Liquidity has thinned during the selloffs. $ES_F depth fell to 5th%ile relative to the past 2 years, as ETF share of total volume climbed to the 97th%ile. On the surface, a stock pickers market, but volume is not there for individual stocks.
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With recent fears around overinvestment & a perceived lack of ROI, the narrative increasingly appears driven by price action rather than underlying fundamentals. Meta is a clear example of measurable AI ROI, with AI-driven improvements to ad targeting, ranking, & engagement
“Now send Mag-7 to highs now that they piled into consumer staples at 40X earnings”
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🚨Incredible: S&P 100 This is the greatest underperformance in the Megas vs. $SPX since Great Financial Crisis. Last time 63-day ROC was this large was ABSOLUTE LOW in 2022. Either end of the world is near, or near-term inflection. $OEX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $NVDA $META $TSLA
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Long Gold is the most overcrowded trade and FMS investors see AI bubble as the biggest tail risk
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Per MS, Mega-cap Tech is the most underowned in 17-years with Nvidia being the most underowned of the group
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Fund managers are really, really long equities + commodities. Biggest net long allocation since January of 2022 according to BofA. If this is like prior cycles, that means ISM manufacturing could be about to boom. We're already seeing the regulatory and investment environment
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Fund managers still see long gold as the most crowded trade, per BofA 🤔
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