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To give an example of the power of differential fertility, in 1950 Iraq had 5.7m people vs 103m in Russia, 1:18 ratio. 260k births vs 2.9m, 1:11 ratio, in 2022 Iraq had 1.34m births to 1.31m in Russia. In a single lifetime, 72 years Iraq has gone from 1/11 as many births to more.
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Is it a coincidence that the 3 large countries in the EU with lowest TFR, Spain (1.13), Poland (1.15) & Italy (1.21) are all former catholic countries that secularized rapidly, I think it is plausible there is some relationship between these factors.
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It’s interesting how Christianity is declining faster in Anglo countries than Pew thought.
Pew projection from 2015: % Christian in UK
2010: 64%,
2050: 45%
2021 census: 46%
Canada
2010: 69%,
2050: 60%
2021 census: 53%
Australia
2010: 67%,
2050: 47%
2021 census: 44%
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In 2022, White British births in E & W dropped below 60% for first time, were at 59%, decline since 2007 has been linear:
2007: 70%
2012: 67%
2017: 63%
2022: 59%
White British births are on track to be minority by mid 2030's in England & Wales, across UK as whole by late 2030's.
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One thing in my view that histories of decline of European power post ww2 miss is how much is a result of smaller pop share. Europe had 22% of world pop in 1950, today 9% with 4.8% of global births. If Europe had 1.76 billion people today, would be far more influential.
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Interesting factoid is world TFR excluding Africa is just 1.7 rounded to nearest 0.05, by my est the exact figure is likely 1.73 as of 2022. If a country has a TFR above 1.7, than it is above the global TFR average excluding Africa, shows how low TFR is outside Africa generally.
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Poland TFR was 1.26 in '22, on track for 1.15 in '23, lowest in its history and among the lowest in EU, will mean large pop decline post 2030, yet new PM doesn't seem to care at all. PL is one of those countries with very low TFR yet has a govt who isn't that concerned about it
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In terms of an assessment of Gorbachev, it can be be said he was one of the worst leaders of the 20th century. He oversaw the complete disintegration and elimination of his state and unlike Hitler etc he did not even lose a war but instead stood back and let his country disappear
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Another large scale example is Pakistan Europe, in 1950, 37m in modern day pakistan vs 550m in Europe, 1:15 ratio, last year Europe likely had 6.5m births vs 6.2m in Pakistan, likely Pakistan overtakes Europe in births in next few years.
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Argentina's TFR decline over 2015-2022 matches almost exactly Russia's in 1987-1994. Russian TFR went from 2.22 in 1987 to 1.39 in 1994, 37% decline in 7 years. Argentina from 2.24 in 2015 to 1.36 in 2022, 39% decline.
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US 2022 final birth data, TFR (2021 TFR), all single races are non hispanic.
US: 1.657 (1.664) (-0.4%)
White: 1.568 (1.599) (-1.9%)
Black: 1.639 (1.675) (-2.1%)
Asian: 1.353 (1.352) (+0.1%)
Hispanic: 1.97 (1.899) (+3.7%)
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Few people thought in 1950 that W. Pakistan with 37m people could end up with more people than Europe which had 550m one day but it looks quite plausible that might happen later this century. differential fertility which is an outcome of modernity is an extremely powerful force.
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RU demographic data for 2023, possible to assess impact of war, births down 3.1% to 1.265m, implied TFR down to 1.41 from 1.42, not much of an impact. Deaths down to 1.76m, implies life expectancy of 74. Infant mortality rate down to 4.2/1000 from 4.5/1000.
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Russia 2021 census results on ethnicity, among those who chose an ethnicity, share of ethnic Russians went from 80.9% in 2010 to 80.8% in 2022. Combined Russian, Belarusian & Ukrainian share went from 82.7% to 81.8%.
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Fertility seems to be falling for 90's cohorts in metropolitan France, here is fertility by age 30, year of birth:
1973: 1.12
1983: 1.10
1993: 0.89
No change from '73-'83, big drop in '93 cohort, decline more severe if you move to younger cohorts, CCF for 90's cohorts may be 1.8.
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Quite plausible that Thailand will become the most populous country to go below a TFR of 1, Korea has 51m, Thailand 66m, had TFR of 1.04 last year, births down 10% in first 2 months.
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Interesting how rise in childlessness & growth of 3rd order & higher births have perfectly offset each other in RU.
1970 cohort: 7.7% childless, 12.5% 3rd order+, CCF = 1.6
1990 cohort: 20.8% childless, 21% 3rd order+, CCF = 1.62
1990 cohort is proj with data through to 2020.
