₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い
@BeenThereCap
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Semi-retired hedge fund founder. Ex hot-shot lawyer, ex hot-shot strategy consultant. Macro+picks in crypto, commodities, tech, old-economy & a few special sits
Joined May 2011
I nailed the GFC - saw it coming, heavily shorted into it, kept making money running net-flat for months while most were getting destroyed. Then I botched the turn, getting net short early into a monster rally and giving back more than half my fund's outperformance. 1/4
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Oh look, it's now Friday *afternoon.* The morning was just a taste.
I can look at the S&P500 futures charts, 5 minutes into the cash market open, and already say it: Oh look, it's Friday into a "don't-want-to-carry-risk" weekend. (1-hour chart on the left, 8-hour on the right)
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Alternatively: At support again. But not even I am going to cover $IONQ 25% below where I shorted it 2 weeks ago. Its Friday afternoon during an oil war. 2/2
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Come on, guys. You can do it. Break. $SMR $LEU $IONQ 1/2
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I have learned 2 new things about #uranium & its mining stocks this year: 1. Even with the value case now clear to everyone, its average investor is still very much not a value investor. He is a momo chaser. 2. He also owns gold or gold miners. E.g.: SPX -1.5% today, $URNM -6%
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3. All these $40 billion worth of SMRs will be built in the exact same area for which NuScale allegedly has a big but *non-binding* MOU from the US government to build "up to" $6 billion of NuScale's SMRs. Which MOU may now be dead. 3/3
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A bigger-picture recap of what happened to NuScale $SMR yesterday: 1. US & Japan governments committed $40 billion to build SMRs. For the ~15th time out of 15 in the US, it wasn't to NuScale... 2. ...even though they selected a traditional light water reactor, like NuScale's 1/2
BLOOMBERG: Trump is set to announce a $40B deal for GE Vernova & Hitachi to build SMRs in Tennessee & Alabama. Those states are the TVA's core footprint (map). The TVA has a big but non-binding MOU with NuScale $SMR. GE Vernova's SMR uses the same light-water tech as $SMR. 1/2
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"Eastern Pacific." Thanks for the specificity. I can use a bit of logic to narrow the area down to this.
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) has announced the kinetic strike on a low-profile vessel in the Eastern Pacific Ocean operated by a designated terrorist organization. The U.S. Coast Guard was notified following the strike to begin search & rescue operations for 3 survivors.
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Oil (and gas) prices may be driving the 10-year Treasury yield right now, but the 10-year drives the world, even more than oil. And the 10-year does not like this war. Oil's price will fall materially on the day Trump TACOs. I'm not sure the 10-year will.
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You've probably seen the news of US sending more troops to Iran. To me the important part is where they're sailing from. San Diego. I checked last night: It will take 30-40 days for them to get to the Gulf of Oman. I hope this unit is for a contingency plan, not *the* plan.
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No. Hard no. Trump, for all his faults - including ones specifically relevant to Iran, which I call out daily - is very good at keeping the main thing the main thing, when it's important to him. Iran's nuclear capabilities are the main thing.
This has been a good lesson in avoiding over-indexing on Trump's particular comments re: Iran policy. He says "Iran must not have a nuclear weapon" regardless of whatever the issue at hand might be. It's just something he likes to say. So he says it a lot.
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Duh. It would be a fantastic trade for Putin. More than 10:1 benefit/cost for Russia, maybe 50:1.
PUTIN WOULD HALT INTEL TO IRAN IF US CUTS OFF UKRAINE: POLITICO PUTIN OFFERS TO STOP SHARING INTEL WITH IRAN: POLITICO
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#silver: I warned you Wednesday (just before the new -15% crash). I warned you Thursday (after the ~50% retrace of the crash). I'm warning you today. The price has already given back half that retrace. Dead cat bounces can be fractals (successively smaller).
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Those Qatar numbers probably merit a reprint of my meme of Trump to the Gulf states: 3/x
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I can look at the S&P500 futures charts, 5 minutes into the cash market open, and already say it: Oh look, it's Friday into a "don't-want-to-carry-risk" weekend. (1-hour chart on the left, 8-hour on the right)
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CHART OF THE DAY: The White House is fighting to keep the price of WTI crude oil under $100 a barrel. But for America's Main Street what truly matters isn't the price of crude, but the cost of refined products — and those are rising fast. Link to my @Opinion column on reply.
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LESS OBVIOUS: IL - Few refineries in or nearby (a quirk of fate); high taxes in Chicago metro AZ - Phoenix area requires a special blend to meet federal air quality standards, produced only in CA & El Paso NV - No refineries, gets all its gas from CA ID - No refineries 2/2
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Why is gas so expensive in these red states? For some it's obvious, others less so OBVIOUS: CA/OR/WA - Extra-heavy regulation, special fuel blend mandates, high taxes, & they've effectively forced many refineries to give up & shut down AK/HI - Isolated with few/no refineries 1/2
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$11 per MMbtu avg sale price, $2.20 avg variable cash cost for production + liquification; 80% margin $80B x 80% = $64B Throw in $1B for repair capex) *Countered by: gas not produced in 2026-2028 can be produced & sold in future years. 2/2
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Iran's one strike on the Qatar gas field facility is allegedly going to cost Qatar something like $65 billion in short-term* profits. That is asymmetric warfare as its most asymmetric. (Math: Qatar says $20B/year lost revenue, 3-5 years to repair. 20 x 4 = $80B revenue 1/2
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