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@FistedFoucault
Europe transitioned to low fertility even when mortality was very high because they embraced liberal ideas like women's education and secularism very early. When the UK had the infant mortality Afghanistan does today, UK TFR was already 2 vs 5.4 in Afghanistan today.
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Notable how little Christian share of pop of West Asia fell from 1400-1900, and how it fell so heavily in 20th cent. emigration played a part but I think the emergence of a TFR differential was important, TFR seems to have declined among Christians before it did among Muslims.
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The net impact globally by my estimation is Christian share of world pop is 28% now, Islam is next at 26%, Christianity will be overtaken in the 2030’s by Islam and its future is African. Democratic Republic of Congo is on verge of having more Christian births than all of Europe
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Births in China down to 10.6m in 2021 vs 12m in 2020, 11.7% decline, my estimate for Chinese TFR is 1.15 for 2021.
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In these countries, Christian share in early 2020’s is already at or below where Pew thought it would be by 2050. Christianity is declining faster in Europe as well, Poland was supposed to be 87% Christian by 2050, is already at 72%.
Latin America is also showing decline now.
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@Peter_Nimitz
In Kursk, German forces committed 900,000 personnel on average and lost 50,000 killed or missing over 50 days of combat, averaging 1000 per day or 1.1 per 1000 men engaged per day. Armenia had 30,000 men engaged, 4,000 dead, 44 days, loss rate of 3 per 1000 men per day.
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A decade ago, there were countless articles about how countries needed to copy Nordic system, how Nordic countries were effective at combining parenting with work for women and so having higher TFR. Finlands TFR this year likely same as Italy, all nordic countries have collapsed.
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How fast can demographic change be, from early 5th century to early 6th century, 100 year period, share of Anglo Saxon dna in English population rose from 0% to 25%.
From 1951 - 2021, 70 year period share of white British in England went from 100% to 74%, 26% drop in 70 years.
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To give an idea of just how old countries like Italy have gotten, on 1 jan 2023 there were 395,000 Italians under the age of 1, there were 413,000 aged 84. Italy has more people that are 84 years old than it does under 1, we have never seen societies like this.
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For all the talk about Russia being a diverse country or a multi ethnic one, main ethnic group share of pop is higher than in UK or many Western European countries, 50 years ago Russia was more diverse then say the UK but Russia is more homogenous now than much of W. Europe.
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Interesting that Russia now has a lower infant mortality rate, lower homicide rate and lower suicide rate than the US, in 2021, IMR was 4.5/1000 in Russia vs 5.4/1000 in US, homicide rate was 4/100,000 vs 6.9/100,000 and suicide rate was 10.7/100,000 vs 14/100,000.
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@nonebusinesshey
One point I would raise is Hispanic net migration hence the Hispanic pop size are being underestimated, so Hispanic TFR in reality is lower. I think its likely by the end of the decade, white TFR overtakes black TFR, all the pro natalist religious groups in US are heavily white
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Data on pregnancies in Ukraine, 68k in Feb 24 - Oct 6 vs 147k same period ‘21, suggests 110-115k births next year, even with emigration, would mean Ukraine would have lowest crude birth rate of any nation in recorded history.
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It seems remarkable to some that a small country like Britain was so dominant in say 1910, but in terms of share of world pop, it wasn't that low, in 1910 British Isles had 2.5% of world pop, like a country having 200m today, large base off which to be a dominant power.
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Uzbekistan is on track to become the first country in history to exceed a TFR of 3.5 this year after dropping below it. A lot of demographic theories about TFR decline have been proven wrong because of countries like Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc
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Chinese birth data for '22 out, 9.56m births, suggests TFR of 1.05, geopolitically, means US up to 38% of Chinese births, highest figure ever, India at 2.4x Chinese births now, 23m vs 9.6m, globally, China at 7.4% of all births vs 17.6% of world pop.
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@akarlin0
Russia has plenty of equipment and firepower, both vehicles and artillery shells but needs more infantry, Belarusian army will be of use in this regard.
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High mortality in Italy currently maybe partially due to older Italians having poorer lung function.
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@BirthGauge
More evidence that when catholic countries secularise their TFR collapses. With Brazil down to 1.5 and Mexico down to 1.8 and falling, not long before US TFR is above the average for the Americas for the first time since the 19th century.
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S. Korea increased its share of world GDP continuously from 1960-2020, now it is growing slower than world GDP for first time in 60 years, GDP per capita convergence is over, share of world pop declining so its share of world GDP will decline going forward decade after decade.
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To give an idea of how much demographics have shifted in Europe since 80's, in '83, 40 years ago there were 721k births in Poland vs 721k in UK & 748k in France. 807k in Ukraine vs 828k in DE. Today, UK & FR 670- 690k, DE 740k, Poland 300k, Ukraine under 200k, was at 270k in '21
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Histories of European decline focus to much on ideological change post ww2 and not enough on demographic change, if UK had same share of world pop today as it did in 1950 for example, it would have 160 million people.
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One thing war in Ukr has shown is how many “right wingers” in Europe are just low IQ types that you can easily convince to hate anyone you want. A point on which
@powerfultakes
is 100% correct. Many of these may one day serve as cannon fodder for the elites they claim to oppose.
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A country like Argentina that has seen a huge TFR decline since 2015 is South Korea, was at 1.24 in 2015, headed for 0.72 this year, could be lower depending on how final months turn out, 42% decline, from 1.24 to 0.72 over 8 years. Has to be among fastest in world since 2015.
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Jilin had 23m pop & 88k births, Niger is est to have 27m pop & 1.22m births, 1.2x the pop, 14x the births. TFR differentials existed pre 1800 to some extent, but large differentials are recent phenomena, TFR differentials for first time in human history are playing a big role.
@BirthGauge
China, Jilin Province (pop. 23,394,100) number of births
2023 - 88,400 (-13.58%)
2022 - 102,300
Crude Birth Rate - 3.77 (4.5 in South Korea in 2023)
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The amount of excess deaths caused by LE decline post 1991 is something that should be highlighted as well, there were around 13m more deaths in Russia in 1991-2010 then there would have been had LE stayed at 1980’s levels which it recovered to by 2010.
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Add in excess deaths in Ukraine as well and Gorbachev’s failure resulted in 18m excess deaths in Russia and Ukraine in 20 years following USSR collapse, 2x as many people as died in famines and executions under Stalin.
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@Peter_Nimitz
Armenian losses in terms of killed and missing were 3x as severe relative to amount of men committed and length of time as German losses at Kursk.
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Estonia has TFR of 1.3, faces massive pop decline in coming years, yet is cutting child benefits.
In order to spend more on getting ready to fight Russia. In low TFR country facing big pop decline, cutting child benefits for mil. spending makes no sense.
I wrote on the planned Baltic Defence Line. “Estonian officials estimate their stretch of the border will need around 600 concrete bunkers, each 35 square metres, each capable of holding around ten soldiers and taking a hit from a large shell.”
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@devarbol
The post 2015 global fertility decline will be seen as one of the major events of the century quite possibly.
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Interesting how close both Russia & Germany have gotten to overtaking Japan in GDP, $4.8T for both vs $5.4T for Japan, both may overtake it this decade, story of Japan's relative decline
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20 years since counter jihad movement, mainly from the UK took off, let us look at its achievements.
Christian %, England & Wales:
2001: 72%
2021: 46%
Islam %, England & Wales:
2001: 3.1%
2021: 6.7%
Christian/Muslim multiple
2001: 23x
2021: 7x
Among 0-14 year olds: 3.2x
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First time Australia has been below 1.6, all time record low, interesting that America, Canada, UK and Australia all hit record low fertility in 2020, Anglo world moving together.
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@BirthGauge
I think Poland is pretty close to reaching its minimum, higher order births are high enough and culture is different from East Asia that I don't think Poland will go below 1.1, I might be wrong though, so far European countries have kept levels above East Asian levels.
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@orientalismus
People who don’t know historical demography don’t understand why balkans was more important for ottomans than Middle East. Romania used to have more people than Egypt, Bulgaria had more then Iraq. Today 2.2m births Egypt vs 160k Romania. 1.3m Iraq vs 60k Bulgaria.
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With 300k reservists mobilised plus 170k regular, 470k troops in Israel, 6.5% of its Jewish pop. If Ukraine had that level of mobilisation in feb ‘22, would have had 2.4 million troops, even today it would have 1.8 million.
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Excluding countries at war, Moldova has held the world record for population decline since mid 2010's, population was 2.826m on 1 Jan 2016, declined to 2.513m by 1 Jan 2023, 11.1% decline over 7 years.
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Russia remains far below EU average in LE which is 81, although only 4 years below where US was in 2023 (78) by my est. Considering US LE has not grown since 2011, possible Russia catches up with US in LE by early 2030's but rest of Europe will remain far ahead for a long time.
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White British will become a minority around 40 years after that point, so by the 2070's. Native ethnic group's share of births declining is a common feature across all large European countries except Russia, will make for interesting societies and politics going forward.
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Notable that Iran and North Korea are helping Russia despite Russia having voted multiple times to sanction them to please the US whereas all the countries that Russia didn’t sanction and tried to be really friendly with haven’t supplied any weapons to it.
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Interesting to note as of 2023, Bulgaria has highest TFR out of all of these countries, also among most young people living at home. Italy has 47% living at home vs 4% for Finland yet both countries have almost identical fertility.
Second, failure to launch. Family culture is great, but becomes a big problem if it means that young adults are still at home. Countries with a large share of young people living with their parents have lower fertility. 43% of Poles age 25-34 still live at home. (5/8)
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@BirthGauge
One thing that will be funny in the coming years is because China's population is so huge, even small rates of decline translate into massive numbers in absolute terms. When China reaches -7/1000 it will be losing 9 million a year as its pop will be 1.3 billion by that point.
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Low TFR in SK having real military consequences, NK TFR around 1.9, in SK will be 0.9 this year, 2x differential, if NK simply waits a few decades, on current trends, will be few young people left in SK
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To give an idea of how low this is, Israel averages 15,000 births a month and has 1/5 the pop Korea does. Korean TFR dropping below 0.7 this year is now possible.
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Why shouldn’t Europeans treat their nominal masters like royalty, a single American house member is more important then than the entire parliament of some random european country whose purpose to exist is to serve as cannon fodder to fight America’s enemies.
One thing I noted at Munich: just how self-important, incurious and bubble-like the congressional delegations can be. Also: how much Europeans still fawn over them. At one event the senators & congressmen treated like royalty; Ukrainian & other MPs relegated to the sidelines.
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@usutav
Estonian Govt should be more worried about the fact it’s TFR is likely to be 1.3 this year, not increasing child payments is insane in this context.
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@akarlin0
It’s the most impressive thing by far about the Russian operation, very high effectiveness rate of their missile forces.
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Pakistan overtaking China in population eventually may be the meaning of the age of Malthusian Industrialism. Humanity will be stuck on the planet and tech progress trend towards zero as high IQ populations shrink absent AI breakout.
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India's GDP in PPP terms is now bigger relative to the US than Japan was at its peak, yet people in the US don't really seem to be afraid of India, it could plausibly catch up with US GDP one day, it has nuclear weapons and many in India want to see American hegemony lessened.
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As far as we can tell, there was no TFR difference between Christians & Muslims in Middle East through all of history from the 7th century to the 19th, it emerged in the 20th. The role of TFR differentials in driving rapid demographic change is a completely modern phenomena.
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Clear fertility behavior is driven by cultural values and worldview. When America had a IMR of 55, its TFR was 2.2
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@BirthGauge
The UN pop revision coming out next month I think will see big downward revisions in proj pop in 2050 and 2100, births are far below UN forecast in many countries, including big ones like China, world pop may only get to 10B before peaking.
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@BirthGauge
It’s interesting Iran used to be poorest country in the Middle East relative to TFR, which seemed to imply there was something in Iran that made its TFR fall further than other countries, now there are 2 countries, Tunisia & Azerbaijan that are poorer than it and have lower TFR.
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@usutav
What’s happened to many Eastern European countries since 1991 culturally is very sad. Many Eastern Europeans who are anti Russian should grasp that hate leads to hate and if they make Russians hate them, in the future a russia of 150m run by nationalists will be bad for them
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@17cShyteposter
I agree, the violence was not that much, I think it’s because the film refuses to cede any ground to modern morality that causes many liberal critics to not like it.
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How much has world demo. changed since 1950, only 74 years, 1 lifetime, Tanzania (TZ) pop in '50 = 8m same level as Portugal, Czechia, Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria in '50 7.3m - 9.3m, those countries today have between 50,000 (Bulgaria) - 90,000 (Czechia) births
TZ has 2.3m births
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“In 10 years you will not be able to recognise Ukraine” - euro maidan activist Feb 21 2014.
Well we are approaching the 10th anniversary and the activist was right.
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Notable despite the war, Ukraine's CBR is similar to Poland, 187k births with 28m people in UKR in 2023, CBR of 6.7/1000, PL had 272k births with 38m, CBR of 7.2/1000. TFR has not fallen much in UKR due to war although births have as 30% of women of childbearing age have left.
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@akarlin0
If I was Zhirik and realised what had occurred my first thought would be I had died and gone to heaven.
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@BirthGauge
339k births in March - July ‘23 suggests annual rate of 1.017m, large decline from ‘22. Will 2023 be last year in which Iranian births exceed 1m, possibly, TFR getting close to 1.5
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Afghanistan has 85% of the population having mobile phones, infant mortality is down to 55/1000 yet TFR decline has completely stopped. Same story in Pakistan, TFR has just been at 3.7 for over a decade now. It has risen in Uzbekistan from 2.3 to 3.3 as of last year.
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In meta historical terms, it’s notable the number of Europeans peaked in 2000 and the number of East Asians in 2020, only a 20 year difference, which in the historical perspective is a very short duration.
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Many people have compared Ukraine to Israel & Gaza, demographically an interesting fact is births in Gaza + West Bank + muslims in Israel amount to 180k per annum, Ukraine on track for 195k this year. 7m Palestinians will soon have more births then 28m Ukrainians.
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@Peter_Nimitz
Much of the Levant and N. Africa maxed out potential pop with pre-industral agri tech in late 1st Millennium BC, in many of these areas, pop levels were same in 1900AD as 100BC, N. Europe had room to expand food output due to more arable land and did during the 1st Millennium AD
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@powerfultakes
It is amazing in one sense that the country in Europe with the most Europeans and one of the pillars of European civilisation over the last few centuries in terms of culture, literature, music, art etc is forced to align with the non European world to defend itself against Europe
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@Aaronal16
Funny thing is that children are main source of happiness for most people and only women in african countries report reaching desired levels of TFR. All over Europe women have less kids than they want, massive societal failure which causes less happiness but nobody talks about it
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Another point on Ukraine, on the 1st day either side killed several times more civilians than Russia has ever killed in Ukraine on any given day, despite having far more firepower. Testament to the superhuman efforts Russian forces have made to minimise civilian deaths.
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In terms of a big population with high GDP per capita that has high TFR, Texas stands out, 31m people, $86k gdp per capita, TFR of 1.8. Has slightly fewer births than Italy which has 59m and will likely overtake Italy in next few years.
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Euromaidan began 10 years ago, what did it achieve? 45 million people living in Ukr in late 2013, 10 years later, 28 million people.
Ukr is a case study in how ethnic hatred against a group that forms most of the pop of a stronger country next to you leads to your destruction.
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This is far more likely to be the outcome than a well organised insurgency.
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@powerfultakes
It didn’t have to be this way but the deep racial hatred of Europeans and white Americans towards Russians has left Russia no choice but to pursue closer ties and align with non white nations.
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Demographic change in England since 1950 exceeds Saxon impact. By early 8th century anglo Saxon share was up to 35% of dna and stayed constant, so 300 years it went from 0% to 35%, 35% change
White British share of births in England in 70 years went from 100% to 60%, 40% change.
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@BirthGauge
Widening urban rural TFR gap has been big story since 2010 in many developed countries. In US for example, rural TFR has declined less since 2010 then big metros.
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On hospital in Gaza, firstly civilians die in war and both sides kill civilians, if you support one side it should be for religious/ideological/geopolitical reasons, not because one side kills civilians and the other does not.
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@akarlin0
In 2010, Rosstat est 141.9m, census found 142.9m, 0.7% more, in nov 1 2021, est is 145.7m, if 147m, 0.9% more. US 2020 also 0.7% more in census than est, underestimating migration is to be expected. Russia remains only country in E. Europe where census shows more pop than est.
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@BirthGauge
One big outcome of the last decade has been the ending of the Nordic fertility model, they have converged to the European average and in case of Finland gone below it.
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Regarding the Azeri victory in Karabakh, and the defeat of the Armenians, I think the quote below sums up well the nature of international relations & history going back to the dawn of civilization.
"The weak are slaughtered and erased from history while the strong endure."
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Births in big W. EU countries around 90% of '83 levels, 40% in Poland, 35% in Ukraine pre war. Romania at 50% of '83 levels. Entire balance of demographics is shifting to the west in EU. French & German power in EU will grow as Eastern European countries like Poland decline.
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@BirthGauge
Rapid secularization in heavily catholic countries in Europe is often associated with low TFR, PL might be no exception, ironically, Russia might be the only big country in Eastern Europe to avoid fertility decline this year, albeit it is already quite low at 1.42
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This will go down as one of the most based quotes thus far of the century
"now the ukrainians destroy lenin monuments and want decommunization. you want decommunization? we can show you what REAL DECOMMUNIZATION means in ukraine."
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